Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
ranagrande Send a noteboard - 19/11/2010 03:48:52 PM
We need to lynch Isaac. It's really the only logical choice. I know some of you want to respect his request for more time, but really, what can he possibly say?
A lot
Well say it already then.

A claimed Cop who is unchallenged in that claim also claims to have found him guilty. That's as solid a reason to lynch as we could possibly ask for. As an added bonus, thanks to our unchallenged claimed Tracker, we know that Isaac was indeed targeted by our unchallenged claimed Cop.
We don't "know" that. Kronin's claim is backed up by his HC, but were he scum that would mean no more than he saw the option for a RC of that type. Considering its basically established beyond reasonable doubt that at least one scummer voted for me, if you are accepting both Kronin and Ft as town, that leaves only 4 votes - yours, Amys, Bergioyn, and ? I'd have second thoughts about eliminating who the scummer vote(s) could be from.
Don't worry. I still suspect everyone to varying degrees. I am less suspicious of Kronin and F-T now than I am of most people, simply because Cop and Tracker are dangerous claims to make if untrue and no one has called them out on it.
I admit that the numbers are interesting, but I do see plenty of ways that it could have happened.
I find it extremely odd that Isaac was brought to the very brink -- one punctuation mark away from being lynched -- when all we had to go on was the perception of some of his behavior being anti-town, but after F-T dropped his bombshell the case seems to have actually lost momentum. It makes no sense.
Pretty simple reason, I have third-party verifiable proof of my claim of SPLOG-weirdness predating FT's claim and even his HC, doesn't prove the claim but it removes the option of it being a last desperate gamble. We also have 4 investigatory claims right now, so the SPLOG is reasonably viewed as about as likely to be accurate as random guessing would be. I also find it a bit weird that you now say all we had to go was a perception of anti-town behavior yet you voted for me, unvoted, then voted again, all before the cop revelation.
There's nothing weird about that at all. In fact, that's basically been my MO for lynching since the first game I played here. As I said the first time, I basically voted for you because your attempt to get a no-lynch struck me as being anti-town. If we have eleven players in the game, and exactly one of them is acting scummy, who does it make the most sense to lynch? I've voted off of far less before.
Also, you keep insisting that four investigative roles is too many and using that as proof that the SPLOG must be broken. In my game, the town had six investigators. Going back to your "proof" about the SPLOG though, why would you have any such information while your masons did not? Wouldn't the Thing be the least likely member of the Fantastic Four to know the details of Reed's experiments?
By all appearances, Isaac is probably scum. If he does still turn out to be innocent after all this, we'd probably have to kill F-T tomorrow, but I think that's very unlikely. Either way, I've seen enough to have some ideas of who could be Skrull allies anyway.
You propose killing FT in spite of the fact that no one has counter-claimed having the SPLOG, and Kronin says he tracked him to me? Its pretty clear FT has the thing, he can't be scum, why would we lynch him if I'm innocent?
Why is it so clear that he can't be scum if has the SPLOG? What was there to prevent a Skrull from grabbing it instead of She-Hulk? If the Cop role were to be compromised, I think that would be the way to do it; it would be a nice comic bookish twist that would give near def-town status to a scummer. I don't really believe that at all, but it's a possibility.
I suspect it's all a moot point now anyway, because I'm convinced now that you are indeed scum.
So, nothing personal, Isaac, but this is how it needs to begin. Your death message will dictate the course of this game.
Or yours
Vote: Ranagrande
Nice, an OMGUS vote. This, incidentally, is why I am now completely convinced of your guilt. Even discounting our differing opinions about no-lynches and the like, you are the one who came up positive and you are the one whose death will certify the sanity of our cop. My death would accomplish nothing.
And you're too good and too logical of a player not to realize that. I can understand the element of self-preservation and wanting to stay in the game, but if you were a townie you would have to at least recognize the value in lynching you today.
We know that even if I'm scum at least one scummer voted for me, even if they only have 3 and with 4 investigatory roles, fist's up-gunned role and virtually everyone else apparently roled 3 seems unlikely. BEst odds are at least two scummers voted for me and it's not logically consistent that FT or Kronin would be them.
That just leaves you, Amys, Bergioyn, and ?
But ? could have hit me right at the end, he'd have attracted no more suspicion by correcting his vote then by simply casting it. We can't say anything about Amys, she voted and has disappeared beyond lurking, not even opening coin bid NBs, then there's you and Bergioyn.
We've already covered how unlikely bussing should have been under the circumstances and how it's necessary under essentially any model for at least one scummer to have voted for me, that makes me very unlikely to be a scummer, but its also still unlikely that only one scummer voted for me, that 'only one' is based off multiple improbable assumptions needing to be true for each case. The data favors no less than 2 scummers voting for me, an even more absurd bussing case, and it means two of those 4 votes on me besides FT and Kronin are scum.
You're the most probable candidate to be one. You voted on very slim evidence like the others, but Amys and ? are pretty new, don't really have a handle on what is lynch-worthy evidence. Whereas Bergioyn hesitated to vote initially, saying he was suspicious of me and FT, that he wanted to hear more details, then finally voted and said he'd unvote when my mason buds confirmed, you voted after him, taking me to L-1 and didn't unvote even when DK warned you so, nor were you likely not to have realized a bandwagon vote was underway.
That just leaves you, Amys, Bergioyn, and ?
But ? could have hit me right at the end, he'd have attracted no more suspicion by correcting his vote then by simply casting it. We can't say anything about Amys, she voted and has disappeared beyond lurking, not even opening coin bid NBs, then there's you and Bergioyn.
We've already covered how unlikely bussing should have been under the circumstances and how it's necessary under essentially any model for at least one scummer to have voted for me, that makes me very unlikely to be a scummer, but its also still unlikely that only one scummer voted for me, that 'only one' is based off multiple improbable assumptions needing to be true for each case. The data favors no less than 2 scummers voting for me, an even more absurd bussing case, and it means two of those 4 votes on me besides FT and Kronin are scum.
You're the most probable candidate to be one. You voted on very slim evidence like the others, but Amys and ? are pretty new, don't really have a handle on what is lynch-worthy evidence. Whereas Bergioyn hesitated to vote initially, saying he was suspicious of me and FT, that he wanted to hear more details, then finally voted and said he'd unvote when my mason buds confirmed, you voted after him, taking me to L-1 and didn't unvote even when DK warned you so, nor were you likely not to have realized a bandwagon vote was underway.
Evidence for lynches isn't about quality or quantity, it's about relativity. If I have slim evidence against you and no evidence against anyone else, you're most likely going to get my vote.
My vote took you to L-2, not L-1. Had I known ? was going to vote less than two minutes after me, I might have considered holding back. I did Unvote the next time I logged in, as per your request so you could offer your defense.
Throughout you've seemed primarily interested in just getting a lynch, yet while others who did vote have potential clear reasons, you really do not:
Right, so people without specific role-related information shouldn't be trying to catch scum?
FT - copped me, thought I was suspicious and clearly after getting the result took the more sinister interpretation of all my actions
Kronin - Tracked FT, knew he'd done something to me and knew he'd HC'd me guilty, must have seriously considered FT was the cop, his first reaction to the claim was genuine in my opinion, then he thought about how improbable three fully working investigators (now 4) was and wanted time, unvoted
? - I pushed on him pretty hard early today as a possible scummer, yet with every reasonable chance as townie or scummer busser to have finished off the lynch by simply resending with a colon, he never has, even though he posted before anyone else unvoted. Had he been scum and just wanted me dead, regardless of alignment, from bussing or a desire to kill a townie, he had it right there without any realistic chance of repercussion beyond what he'd already have gotten by voting in the first place. He's also fairly new, and not steeped in a lot of our tactics, as reveale dby his responses during my grilling of him, I don't think he'd bee too likely to 'bus' me. He might be scum and me townie, but he's an even worse case for bussing than others, and if scum, too easy to just repeat the vote.
Kronin - Tracked FT, knew he'd done something to me and knew he'd HC'd me guilty, must have seriously considered FT was the cop, his first reaction to the claim was genuine in my opinion, then he thought about how improbable three fully working investigators (now 4) was and wanted time, unvoted
? - I pushed on him pretty hard early today as a possible scummer, yet with every reasonable chance as townie or scummer busser to have finished off the lynch by simply resending with a colon, he never has, even though he posted before anyone else unvoted. Had he been scum and just wanted me dead, regardless of alignment, from bussing or a desire to kill a townie, he had it right there without any realistic chance of repercussion beyond what he'd already have gotten by voting in the first place. He's also fairly new, and not steeped in a lot of our tactics, as reveale dby his responses during my grilling of him, I don't think he'd bee too likely to 'bus' me. He might be scum and me townie, but he's an even worse case for bussing than others, and if scum, too easy to just repeat the vote.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if you and ? were Skrull together. You were each masons in different groups. He joined you in voting for a no-lynch. You might say you "pushed on him pretty hard" but your case was actually pretty weak and never could have gone anywhere. It easily could have been designed to create separation between the two of you.
Then there was his not-quite-vote... His post afterwards seemed to be one of indignation, but as you say, he never corrected it to make his vote count, although he could have easily done so. As ridiculous as it sounds, I could almost believe that you worked out the colon thing ahead of time.
Amys - Just gone right now, my nominal hammer vote, I'd like to hear from her but if she doesn't open up my Coin Game Bid pretty soon we'll have to assume she's gone, who vote off, etc. She's new too, not likely to rapid bus someone if she saw it, but that new status excuses jumping on a bandwagon without realizing the repercussions, though she's pretty high on my list too
Bergioyn - He unvoted, has voted since, was very dubious about the evidence and voted after FT pushed on him, offering himself as Day 3 lynch if I died town.
So, with at least one scummer in the vote mix for me even if I were scum, you had the least reason as town to vote, and you've now expressed an intent to kill FT if I come up town even though every shred of proof indicates he's town.
Bergioyn - He unvoted, has voted since, was very dubious about the evidence and voted after FT pushed on him, offering himself as Day 3 lynch if I died town.
So, with at least one scummer in the vote mix for me even if I were scum, you had the least reason as town to vote, and you've now expressed an intent to kill FT if I come up town even though every shred of proof indicates he's town.
I really don't think that will be an issue anyway.
Your also trying to end the day early when we should be trying to make it so our investigators can narrow down who to target tonight from the list of 5 voters besides FT, makes no sense.
Reading their posts, our investigators already know who they're targeting. There may very well be scum that voted for you even if you are Skrull, but there are probably more who didn't.
RAFO Mafia 19: Superlative Crisis! ISSUE TWO: BLACK MAGIC- WHOA, MAN!
- 03/11/2010 04:59:59 AM
2748 Views
I see two avenues to discuss here
- 03/11/2010 11:41:14 AM
969 Views
I was thinking about number 1.
- 03/11/2010 10:00:57 PM
999 Views
Regarding 2, and let me suggets a 3
- 04/11/2010 02:30:41 AM
1041 Views
I, personally, agree with Isaac so here goes.
- 04/11/2010 11:33:07 PM
971 Views
O.......K..........
- 05/11/2010 11:43:14 PM
944 Views
Did Fist use his power last Night?
- 06/11/2010 03:41:05 AM
992 Views
It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 04:53:19 AM
968 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 05:30:00 PM
963 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
1005 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 08:18:16 AM
1048 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 03:38:37 PM
1020 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 06:42:10 PM
1041 Views
Huh, well Fox straight up told us his Mason group was a 3rd Fraction on Night 1
- 11/11/2010 12:55:50 AM
1011 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 06:16:29 PM
1064 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 07:16:20 PM
1000 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 09:29:12 PM
1083 Views
I am about 95% sure that WF targeted me last Night.
- 11/11/2010 01:04:34 AM
990 Views
Interesting.
- 11/11/2010 02:25:07 AM
1020 Views
It's certainly possible.
- 11/11/2010 02:39:00 AM
1011 Views
Now I'm curious
- 11/11/2010 03:33:46 AM
1044 Views
Presumably because I'm not trying to get her lynched.
- 11/11/2010 03:53:54 AM
1036 Views
Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
- 04/11/2010 05:41:04 AM
1062 Views
Re: Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
- 04/11/2010 04:18:17 PM
1072 Views
a scummer got caught on day one in the tower game
- 04/11/2010 06:42:15 PM
1053 Views
also there was that time someone said they saw a black light instead of white
- 04/11/2010 07:52:41 PM
998 Views
That was Hobo in DK's crossover game. *NM*
- 04/11/2010 08:16:07 PM
550 Views
You know we could just forget about that. I wouldn't complain.
*NM*
- 05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
597 Views
*NM*
- 05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
597 Views
Hypocop? *NM*
- 03/11/2010 03:20:17 PM
604 Views
So help me I will spoil the entirety of ToM, people! (not just yet, though)
- 10/11/2010 02:51:46 AM
934 Views
I'm pretty sure if you do, you'll be lynched. *NM*
- 10/11/2010 09:19:43 PM
558 Views
Vote: No Lynch
- 13/11/2010 12:24:43 AM
1011 Views
I am very much opposed to this idea
- 13/11/2010 02:04:27 PM
951 Views
Then offer an alternative
- 13/11/2010 11:10:42 PM
999 Views
Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
- 14/11/2010 04:03:35 AM
916 Views
Re: Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
- 14/11/2010 04:21:12 AM
982 Views
I had no RBIRL because my computer died.
- 14/11/2010 06:52:56 AM
914 Views
Ah, I see you did unvote. Very well. I still got my eye on you. *NM*
- 14/11/2010 06:55:30 AM
500 Views
LOL - I guess this is also my informal defense
- 14/11/2010 08:52:56 AM
980 Views
Saying it's not out-of-character to be scummy doesn't make you any less scummy.
- 14/11/2010 04:33:15 PM
993 Views
Watch the difference between what he says and what he is accused of.
- 14/11/2010 07:08:08 PM
897 Views
After this whole argument I've had with FT...
- 13/11/2010 11:42:32 PM
959 Views
People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
- 14/11/2010 03:43:14 AM
934 Views
Re: People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
- 14/11/2010 02:23:04 PM
1111 Views
Vote: Isaac
- 13/11/2010 11:58:56 PM
1045 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
- 14/11/2010 03:02:15 AM
954 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
- 14/11/2010 04:02:30 AM
1027 Views
What was scummy?
- 14/11/2010 04:10:12 AM
1059 Views
Re: What was scummy?
- 14/11/2010 05:41:44 AM
981 Views
Extrmely thin
- 14/11/2010 06:05:32 AM
1128 Views
Actually...
- 14/11/2010 06:55:02 AM
1040 Views
Re: Actually...
- 14/11/2010 07:44:33 AM
987 Views
Did you guys just blitz me?
- 14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
1022 Views
- 14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
1022 Views
Your not hammered yet are you?
- 14/11/2010 11:46:29 PM
942 Views
I think I might be, can never be sure what votes are worth in a heavy role game
- 14/11/2010 11:50:51 PM
976 Views
I'm potentially alive on a technicality
- 15/11/2010 12:02:36 AM
866 Views
Why don't you go ahead and claim then?
- 15/11/2010 12:11:03 AM
968 Views
Sure
- 15/11/2010 12:34:34 AM
941 Views
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
- 15/11/2010 02:13:23 AM
1052 Views
I think so.
- 15/11/2010 01:25:46 AM
933 Views
Also, I must confess...
- 15/11/2010 01:32:44 AM
943 Views
Re: Also, I must confess...
- 15/11/2010 01:58:26 AM
1076 Views
Yes, I would expect so.
- 15/11/2010 02:22:06 AM
888 Views
Re: Yes, I would expect so.
- 15/11/2010 02:35:49 AM
1002 Views
I'm unvoting only if the defence is really foolproof, since now no-one can hammer without instantly
- 15/11/2010 07:18:05 AM
981 Views
EBWOP - The "only" in the title is rebundant, it was part of different title I abandoned. *NM*
- 15/11/2010 07:19:46 AM
594 Views
I guess the first title stands afterall I won't automatically unvote just because none should hammer
- 15/11/2010 08:19:00 AM
893 Views
I'll try to help Isaac out a bit here.
- 15/11/2010 01:11:11 PM
820 Views
Thanks, and a question too
- 15/11/2010 01:30:17 PM
899 Views
Well, I'll unvote if the third mason comes forward too. *NM*
- 15/11/2010 03:30:36 PM
569 Views
Jeez, when it rains, it pours
- 15/11/2010 10:34:54 PM
857 Views
OK Isaac
- 15/11/2010 11:14:45 PM
914 Views
My Defense Posts
- 16/11/2010 04:16:41 AM
916 Views
Defense A: The Fantastic Four
- 16/11/2010 04:31:11 AM
974 Views
Defense B: The Numbers Game
- 16/11/2010 04:36:59 AM
970 Views
"What motive would a scummer have"?
- 16/11/2010 05:56:04 PM
946 Views
Without any further questions though?
- 16/11/2010 11:51:42 PM
1009 Views
If you see an avalanche coming, you hop on board (NOT a metaphor).
- 17/11/2010 12:12:31 AM
923 Views
Defense C: The Intro Flavor
- 16/11/2010 04:41:31 AM
1070 Views
Eh ...
- 16/11/2010 10:00:21 PM
907 Views
Re: Eh ...
- 17/11/2010 02:33:27 AM
965 Views
We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
- 16/11/2010 07:01:22 AM
1013 Views
Re: We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
- 16/11/2010 01:40:21 PM
917 Views
Yes, that was it.
- 16/11/2010 09:05:04 PM
935 Views
Re: Yes, that was it.
- 17/11/2010 02:55:58 AM
957 Views
Not at all.
- 17/11/2010 03:04:50 AM
945 Views
Well, that's a borderline lie
- 17/11/2010 04:29:47 AM
1019 Views
How do you figure?
- 17/11/2010 05:46:37 AM
916 Views
I'd say its pretty pertinent to my defense
- 17/11/2010 06:49:20 AM
917 Views
All right, fair enough.
- 17/11/2010 07:19:37 AM
1025 Views
Thanks for whakcing me before going to bed
- 17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
964 Views
- 17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
964 Views
By the way, I'd appreciate if no one had hammer till FT has a chance to reply and vice-versa
- 17/11/2010 07:46:18 AM
926 Views
I have evidence in favor of and yet against F-T's claim. Take it as you will.
- 17/11/2010 07:18:35 PM
1008 Views
Slight EBWOP
- 17/11/2010 07:20:58 PM
1009 Views
Re: Slight EBWOP
- 17/11/2010 07:24:34 PM
912 Views
Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense
- 17/11/2010 07:22:59 PM
983 Views
That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
- 17/11/2010 07:26:34 PM
920 Views
Re: That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
- 17/11/2010 08:01:20 PM
999 Views
Actually that sounds a good plan
- 17/11/2010 08:06:50 PM
917 Views
Glad to hear you agree with yourself
- 17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
1011 Views
- 17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
1011 Views
:/ Wanna mention this before I forget. Little niggling that's been bugging me.
- 17/11/2010 03:03:27 AM
937 Views
Ah yes, I noticed that as well
- 17/11/2010 04:08:15 AM
930 Views
I just caught that
- 17/11/2010 04:53:16 AM
1047 Views
No, I don't mean Cop.
- 17/11/2010 05:29:36 AM
958 Views
Re: No, I don't mean Cop.
- 17/11/2010 05:34:46 AM
965 Views
I trust him because of the way he's been acting.
- 17/11/2010 06:30:26 PM
1018 Views
Complete sidetrack.
- 17/11/2010 07:28:31 PM
1026 Views
Re: Complete sidetrack.
- 17/11/2010 07:33:51 PM
909 Views
I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 05:38:53 AM
870 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:04:08 AM
882 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:25:05 AM
979 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:50:04 AM
914 Views
In the interests of honesty, now would probably be a good time to mention ...
- 17/11/2010 09:22:14 PM
941 Views
What the balls?
- 17/11/2010 09:52:04 PM
958 Views
I still only see one way for this day to end
- 18/11/2010 02:02:03 PM
920 Views
Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
- 18/11/2010 03:18:50 PM
881 Views
Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
- 18/11/2010 05:16:28 PM
1089 Views
Re: Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
- 18/11/2010 06:00:06 PM
924 Views
Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
- 19/11/2010 03:48:52 PM
923 Views
I'd also like to point out that we know nothing about you
- 18/11/2010 03:37:08 PM
911 Views
i don't know much about comics but
- 18/11/2010 05:45:10 PM
955 Views
Re: i don't know much about comics but
- 18/11/2010 05:49:54 PM
861 Views
They're also Marvel characters
- 18/11/2010 06:30:11 PM
964 Views
LOL, duly noted
- 18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
981 Views
- 18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
981 Views
Beast is really surprisingly un-beastly.
- 18/11/2010 06:28:15 PM
979 Views
Sure
- 18/11/2010 06:42:01 PM
960 Views
Alright, to hell with this. Let's test F-T's sanity. Vote: Isaac *NM*
- 21/11/2010 08:29:53 PM
569 Views
Ah, the frustration vote, normally my best friend
- 21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
927 Views
- 21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
927 Views
OK, here's a question for beet:
- 21/11/2010 10:37:08 PM
938 Views
You're not suggesting we lynch F-T instead of Isaac, are you?
- 21/11/2010 11:17:19 PM
931 Views
But we do get information
- 22/11/2010 12:17:20 AM
949 Views
<-- Btw, first time I got the hammer vote. My life is now complete. *NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:20:53 AM
569 Views
Well, congrats
*NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
582 Views
*NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
582 Views
Since this is a first for both of us...
- 22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
933 Views
- 22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
933 Views
When someone dies, you find out their role. "Psycho Cop" is a distinct role.
- 21/11/2010 11:22:50 PM
941 Views
Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
- 22/11/2010 12:00:31 AM
902 Views
Re: Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
- 22/11/2010 12:21:01 AM
1007 Views
Isaac has been lynched!
- 22/11/2010 03:10:01 AM
846 Views
I can't help but feel a silver bullet would have been appropriate
- 22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
839 Views
- 22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
839 Views
I find that astounding, considering the level of suspicion generally laid upon you *NM*
- 22/11/2010 04:16:04 AM
617 Views
I might just mount your head on my wall
.
- 22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
1042 Views
.
- 22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
1042 Views
I consider myself an integral part in this group.
- 22/11/2010 05:27:12 AM
1035 Views



