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Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. Joel Send a noteboard - 10/06/2011 12:09:13 AM
The particle canon was ultimately questioned, yes, and that's encouraging; the status of GUTs is more troubling. The original GUT doesn't require (despite allowing) proton decay, but seems to be alone in that respect, despite experiments consistently arguing against proton decay (without ruling it out), and a GUT remains a necessary stop on the road to a ToE. I sincerely hope the picture is less muddled than that for those actively leading the search for explanations, though on one level a little confusion would be somewhat encouraging because it would mean people are questioning the canon. From the outside it often feels like GUTs multiply at the same rate "fundamental" particles once did, without improving our understanding any more.

GUTs, despite containing "theory" in their name, are all hypotheses at this point. Hypotheses often multiply without improving our understanding very much, because most of them are wrong. That's why we should try to avoid high levels of confidence in unsupported hypotheses, but we should not avoid generating them altogether, because we have to find the correct ones somehow.

Generating hypotheses by itself is not science; it's really not even amateur philosophy, just day dreaming. Anything you can't test is just speculation, not science; without the scientific method, what is science but speculation? More practically, how does pulling something out of our rear that MIGHT be true (but unverifiable) advance anything? If that qualifies as science angels and aliens are sound scientific hypotheses. When you speculate on speculation, yes, most of your hypotheses will be wrong: That's the problem.
Perhaps not the field as a whole, but since Dr. Carroll says exotic dark matter is confirmed beyond reasonable doubt, I "doubt" he's looking very hard for alternatives. I'm sure there are plenty of similar examples, but that's one we can both agree is representative.

Sean Carroll, like many theorists, constantly looks at new submissions from other theorists on arXiv and in print journals, which includes numerous alternative proposals for dark matter. Everyone wants to be the person who blazes a new trail, but no one wants to be the person who wanders off the trail and gets lost in the woods. Sean, like many astrophysicists, has made the judgment that the risk of getting lost in the woods in this area is no longer worth the reward of blazing a new trail. At this point, you seem to be complaining that Sean has a higher level of confidence than you do in exotic dark matter, as though your level of confidence were more appropriate despite your unfamiliarity with large amounts of the evidence and the fact that cosmology is actually his field. Who's the arrogant one supposed to be, again?

He's no longer claiming confidence alone, but certainty, emphatically and repeatedly. That it was a pre-existing certainty only underscores the reservations that creates in me. Remember, I'm no longer saying exotic dark matter isn't very probably valid, just that it's still too soon to treat it as the slam dunk Dr. Carroll does. It's clear he'd already come to that conclusion and is only citing supporting evidence as it becomes available; that he has the education and awareness to find it doesn't make it more credible.
Not "thought police"; people can think what they wish, but in terms of reason everyone should, though not everyone does, take a critical view, and that's perfectly valid. I'm not questioning their math or their data, I'm simply saying that constructing untested hypotheses on top of others is dubious even if one team got lucky doing so. What would you think of a hypothesis right now that began "assuming dark energy is ultimately proven to exist... "? It might be interesting and even constructive thinking, and might ultimately be verified, but reproducing verifiable proof of something founded on something itself unverified seems a bit sketchy.

I would not think anything special about such a hypothesis; I've heard many that start in just that way. This is how generating hypotheses works; again, no one is putting a high level of confidence in such constructions right away. If you don't like this system, feel free to come up with a better one; I wish you the best of luck.

It's called, "the scientific method", and involves hypotheses one can test, not simply throwing out an idea not fundamentally contradicted by current evidence and hoping someone some day finds a way to test it that ultimately validates it. That's a lot bigger and less certain area than pure science; let's say there's a God, and based on that hypothesis let's say He created man in His image: Having established those things we can say all SORTS of things on the basis of them. None of them would be science though.
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Exciting video about the universe - 28/04/2011 10:14:55 AM 1042 Views
Cool, and true *NM* - 28/04/2011 11:46:29 AM 311 Views
I still think dark matter's just non-luminous matter without a convenient light source to reflect. - 28/04/2011 10:34:21 PM 778 Views
We've just about ruled out the idea that dark matter is just non-luminous "ordinary" matter. - 28/04/2011 11:44:34 PM 708 Views
I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 29/04/2011 01:52:49 AM 641 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 29/04/2011 02:56:32 AM 747 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 30/04/2011 05:02:49 PM 707 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 30/04/2011 08:56:35 PM 580 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 02/05/2011 01:28:30 AM 616 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 04/05/2011 04:18:18 AM 714 Views
There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 07/05/2011 02:04:53 AM 790 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 09/05/2011 11:28:48 PM 627 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 14/05/2011 05:36:45 AM 573 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 17/05/2011 02:09:40 AM 666 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 19/05/2011 04:55:21 AM 587 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 24/05/2011 09:32:27 PM 663 Views
The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 24/05/2011 10:34:04 PM 607 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 24/05/2011 11:08:01 PM 813 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 25/05/2011 01:27:10 AM 624 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 31/05/2011 09:16:18 AM 693 Views
Also, re: lensing from ordinary matter: - 29/04/2011 05:18:47 AM 634 Views
This seems like another example of what confuses the issue. - 30/04/2011 05:25:04 PM 724 Views
Re: This seems like another example of what confuses the issue. - 30/04/2011 08:56:40 PM 732 Views
That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 02/05/2011 01:29:03 AM 729 Views
Re: I still think... (apparently, there is a 100 character limit on subjects, and yours was 99) - 28/04/2011 11:57:15 PM 945 Views
Seems to happen to me a lot; sorry. - 29/04/2011 12:56:14 AM 651 Views
None of this reflects on the actual facts of dark matter. - 29/04/2011 01:32:52 AM 619 Views
I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 30/04/2011 04:30:28 PM 746 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 30/04/2011 08:56:44 PM 578 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 02/05/2011 01:28:58 AM 1089 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 04/05/2011 04:18:27 AM 620 Views
I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 07/05/2011 02:05:09 AM 811 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 09/05/2011 11:32:17 PM 732 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 14/05/2011 05:36:24 AM 888 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 17/05/2011 02:10:03 AM 644 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 19/05/2011 04:33:06 AM 885 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 24/05/2011 09:59:38 PM 637 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 24/05/2011 11:19:43 PM 605 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 24/05/2011 11:33:58 PM 565 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 25/05/2011 12:55:36 AM 687 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 31/05/2011 09:16:24 AM 599 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 10/06/2011 12:09:13 AM 783 Views

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