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Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe. Joel Send a noteboard - 23/11/2010 07:32:17 PM
It's only when the generation that remembers the Long March is out of power that the Korean situation could be peacefully resolved as the result of Chinese intervention, and then only if the people in charge of the PLA see that their greed would be hindered by a war on the Korean peninsula. Until those two prerequisites are met, I do not see a peaceful resolution of the situation that would have any pretense of being a long-term solution.

Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?

The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.

Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.

A catspaw is always more useful than a proxy, after all; the former can be left to twist in the wind once they've done your dirty work, and it costs you nothing. Same reason I think it's so absurd that the West is so credulous about North Korea suddenly developing:

1) A nuclear engineering cadre capable of producing nuclear weapons,

2) the technical equipment necessary to process the materials,

3) the uranium ore to enrich by that means,

4) the missile technology necessary to deliver it to the other side of the Pacific and

5) the iridium and other rare metals necessary to construct such missiles

all out of the blue. I mean, sure, China and Russia may have armed them during the Korean Non-War, but SURELY that's not still going on (despite the fact that it's an open secret Pakistan got the bomb from China, which appears quite willing to provide unstable and/or radical governments with nuclear weapons in the interest of geopolitics and personal wealth).

It's ALL about plausible deniability: North Korea can hold South Korea, Japan and, very soon, even CA hostage, and even it all goes to hell and a nuclear exchange occurs Chinas biggest worry is that the wind might shift inland and carry some fallout their way. Meanwhile, the home of 1/6 of America, and much of our technological base, will be glow in the dark glass, and Japan will likely be caught up in the colateral damage (drawing in still more of the US military fervently hoping AEGIS is as good as advertised). They won't even have to make excuses for Kim anymore, they can just cut him loose with no remaining option except an all or nothing impossible to win war, then wring their hands and weep crocodile tears over what the foolish Koreans and Americans have done to each other and their allies.

I see little hope the younger generation, more thoroughly indoctrinated with nationalism than their parents (which is saying a lot in China) and conditioned by the response to Tiananmen to view all dissent as treason, moderates or reconciles. In fact, that may BE the best long term hope, that the younger generation is so convinced of Chinas superiority and ascendancy that they'll force the issue too soon, before victory is as certain as they've been taught. But for now, hell, since Nixon infamously went to China (great Commie fighter that he was), "what incentive do they have?" remains very much the question. Right now they can continue doing as they always have and we'll continue shipping them all our industry in exchange for more debt.

I am so SICK of people committing suicide by default because action is so scary. Seems inescapable anymore though, hence my frustration and disgust.

EDIT: I nearly forgot, but what role do you think Britain might play in the seemingly inevitable conflict? I don't think India could resist the "Peoples" Army long (though the casualties on both sides would be hideous, even in a conventional war) but I see no way for the UK to stay out of that conflict, and then it really is WWIII. Could be a great day to be a Russian, with the rest of Europe and the US facing off against China in a MAD war. I'd hate to be PM if China uses Pakistan against India the same way it's used North Korea against South Korea.... (8
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This message last edited by Joel on 23/11/2010 at 07:48:27 PM
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North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 23/11/2010 10:56:03 AM 1293 Views
"Oh God, Oh God, we are all going to die?" - 23/11/2010 11:09:30 AM 1086 Views
Yup, but the day Beijing decides they're better off not intervening the Appeasers look very dumb. - 23/11/2010 11:23:35 AM 929 Views
The appeasers look very dumb at this point regardless. - 23/11/2010 04:11:41 PM 852 Views
yes, because we want to fight *ANOTHER* proxy war with china *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:29:18 PM 484 Views
"Wanting" has nothing to do with it. There are few alternatives. - 23/11/2010 04:50:02 PM 988 Views
Honestly, it COULD go either way. - 23/11/2010 05:14:18 PM 1130 Views
The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders. - 23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM 937 Views
Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe. - 23/11/2010 07:32:17 PM 1021 Views
I think there's another prerequisite, namely, Taiwan. - 25/11/2010 05:20:43 AM 929 Views
China's relations with North Korea are also worsening, though. - 25/11/2010 05:48:01 PM 1264 Views
What Tom said. - 23/11/2010 05:15:31 PM 934 Views
I figured someone else would post it *NM* - 23/11/2010 11:16:44 AM 424 Views
You know I like to sleep in, remember? - 23/11/2010 11:20:33 AM 928 Views
Agreed - 23/11/2010 02:07:30 PM 1036 Views
I think most Americans are asleep until the sun rises here - 23/11/2010 11:32:28 AM 942 Views
That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:40:33 AM 927 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:46:03 AM 977 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:57:51 AM 859 Views
The really sad part is, that along with everything else worthwhile in the British Empire... - 25/11/2010 09:49:00 AM 1105 Views
you know what they say - 25/11/2010 10:34:30 AM 954 Views
Never send an Englishman to do a man's work? - 25/11/2010 09:06:22 PM 956 Views
I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:14:20 PM 936 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:15:10 PM 800 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:32:17 PM 912 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:36:59 PM 880 Views
Honestly, - 23/11/2010 02:36:13 PM 847 Views
you know the world doesn't exist until america wakes up in the morning, right? *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:27:27 PM 452 Views
I had an inkling. *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:37:37 PM 488 Views
OK, have had time to read it, and someone needs to fact check a very important part of that article. - 23/11/2010 04:52:02 PM 1028 Views
Fact checking: - 23/11/2010 08:38:57 PM 930 Views
The term "truce" used in a different Guardian article seems better. - 23/11/2010 09:20:19 PM 861 Views
my two bits - 23/11/2010 10:51:51 PM 987 Views
I'm glad your ex wasn't there in 1970 then. - 24/11/2010 01:10:02 AM 963 Views
Well - 23/11/2010 05:24:02 PM 966 Views
There's not going to be any all-out conflict - 24/11/2010 12:56:44 AM 1088 Views
They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway. - 24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM 1039 Views
No kidding, that's been going on for quite some time. - 24/11/2010 02:49:50 AM 911 Views
That is the crux of it, I suppose. - 24/11/2010 03:02:40 PM 994 Views
~shrugs~ SK has lived with this a long time, and will continue to do so. - 24/11/2010 10:26:44 PM 968 Views
Parts of it have; some South Koreans stopped living with it a few days ago. - 25/11/2010 01:48:02 PM 1569 Views
They won't be the last. - 02/12/2010 12:55:20 AM 1141 Views
Re: North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 24/11/2010 01:50:11 AM 876 Views

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