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Here are some key flaws, unfortunately... Shannow Send a noteboard - 02/05/2014 07:56:53 PM

"From Kerene, it's a sharp drop to the next five. Five once this child and the Sanche girl reach their potential. No one has come to the Tower in a thousand years who could match me. No one to match Meilyn or Kerene in almost six hundred. A thousand years ago, there would have been fifty sisters or more who stood higher than this child. In another hundred years, though, she'll stand in the first rank"

Don't you see what this means?

This quote is proving exactly my point. The farther you go back in time, the more stronger channelers there are. Over time, strength in the Power is being eradicated from the gene pool.

The average strength today is lower than the average 1000 years ago, which was lower than the average 2000 years ago, which was lower than the average 3000 years ago.

The average of today's Bell Curve is lower than the one 3000 years ago. That's why Forsaken level channelers are off today's scale.

The Bell Curve distribution existed 3000 years ago. Just like it exists today. But these are two different Bell curves, because we are talking about two different POPULATIONS.

A curve for average body weight today would look vastly different to a curve for average body weight 3000 years ago, in the real world. Because we are talking about 2 different populations. So you cannot say that the average woman today weighs the same as the average woman 3000 years ago.

In the same way, Lanfear was indeed twice as strong as the average woman in the Age of Legends. But that average was different from the Third Age average, and therefore Lanfear is far more than twice the strength of today's average woman.

Furthermore, there is not a single mechanism that can explain why the Tower today would be under-representative of channelers of above average strength. In fact, they should be OVER-representative of channelers above average strength, because they have a selection bias towards stronger channelers. RJ said so himself.

So even if they discover only 1 channeler in 5, that would be a 20% sample of the total channeling population. But that 20% sample would have a selection bias towards above average channelers, because the 37.5% weakest channelers are automatically excluded from the sample. Hence, the average Aes Sedai would be STRONGER than the average Third Age female channeler.

That is an undeniable statistical fact.

So we know for a fact then that the average Aes Sedai is stronger than the average Third Age female. So if the average Aes Sedai is stronger than the average female, then the STRONGEST Aes Sedai (Elaida) would be vastly stronger than the average female.

Siuan today is significantly below half her former strength, yet she is still stronger than Daigian. So Daigian is significantly below half of Elaida's strength.

Yet the average strength female does not lie far above Daigian's level. We know this, because RJ stated that only 12.5% of channelers lie between Daigian and the average. Therefore, if the average strength woman is so close to Daigian, and the average woman is exactly half as strong as the strongest woman, then the undeniable statistical fact is that the strongest possible woman would lie pretty much at Elaida's level.


This clearly proves that the Third Age Bell Curve CANNOT include the+ level channelers.


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One Power strength: New information from RJ's notes - 01/05/2014 11:39:32 PM 4855 Views
interesting. i wonder what else they'll dig up - 01/05/2014 11:46:19 PM 2131 Views
College of Charleston library - 02/05/2014 12:21:01 AM 2226 Views
Still... really cool, thanks! *NM* - 03/05/2014 06:35:05 PM 1167 Views
Mesaana - 02/05/2014 12:26:19 AM 2214 Views
Re: Mesaana - 02/05/2014 12:37:52 AM 2304 Views
Danelle - 02/05/2014 12:59:51 AM 2131 Views
Interesting... - 02/05/2014 05:13:44 PM 2155 Views
Re: Mesaana - 26/05/2015 10:21:33 PM 1774 Views
Bringing it all together... - 02/05/2014 10:34:12 AM 2188 Views
Can't accept that, sorry... - 02/05/2014 03:17:05 PM 2263 Views
How that CAN be interpreted however, is... - 02/05/2014 03:38:38 PM 1897 Views
Sorry, no... - 02/05/2014 06:00:56 PM 1923 Views
Here are some key flaws, unfortunately... - 02/05/2014 07:56:53 PM 1813 Views
Sorry, you're mistaking the Tower for the world... - 02/05/2014 09:50:23 PM 1826 Views
Re: Sorry, you're mistaking the Tower for the world... - 02/05/2014 09:59:45 PM 1818 Views
Not totally accurate - 17/05/2015 11:15:30 PM 1746 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 05/06/2015 03:23:08 PM 1948 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 05/06/2015 08:22:13 PM 1742 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 05/06/2015 09:16:51 PM 2108 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 06/06/2015 03:48:34 PM 1725 Views
Re: How that CAN be interpreted however, is... - 02/05/2014 09:39:06 PM 2017 Views
Thanks DomA. The problem is simple.. - 02/05/2014 09:57:37 PM 1894 Views
Ahh, the Rand with Egwene and Elayne scene... - 02/05/2014 10:19:05 PM 2260 Views
Re: Thanks DomA. The problem is simple.. - 02/05/2014 10:45:12 PM 1938 Views
About that... - 02/05/2014 10:48:18 PM 1806 Views
Re: About that... - 02/05/2014 11:12:01 PM 1951 Views
Re: About that... - 17/05/2015 03:07:22 AM 1671 Views
Re: Thanks DomA. The problem is simple.. - 05/06/2015 03:16:50 PM 1971 Views
Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 02/05/2014 10:24:02 PM 1812 Views
Re: Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 02/05/2014 11:09:16 PM 1759 Views
Re: Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 02/05/2014 11:36:55 PM 1895 Views
More on Aiel learners - 03/05/2014 12:46:19 AM 1864 Views
Interesting. - 03/05/2014 02:32:23 AM 1794 Views
Re: Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 03/05/2014 01:02:23 AM 1907 Views
Oh... - 03/05/2014 02:35:08 AM 1832 Views
Re: Oh... - 03/05/2014 04:29:34 AM 2377 Views
Can you clarify something here Dom/Terez? - 07/05/2014 01:31:54 AM 1954 Views
Re: Can you clarify something here Dom/Terez? - 07/05/2014 02:59:42 AM 2060 Views
Thanks Dom, I'm genuinely puzzled, though... - 07/05/2014 09:04:08 AM 1996 Views
Some things to consider... - 07/05/2014 11:22:46 PM 1812 Views
Re: Some things to consider... - 17/05/2015 03:32:22 AM 1681 Views
Vegeta! What does the scouter say about his power level? - 02/05/2014 04:38:59 PM 1801 Views
mmm, Vegeta *NM* - 03/05/2014 08:32:36 AM 1161 Views
Sorilea and comments on the general structure of the notes - 02/05/2014 09:20:26 PM 2163 Views
Is there any reference whatsoever about strength multiples? - 02/05/2014 09:34:50 PM 1980 Views
I will let you know if I see something like that... - 02/05/2014 10:20:46 PM 1799 Views
Thanks. Because it will solve the entire riddle - 03/05/2014 11:04:31 PM 1951 Views
Re: Thanks. Because it will solve the entire riddle - 04/05/2014 06:16:52 AM 1965 Views
Interesting... - 04/05/2014 08:14:19 AM 1994 Views
Re: Interesting... - 05/05/2014 04:08:41 PM 1948 Views
LOL! - 02/05/2014 09:46:11 PM 2028 Views
More info on Sorilea - 02/05/2014 10:04:50 PM 2096 Views
This is great! - 02/05/2014 10:23:31 PM 2081 Views
In the original he might have kissed her. - 03/05/2014 12:49:53 AM 1862 Views
Having read some of his other books with sex, I've always been curious about this. - 05/05/2014 02:53:00 PM 2126 Views
Easy answer - 10/05/2014 02:49:53 PM 1847 Views
Can't argue with that! - 18/05/2014 12:31:01 AM 2009 Views
Therava/Galina - 10/05/2014 02:58:09 PM 2489 Views
Came across one of the oldest strength lists I'd seen... - 02/05/2014 10:46:29 PM 1903 Views
#10 seems weird. An Aes Sedai who never reached her full potential? - 03/05/2014 06:43:41 PM 2042 Views
Not weird. There is a good reason. - 03/05/2014 09:30:40 PM 2009 Views
One question... - 03/05/2014 09:44:35 PM 1971 Views
yes to both *NM* - 03/05/2014 10:49:29 PM 1212 Views
Suian? - 04/05/2014 04:50:32 PM 1928 Views
Does not meet the criteria I gave. *NM* - 10/05/2014 05:23:27 AM 1109 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 11/05/2014 05:49:31 AM 1853 Views
Not someone who was severed, burned out, or anything like that. *NM* - 11/05/2014 01:27:28 PM 1119 Views
Did she join the Aes Sedai especially early or late in life? - 11/05/2014 01:47:27 PM 1862 Views
no... - 11/05/2014 04:27:07 PM 1737 Views
Wild guess... - 11/05/2014 06:51:27 PM 1785 Views
One of Terez's criteria - 11/05/2014 09:24:57 PM 1735 Views
Hmmm... - 12/05/2014 08:51:33 AM 1763 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 13/05/2014 06:14:12 PM 1966 Views
Even I don't know what Dom is talking about. *NM* - 13/05/2014 06:24:23 PM 1106 Views
Does it have anything to do with the Sharans? - 13/05/2014 10:35:45 PM 1797 Views
no - 14/05/2014 07:52:27 AM 1832 Views
Wasn't there a Sister who was a Queen or sister to a King or something like that... - 13/05/2014 09:26:02 PM 1871 Views
Kiruna... - 13/05/2014 10:34:32 PM 1817 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 13/05/2014 10:38:05 PM 1682 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 14/05/2014 04:09:42 AM 1775 Views
Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 14/05/2014 04:37:20 AM 1857 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 14/05/2014 07:55:20 AM 1813 Views
- 14/05/2014 08:14:05 AM 1741 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 15/05/2014 03:59:02 AM 1907 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 16/05/2014 04:06:02 PM 1756 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 17/05/2014 03:01:25 AM 1867 Views
Perhaps Romanda? - 05/06/2015 04:22:31 PM 1895 Views
Re: Perhaps Romanda? - 05/06/2015 08:39:31 PM 1560 Views
Re: Wild guess... - 12/05/2014 05:33:53 AM 1892 Views
Alternatively, someone who went to live in Far Madding... - 12/05/2014 12:08:07 PM 1847 Views
That was one of my guesses... - 12/05/2014 04:57:56 PM 1613 Views
Redirect to my initial "Not weird" post. *NM* - 12/05/2014 06:59:02 PM 1116 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 20/05/2014 02:23:13 AM 1765 Views
Lots of no *NM* - 20/05/2014 02:30:25 AM 1143 Views
You're killing me. - 20/05/2014 02:55:21 AM 1807 Views
I won't just tell you :p But... - 20/05/2014 10:31:27 AM 1824 Views
Wild speculation - 20/05/2014 01:39:52 PM 1756 Views
Could it be Verin who always used her angreal? - 20/05/2014 02:07:30 PM 1742 Views
Hmmm - 20/05/2014 03:37:57 PM 1764 Views
Well, I'm not saying she did it to appear weaker... - 20/05/2014 03:48:10 PM 1741 Views
The buffer - 20/05/2014 04:10:58 PM 1797 Views
I doubt using an angreal means you don't progress in natural strength - 20/05/2014 06:02:00 PM 1928 Views
Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 20/05/2014 11:53:11 PM 1822 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 21/05/2014 01:55:15 AM 1749 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 22/05/2014 02:33:30 AM 1841 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 22/05/2014 05:04:00 AM 1882 Views
So... - 22/05/2014 05:12:48 AM 1738 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 22/05/2014 11:55:38 AM 1750 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 24/05/2014 02:07:01 AM 1759 Views
I didn't say that - 24/05/2014 11:24:30 PM 1800 Views
Re: I didn't say that - 25/05/2014 02:32:46 PM 1845 Views
did she deliberately keep her growth slow? A small theory too - 17/05/2015 11:54:28 PM 1718 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 05:49:42 PM 1971 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 06:05:28 PM 1657 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 06:23:28 PM 1987 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 08:37:20 PM 1622 Views
I think this will be in the Encyclopedia, so... - 10/06/2015 03:06:42 PM 1753 Views
you are such a tease *NM* - 10/06/2015 09:05:10 PM 934 Views
Why doesn't someone... - 24/05/2014 11:25:51 PM 1963 Views
Favourite part about this post... - 12/05/2014 07:12:51 AM 1999 Views
With regard to #10- does it involve the Oath Rod, in some way? - 15/05/2014 02:53:45 PM 1769 Views
no *NM* - 15/05/2014 07:16:16 PM 1089 Views
Oh, I know! It's the Sea Folk Aes Sedai! - 17/05/2014 01:32:04 PM 1863 Views
Re: Oh, I know! It's the Sea Folk Aes Sedai! - 17/05/2014 08:45:59 PM 1901 Views
An Aes Sedai who was sent away from the Tower? - 17/05/2014 10:01:44 PM 1912 Views
Again, no reason to think this Aes Sedai did not channel often. *NM* - 18/05/2014 04:32:06 AM 1138 Views
Did the Aes Sedai live in relative seclusion, did she have a Warder, and did that Warder die? *NM* - 20/05/2014 06:03:04 PM 1264 Views
Too specific - 20/05/2014 11:51:25 PM 1818 Views
Re: Too specific - 21/05/2014 05:32:32 AM 1754 Views
You think THAT isn't specific? *NM* - 22/05/2014 02:41:53 AM 1126 Views
It's a fine mess that no one can work out - 09/06/2014 09:20:56 AM 2017 Views
Re: It's a fine mess that no one can work out - 04/06/2015 08:48:20 PM 2041 Views

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