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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM

Yes, true, but I think if you take a subset from a bell curve, that subset will also have the characteristics of a bell curve.

Not if the subset is not a random sampling. And the Tower is anything but a random sample. IT has several criteria of exclusion, like removing all women below a particular strength range, not having any women who do not come asking to be made AS, etc. As a result, the distribution will be skewed.
Further, if a subset has a distribution that violates the distribution of the superset, yoy have to assume an error in sampling.

See what I just said about subsets. If that is wrong, then you are right.

That is indeed wrong.

Why not? The median is just the person in the middle, not necessarily the middle of the range. For example, in the following set of numbers:

5, 20, 500, 1000, 5,000

500 is the median. True, in a bell curve, mean=median=mode, so you could have a distribution like this:

10, 20, 30, 40, 40, 60, 80

mean = median = mode = 40

Note that the middle of the range between 10 and 80 is 45.

You're assuming a discontinuous range then. That has absolutely no basis in fact. There is not one shred of proof that certain strengths between the lowest and highest strengths cannot exist, which is what you're implying by having 5 and 20 in your list, but not 10, 15, etc.

See above.

See above! :P

Not necessarily.

Yes necessarily. the mistake you're making is that you think the bell curve distribution is a hypothesis based on random statistical sampling of all channelers. In that case, it is indeed possible that you'll have no person occupying certain strength scales, which will shift the mean.
In this case however, RJ has declared that all his imaginary characters follow this law. And has given absolutely no indication that there are levels which no human can occupy between the minima and the maxima of the range.

I assumed Moiraine and old Siuan were equals, then Siuan was half her old strength (4K and 2K). It seemed a reasonable place to put them within the distribution, since Moiraine is one of the strongest AS. I don't know if 3K is the correct place to put an average AS, but it can make sense in a bell curve (i.e., the average channeler doesn't have to be in the middle of the range).

No it cannot. Not in this bell curve. For that, you'll have to prove that no human has strengths like 12000, 11,000, etc. Which is not true at all.

The distribution is based off the 68-95-99.7 rule (wiki it). In brief, 68% of the population of interest is within plus or minus one SD of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within 3.

I'm quite aware of this, thank you. Why this is being pointed out is my (as yet unanswered) question.

Well yes, but so has RJ. OK, Morgase and a bunch of no-name novices/wilders we've never met, then.

No he has not! There are women thrown out of the Tower because they're too weak. There are women who become Accepted, but not AS. All these women are rarer than women who can become AS, but the Tower doesn't know because they don't actively hunt out all channelers.

Sorry, I skimmed most of this thread, but I saw that people were using shielding as a way to measure strengh. For example, 3 people shielding Semi vs. 2 for egwene, etc. If that is not good for measuring strength (and I don't think it is the best way, really), then forget that point.

The shield theory works okay within the same gender. But we know men can shield men more easily than men can shield women and vice versa. So I think using this to compare male and female strengths is ridiculous.
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8559 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1709 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1675 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1484 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1590 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1162 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1580 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1467 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1163 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1206 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 777 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1281 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1350 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1316 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1235 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1107 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1168 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1318 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1063 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1007 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1003 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1067 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1355 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1280 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1194 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1121 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1120 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 745 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1225 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1242 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1083 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1122 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1069 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1245 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1328 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1213 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1144 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1148 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1201 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1134 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1090 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1041 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1135 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1293 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1178 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 661 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1233 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1198 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1432 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1275 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1156 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 617 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1234 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1421 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1173 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1112 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1144 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1147 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1077 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1042 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 673 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 639 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1198 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1002 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 938 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1036 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1064 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1085 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1064 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 969 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 997 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 983 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1024 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1027 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1053 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1536 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1031 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 926 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 982 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1026 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 980 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 922 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 991 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1042 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 963 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1078 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1091 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1152 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1099 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1072 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 989 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1013 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 570 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 973 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1019 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 927 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1109 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1020 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1005 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 956 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1025 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 998 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1054 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 994 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 995 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 958 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1017 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1068 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1060 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1046 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1019 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1056 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1029 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1036 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1046 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1030 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1054 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1111 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1259 Views

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