Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
ranagrande Send a noteboard - 19/11/2010 03:48:52 PM
We need to lynch Isaac. It's really the only logical choice. I know some of you want to respect his request for more time, but really, what can he possibly say?
A lot
Well say it already then.
A claimed Cop who is unchallenged in that claim also claims to have found him guilty. That's as solid a reason to lynch as we could possibly ask for. As an added bonus, thanks to our unchallenged claimed Tracker, we know that Isaac was indeed targeted by our unchallenged claimed Cop.
We don't "know" that. Kronin's claim is backed up by his HC, but were he scum that would mean no more than he saw the option for a RC of that type. Considering its basically established beyond reasonable doubt that at least one scummer voted for me, if you are accepting both Kronin and Ft as town, that leaves only 4 votes - yours, Amys, Bergioyn, and ? I'd have second thoughts about eliminating who the scummer vote(s) could be from.
Don't worry. I still suspect everyone to varying degrees. I am less suspicious of Kronin and F-T now than I am of most people, simply because Cop and Tracker are dangerous claims to make if untrue and no one has called them out on it.
I admit that the numbers are interesting, but I do see plenty of ways that it could have happened.
I find it extremely odd that Isaac was brought to the very brink -- one punctuation mark away from being lynched -- when all we had to go on was the perception of some of his behavior being anti-town, but after F-T dropped his bombshell the case seems to have actually lost momentum. It makes no sense.
Pretty simple reason, I have third-party verifiable proof of my claim of SPLOG-weirdness predating FT's claim and even his HC, doesn't prove the claim but it removes the option of it being a last desperate gamble. We also have 4 investigatory claims right now, so the SPLOG is reasonably viewed as about as likely to be accurate as random guessing would be. I also find it a bit weird that you now say all we had to go was a perception of anti-town behavior yet you voted for me, unvoted, then voted again, all before the cop revelation.
There's nothing weird about that at all. In fact, that's basically been my MO for lynching since the first game I played here. As I said the first time, I basically voted for you because your attempt to get a no-lynch struck me as being anti-town. If we have eleven players in the game, and exactly one of them is acting scummy, who does it make the most sense to lynch? I've voted off of far less before.
Also, you keep insisting that four investigative roles is too many and using that as proof that the SPLOG must be broken. In my game, the town had six investigators. Going back to your "proof" about the SPLOG though, why would you have any such information while your masons did not? Wouldn't the Thing be the least likely member of the Fantastic Four to know the details of Reed's experiments?
By all appearances, Isaac is probably scum. If he does still turn out to be innocent after all this, we'd probably have to kill F-T tomorrow, but I think that's very unlikely. Either way, I've seen enough to have some ideas of who could be Skrull allies anyway.
You propose killing FT in spite of the fact that no one has counter-claimed having the SPLOG, and Kronin says he tracked him to me? Its pretty clear FT has the thing, he can't be scum, why would we lynch him if I'm innocent?
Why is it so clear that he can't be scum if has the SPLOG? What was there to prevent a Skrull from grabbing it instead of She-Hulk? If the Cop role were to be compromised, I think that would be the way to do it; it would be a nice comic bookish twist that would give near def-town status to a scummer. I don't really believe that at all, but it's a possibility.
I suspect it's all a moot point now anyway, because I'm convinced now that you are indeed scum.
So, nothing personal, Isaac, but this is how it needs to begin. Your death message will dictate the course of this game.
Or yours
Vote: Ranagrande
Nice, an OMGUS vote. This, incidentally, is why I am now completely convinced of your guilt. Even discounting our differing opinions about no-lynches and the like, you are the one who came up positive and you are the one whose death will certify the sanity of our cop. My death would accomplish nothing.
And you're too good and too logical of a player not to realize that. I can understand the element of self-preservation and wanting to stay in the game, but if you were a townie you would have to at least recognize the value in lynching you today.
We know that even if I'm scum at least one scummer voted for me, even if they only have 3 and with 4 investigatory roles, fist's up-gunned role and virtually everyone else apparently roled 3 seems unlikely. BEst odds are at least two scummers voted for me and it's not logically consistent that FT or Kronin would be them.
That just leaves you, Amys, Bergioyn, and ?
But ? could have hit me right at the end, he'd have attracted no more suspicion by correcting his vote then by simply casting it. We can't say anything about Amys, she voted and has disappeared beyond lurking, not even opening coin bid NBs, then there's you and Bergioyn.
We've already covered how unlikely bussing should have been under the circumstances and how it's necessary under essentially any model for at least one scummer to have voted for me, that makes me very unlikely to be a scummer, but its also still unlikely that only one scummer voted for me, that 'only one' is based off multiple improbable assumptions needing to be true for each case. The data favors no less than 2 scummers voting for me, an even more absurd bussing case, and it means two of those 4 votes on me besides FT and Kronin are scum.
You're the most probable candidate to be one. You voted on very slim evidence like the others, but Amys and ? are pretty new, don't really have a handle on what is lynch-worthy evidence. Whereas Bergioyn hesitated to vote initially, saying he was suspicious of me and FT, that he wanted to hear more details, then finally voted and said he'd unvote when my mason buds confirmed, you voted after him, taking me to L-1 and didn't unvote even when DK warned you so, nor were you likely not to have realized a bandwagon vote was underway.
That just leaves you, Amys, Bergioyn, and ?
But ? could have hit me right at the end, he'd have attracted no more suspicion by correcting his vote then by simply casting it. We can't say anything about Amys, she voted and has disappeared beyond lurking, not even opening coin bid NBs, then there's you and Bergioyn.
We've already covered how unlikely bussing should have been under the circumstances and how it's necessary under essentially any model for at least one scummer to have voted for me, that makes me very unlikely to be a scummer, but its also still unlikely that only one scummer voted for me, that 'only one' is based off multiple improbable assumptions needing to be true for each case. The data favors no less than 2 scummers voting for me, an even more absurd bussing case, and it means two of those 4 votes on me besides FT and Kronin are scum.
You're the most probable candidate to be one. You voted on very slim evidence like the others, but Amys and ? are pretty new, don't really have a handle on what is lynch-worthy evidence. Whereas Bergioyn hesitated to vote initially, saying he was suspicious of me and FT, that he wanted to hear more details, then finally voted and said he'd unvote when my mason buds confirmed, you voted after him, taking me to L-1 and didn't unvote even when DK warned you so, nor were you likely not to have realized a bandwagon vote was underway.
Evidence for lynches isn't about quality or quantity, it's about relativity. If I have slim evidence against you and no evidence against anyone else, you're most likely going to get my vote.
My vote took you to L-2, not L-1. Had I known ? was going to vote less than two minutes after me, I might have considered holding back. I did Unvote the next time I logged in, as per your request so you could offer your defense.
Throughout you've seemed primarily interested in just getting a lynch, yet while others who did vote have potential clear reasons, you really do not:
Right, so people without specific role-related information shouldn't be trying to catch scum?
FT - copped me, thought I was suspicious and clearly after getting the result took the more sinister interpretation of all my actions
Kronin - Tracked FT, knew he'd done something to me and knew he'd HC'd me guilty, must have seriously considered FT was the cop, his first reaction to the claim was genuine in my opinion, then he thought about how improbable three fully working investigators (now 4) was and wanted time, unvoted
? - I pushed on him pretty hard early today as a possible scummer, yet with every reasonable chance as townie or scummer busser to have finished off the lynch by simply resending with a colon, he never has, even though he posted before anyone else unvoted. Had he been scum and just wanted me dead, regardless of alignment, from bussing or a desire to kill a townie, he had it right there without any realistic chance of repercussion beyond what he'd already have gotten by voting in the first place. He's also fairly new, and not steeped in a lot of our tactics, as reveale dby his responses during my grilling of him, I don't think he'd bee too likely to 'bus' me. He might be scum and me townie, but he's an even worse case for bussing than others, and if scum, too easy to just repeat the vote.
Kronin - Tracked FT, knew he'd done something to me and knew he'd HC'd me guilty, must have seriously considered FT was the cop, his first reaction to the claim was genuine in my opinion, then he thought about how improbable three fully working investigators (now 4) was and wanted time, unvoted
? - I pushed on him pretty hard early today as a possible scummer, yet with every reasonable chance as townie or scummer busser to have finished off the lynch by simply resending with a colon, he never has, even though he posted before anyone else unvoted. Had he been scum and just wanted me dead, regardless of alignment, from bussing or a desire to kill a townie, he had it right there without any realistic chance of repercussion beyond what he'd already have gotten by voting in the first place. He's also fairly new, and not steeped in a lot of our tactics, as reveale dby his responses during my grilling of him, I don't think he'd bee too likely to 'bus' me. He might be scum and me townie, but he's an even worse case for bussing than others, and if scum, too easy to just repeat the vote.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if you and ? were Skrull together. You were each masons in different groups. He joined you in voting for a no-lynch. You might say you "pushed on him pretty hard" but your case was actually pretty weak and never could have gone anywhere. It easily could have been designed to create separation between the two of you.
Then there was his not-quite-vote... His post afterwards seemed to be one of indignation, but as you say, he never corrected it to make his vote count, although he could have easily done so. As ridiculous as it sounds, I could almost believe that you worked out the colon thing ahead of time.
Amys - Just gone right now, my nominal hammer vote, I'd like to hear from her but if she doesn't open up my Coin Game Bid pretty soon we'll have to assume she's gone, who vote off, etc. She's new too, not likely to rapid bus someone if she saw it, but that new status excuses jumping on a bandwagon without realizing the repercussions, though she's pretty high on my list too
Bergioyn - He unvoted, has voted since, was very dubious about the evidence and voted after FT pushed on him, offering himself as Day 3 lynch if I died town.
So, with at least one scummer in the vote mix for me even if I were scum, you had the least reason as town to vote, and you've now expressed an intent to kill FT if I come up town even though every shred of proof indicates he's town.
Bergioyn - He unvoted, has voted since, was very dubious about the evidence and voted after FT pushed on him, offering himself as Day 3 lynch if I died town.
So, with at least one scummer in the vote mix for me even if I were scum, you had the least reason as town to vote, and you've now expressed an intent to kill FT if I come up town even though every shred of proof indicates he's town.
I really don't think that will be an issue anyway.
Your also trying to end the day early when we should be trying to make it so our investigators can narrow down who to target tonight from the list of 5 voters besides FT, makes no sense.
Reading their posts, our investigators already know who they're targeting. There may very well be scum that voted for you even if you are Skrull, but there are probably more who didn't.
RAFO Mafia 19: Superlative Crisis! ISSUE TWO: BLACK MAGIC- WHOA, MAN!
03/11/2010 04:59:59 AM
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I see two avenues to discuss here
03/11/2010 11:41:14 AM
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I was thinking about number 1.
03/11/2010 10:00:57 PM
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Regarding 2, and let me suggets a 3
04/11/2010 02:30:41 AM
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I, personally, agree with Isaac so here goes.
04/11/2010 11:33:07 PM
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O.......K..........
05/11/2010 11:43:14 PM
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Did Fist use his power last Night?
06/11/2010 03:41:05 AM
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It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 04:53:19 AM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 05:30:00 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 08:18:16 AM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 03:38:37 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 06:42:10 PM
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Huh, well Fox straight up told us his Mason group was a 3rd Fraction on Night 1
11/11/2010 12:55:50 AM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 06:16:29 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 07:16:20 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 09:29:12 PM
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I am about 95% sure that WF targeted me last Night.
11/11/2010 01:04:34 AM
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Interesting.
11/11/2010 02:25:07 AM
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It's certainly possible.
11/11/2010 02:39:00 AM
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Now I'm curious
11/11/2010 03:33:46 AM
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Presumably because I'm not trying to get her lynched.
11/11/2010 03:53:54 AM
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Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
04/11/2010 05:41:04 AM
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Re: Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
04/11/2010 04:18:17 PM
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a scummer got caught on day one in the tower game
04/11/2010 06:42:15 PM
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also there was that time someone said they saw a black light instead of white
04/11/2010 07:52:41 PM
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That was Hobo in DK's crossover game. *NM*
04/11/2010 08:16:07 PM
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You know we could just forget about that. I wouldn't complain. *NM*
05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
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Hypocop? *NM*
03/11/2010 03:20:17 PM
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So help me I will spoil the entirety of ToM, people! (not just yet, though)
10/11/2010 02:51:46 AM
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I'm pretty sure if you do, you'll be lynched. *NM*
10/11/2010 09:19:43 PM
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Vote: No Lynch
13/11/2010 12:24:43 AM
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I am very much opposed to this idea
13/11/2010 02:04:27 PM
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Then offer an alternative
13/11/2010 11:10:42 PM
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Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
14/11/2010 04:03:35 AM
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Re: Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
14/11/2010 04:21:12 AM
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I had no RBIRL because my computer died.
14/11/2010 06:52:56 AM
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Ah, I see you did unvote. Very well. I still got my eye on you. *NM*
14/11/2010 06:55:30 AM
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LOL - I guess this is also my informal defense
14/11/2010 08:52:56 AM
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Saying it's not out-of-character to be scummy doesn't make you any less scummy.
14/11/2010 04:33:15 PM
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Watch the difference between what he says and what he is accused of.
14/11/2010 07:08:08 PM
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After this whole argument I've had with FT...
13/11/2010 11:42:32 PM
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People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
14/11/2010 03:43:14 AM
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Re: People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
14/11/2010 02:23:04 PM
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Vote: Isaac
13/11/2010 11:58:56 PM
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Re: Vote: Isaac
14/11/2010 03:02:15 AM
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Re: Vote: Isaac
14/11/2010 04:02:30 AM
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What was scummy?
14/11/2010 04:10:12 AM
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Re: What was scummy?
14/11/2010 05:41:44 AM
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Extrmely thin
14/11/2010 06:05:32 AM
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Actually...
14/11/2010 06:55:02 AM
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Re: Actually...
14/11/2010 07:44:33 AM
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Did you guys just blitz me?
14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
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Your not hammered yet are you?
14/11/2010 11:46:29 PM
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I think I might be, can never be sure what votes are worth in a heavy role game
14/11/2010 11:50:51 PM
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I'm potentially alive on a technicality
15/11/2010 12:02:36 AM
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Why don't you go ahead and claim then?
15/11/2010 12:11:03 AM
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Sure
15/11/2010 12:34:34 AM
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Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
15/11/2010 02:13:23 AM
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I think so.
15/11/2010 01:25:46 AM
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Also, I must confess...
15/11/2010 01:32:44 AM
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Re: Also, I must confess...
15/11/2010 01:58:26 AM
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Yes, I would expect so.
15/11/2010 02:22:06 AM
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Re: Yes, I would expect so.
15/11/2010 02:35:49 AM
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I'm unvoting only if the defence is really foolproof, since now no-one can hammer without instantly
15/11/2010 07:18:05 AM
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EBWOP - The "only" in the title is rebundant, it was part of different title I abandoned. *NM*
15/11/2010 07:19:46 AM
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I guess the first title stands afterall I won't automatically unvote just because none should hammer
15/11/2010 08:19:00 AM
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I'll try to help Isaac out a bit here.
15/11/2010 01:11:11 PM
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Thanks, and a question too
15/11/2010 01:30:17 PM
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Well, I'll unvote if the third mason comes forward too. *NM*
15/11/2010 03:30:36 PM
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Jeez, when it rains, it pours
15/11/2010 10:34:54 PM
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OK Isaac
15/11/2010 11:14:45 PM
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My Defense Posts
16/11/2010 04:16:41 AM
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Defense A: The Fantastic Four
16/11/2010 04:31:11 AM
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Defense B: The Numbers Game
16/11/2010 04:36:59 AM
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"What motive would a scummer have"?
16/11/2010 05:56:04 PM
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Without any further questions though?
16/11/2010 11:51:42 PM
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If you see an avalanche coming, you hop on board (NOT a metaphor).
17/11/2010 12:12:31 AM
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Defense C: The Intro Flavor
16/11/2010 04:41:31 AM
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Eh ...
16/11/2010 10:00:21 PM
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Re: Eh ...
17/11/2010 02:33:27 AM
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We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
16/11/2010 07:01:22 AM
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Re: We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
16/11/2010 01:40:21 PM
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Yes, that was it.
16/11/2010 09:05:04 PM
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Re: Yes, that was it.
17/11/2010 02:55:58 AM
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Not at all.
17/11/2010 03:04:50 AM
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Well, that's a borderline lie
17/11/2010 04:29:47 AM
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How do you figure?
17/11/2010 05:46:37 AM
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I'd say its pretty pertinent to my defense
17/11/2010 06:49:20 AM
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All right, fair enough.
17/11/2010 07:19:37 AM
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Thanks for whakcing me before going to bed
17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
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By the way, I'd appreciate if no one had hammer till FT has a chance to reply and vice-versa
17/11/2010 07:46:18 AM
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I have evidence in favor of and yet against F-T's claim. Take it as you will.
17/11/2010 07:18:35 PM
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Slight EBWOP
17/11/2010 07:20:58 PM
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Re: Slight EBWOP
17/11/2010 07:24:34 PM
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Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense
17/11/2010 07:22:59 PM
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That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
17/11/2010 07:26:34 PM
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Re: That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
17/11/2010 08:01:20 PM
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Actually that sounds a good plan
17/11/2010 08:06:50 PM
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Glad to hear you agree with yourself
17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
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:/ Wanna mention this before I forget. Little niggling that's been bugging me.
17/11/2010 03:03:27 AM
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Ah yes, I noticed that as well
17/11/2010 04:08:15 AM
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I just caught that
17/11/2010 04:53:16 AM
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No, I don't mean Cop.
17/11/2010 05:29:36 AM
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Re: No, I don't mean Cop.
17/11/2010 05:34:46 AM
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I trust him because of the way he's been acting.
17/11/2010 06:30:26 PM
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Complete sidetrack.
17/11/2010 07:28:31 PM
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Re: Complete sidetrack.
17/11/2010 07:33:51 PM
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I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 05:38:53 AM
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Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:04:08 AM
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Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:25:05 AM
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Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:50:04 AM
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In the interests of honesty, now would probably be a good time to mention ...
17/11/2010 09:22:14 PM
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What the balls?
17/11/2010 09:52:04 PM
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I still only see one way for this day to end
18/11/2010 02:02:03 PM
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Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
18/11/2010 03:18:50 PM
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Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
18/11/2010 05:16:28 PM
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Re: Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
18/11/2010 06:00:06 PM
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Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
19/11/2010 03:48:52 PM
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I'd also like to point out that we know nothing about you
18/11/2010 03:37:08 PM
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i don't know much about comics but
18/11/2010 05:45:10 PM
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Re: i don't know much about comics but
18/11/2010 05:49:54 PM
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They're also Marvel characters
18/11/2010 06:30:11 PM
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LOL, duly noted
18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
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Beast is really surprisingly un-beastly.
18/11/2010 06:28:15 PM
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Sure
18/11/2010 06:42:01 PM
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Alright, to hell with this. Let's test F-T's sanity. Vote: Isaac *NM*
21/11/2010 08:29:53 PM
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Ah, the frustration vote, normally my best friend
21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
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OK, here's a question for beet:
21/11/2010 10:37:08 PM
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You're not suggesting we lynch F-T instead of Isaac, are you?
21/11/2010 11:17:19 PM
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But we do get information
22/11/2010 12:17:20 AM
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<-- Btw, first time I got the hammer vote. My life is now complete. *NM*
22/11/2010 12:20:53 AM
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Well, congrats *NM*
22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
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Since this is a first for both of us...
22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
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When someone dies, you find out their role. "Psycho Cop" is a distinct role.
21/11/2010 11:22:50 PM
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Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
22/11/2010 12:00:31 AM
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Re: Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
22/11/2010 12:21:01 AM
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Isaac has been lynched!
22/11/2010 03:10:01 AM
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I can't help but feel a silver bullet would have been appropriate
22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
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I find that astounding, considering the level of suspicion generally laid upon you *NM*
22/11/2010 04:16:04 AM
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I might just mount your head on my wall .
22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
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I consider myself an integral part in this group.
22/11/2010 05:27:12 AM
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