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Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM

The Tower mostly excludes people who are too weak to test for the shawl. Not only do we know this for a fact, we actually know what percentage of women are excluded for this reason. 37.5% to be precise.

That means 37.5% of women are weaker than Dagian, by the way. The one indisputable fact we have in this debate.

Thank you for finally acknowledging that.
Now, if you took a random sample, you would expect the average to be more or less equal to the average of the entire population. But this sample (the Aes Sedai)is not random, in fact, it excludes 37.5% of women who are weaker than Dagian. Thereofore, a sample consisting only of Aes Sedai would be skewed to the stronger side of the range. In other words, the average for this sample would fall above the average for the entire population.

Nope. Simply because the Tower also ends up excluding the very strong channelers. The 1000 sisters we consider in the Tower do not have a range from Morghase to Lanfear. They have a range from Daigian to Moiraine. The average, therefore, is likely to be close to (though not exactly, since the exclusion is skewed towards one side, we don't know which, exactly) 50. The strongest sisters like Moiriane are likely to be a level or two above the average woman, that's all.
Therefore, the average Aes Sedai is stronger than the average woman. Now from my recollection, women like Alanna and Verin are already above average for an Aes Sedai. That means, according to your theory, Alanna and Verin would each be more than 50% as strong as Rand.

Nope.


I just can't understand you and Siddy here. You ignore RJ's quote, ignore the mathematics, plug your ears with your fingers and keep repeating that you have to be right. If you want to disprove what I'm saying, why not come up with an actual "relative scale" that you guys keep harping about and show me how that fits a bell curve and proves your point. It won't. Seen a relative grading for an exam? They use bell curves too. They skew the average by excluding the outliers so that the average will clutter around the score the most number of people got. But RJ said his bell curve covers all channelers. You would need to exclude people from the level of Egwene or something to come up with an average strength of 25.

I know and understand how this almost 100% boost to Aes Sedai strength can be confusing and disorienting. The first time I saw the bell curve statement, I was similarly thrown off.

Lets take the one example that can prove this.

Verin, Shalon and Kumira vs. Graendal.

You'd put Verin at 20, Shalon at 22, Kumira at 11 (since she is just stronger than Daigian) and Graendal at a minimum of 80, right?

Now, Verin and Graendal had angreal, though both call it weak. Lets say Verin's multiplied her strength by 2 and Graendal's multiplied her strength 1.5 times.

Then the circle had 40+22+11-10=63 (taking into account loss of strength due to linking. Even if you put it down to loss of only 5, their strength is only 6. So, roughly, lets put their strength at 65. Lets say the precision advantage boosts this to 85, even.
Even with this, Graendal has a strength of 80*1.5= 120!

This circle beat back Graendal with the loss of one member. Yet, you want me to believe that Egwene at 45, with Romanda and Lelaine at 25, meaning a combined strength linked of 85, cannot beat back one of the male Forsaken unaided? That is laughable. Even if you say Verin's angreal increases her strength by 3, and Kumira is of strength 15, their circle still has a maximum strength of a 100/110.
And Graendal still has the amazing skill advantages, yet she gets beaten back?

Clearly, there's something wrong with your placement. Aspects of the text, as well as the one mathematical fact we have about OP strength disprove it.
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 9208 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1882 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1819 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1624 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1710 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1297 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1906 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1602 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1283 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1332 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 835 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1417 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1477 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1453 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1377 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1224 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1294 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1434 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1205 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1113 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1127 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1190 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1476 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1407 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1369 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1251 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1237 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 807 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1340 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1361 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1203 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1239 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1191 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1375 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1480 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1344 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1253 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1270 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1314 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1273 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1211 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1178 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1264 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1412 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1303 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 721 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1426 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1350 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1552 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1401 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1280 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 666 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1358 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1539 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1302 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1290 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1261 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1261 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1219 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1183 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 735 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 683 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1313 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1123 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 1072 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1179 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1177 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1201 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1185 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 1093 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 1132 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 1110 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1162 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1183 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1191 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1671 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1171 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 1075 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 1103 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1167 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 1091 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 1059 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 1165 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1165 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 1068 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1254 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1215 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1273 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1235 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1209 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 1102 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1135 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 629 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 1091 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1130 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 1061 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1244 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1162 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1120 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 1080 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1155 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 1122 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1176 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 1119 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 1119 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 1079 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1155 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1196 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1200 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1218 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1166 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1203 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1148 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1154 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1182 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1166 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1200 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1265 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1379 Views

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