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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM

Yes, true, but I think if you take a subset from a bell curve, that subset will also have the characteristics of a bell curve.

Not if the subset is not a random sampling. And the Tower is anything but a random sample. IT has several criteria of exclusion, like removing all women below a particular strength range, not having any women who do not come asking to be made AS, etc. As a result, the distribution will be skewed.
Further, if a subset has a distribution that violates the distribution of the superset, yoy have to assume an error in sampling.

See what I just said about subsets. If that is wrong, then you are right.

That is indeed wrong.

Why not? The median is just the person in the middle, not necessarily the middle of the range. For example, in the following set of numbers:

5, 20, 500, 1000, 5,000

500 is the median. True, in a bell curve, mean=median=mode, so you could have a distribution like this:

10, 20, 30, 40, 40, 60, 80

mean = median = mode = 40

Note that the middle of the range between 10 and 80 is 45.

You're assuming a discontinuous range then. That has absolutely no basis in fact. There is not one shred of proof that certain strengths between the lowest and highest strengths cannot exist, which is what you're implying by having 5 and 20 in your list, but not 10, 15, etc.

See above.

See above! :P

Not necessarily.

Yes necessarily. the mistake you're making is that you think the bell curve distribution is a hypothesis based on random statistical sampling of all channelers. In that case, it is indeed possible that you'll have no person occupying certain strength scales, which will shift the mean.
In this case however, RJ has declared that all his imaginary characters follow this law. And has given absolutely no indication that there are levels which no human can occupy between the minima and the maxima of the range.

I assumed Moiraine and old Siuan were equals, then Siuan was half her old strength (4K and 2K). It seemed a reasonable place to put them within the distribution, since Moiraine is one of the strongest AS. I don't know if 3K is the correct place to put an average AS, but it can make sense in a bell curve (i.e., the average channeler doesn't have to be in the middle of the range).

No it cannot. Not in this bell curve. For that, you'll have to prove that no human has strengths like 12000, 11,000, etc. Which is not true at all.

The distribution is based off the 68-95-99.7 rule (wiki it). In brief, 68% of the population of interest is within plus or minus one SD of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within 3.

I'm quite aware of this, thank you. Why this is being pointed out is my (as yet unanswered) question.

Well yes, but so has RJ. OK, Morgase and a bunch of no-name novices/wilders we've never met, then.

No he has not! There are women thrown out of the Tower because they're too weak. There are women who become Accepted, but not AS. All these women are rarer than women who can become AS, but the Tower doesn't know because they don't actively hunt out all channelers.

Sorry, I skimmed most of this thread, but I saw that people were using shielding as a way to measure strengh. For example, 3 people shielding Semi vs. 2 for egwene, etc. If that is not good for measuring strength (and I don't think it is the best way, really), then forget that point.

The shield theory works okay within the same gender. But we know men can shield men more easily than men can shield women and vice versa. So I think using this to compare male and female strengths is ridiculous.
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 9663 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1957 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1890 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1701 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1786 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1362 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1999 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1683 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1375 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1415 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 873 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1492 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1553 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1521 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1456 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1302 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1372 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1517 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1285 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1182 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1201 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1269 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1544 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1486 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1447 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1326 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1306 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 839 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1409 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1434 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1287 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1310 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1263 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1446 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1550 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1413 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1324 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1347 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1382 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1349 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1282 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1259 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1342 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1488 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1380 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 756 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1501 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1414 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1626 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1469 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1354 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 701 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1425 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1620 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1369 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1372 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1328 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1334 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1285 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1263 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 768 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 712 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1379 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1195 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 1136 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1247 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1245 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1274 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1254 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 1164 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 1209 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 1177 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1235 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1254 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1260 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1749 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1241 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 1165 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 1188 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1234 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 1156 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 1129 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 1234 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1242 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 1137 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1328 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1286 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1349 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1313 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1285 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 1182 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1210 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 667 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 1173 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1203 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 1131 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1327 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1234 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1195 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 1153 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1228 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 1187 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1249 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 1200 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 1191 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 1154 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1222 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1265 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1275 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1292 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1248 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1273 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1218 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1231 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1255 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1245 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1275 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1366 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1459 Views

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