He didn't say he was joking. He was trying to spring a trap, and you happened to be a suitable target for it.
The problem is, as inactivity goes as a criteria for this sort of trap, Hieshyn and Bergioyn stick out as most inactive, and again, the weird thing about that, which may simply be coincidence, is that both hypocopped Fox and both found him guilty. Now, Fox is not a lightning rod so loosely speaking, his odds of being hypocopped guilty by a given player should have 1 in 30. For this to happen twice, and by two players who have been very inactive, seems to stretch coincidence a bit. This is actually exacerbated by three people hypocopping me, which I assume was meant to cover for the cop since I was the expected target, it's entirely possible all three of my hypocoppers aren't cops, but I'm assuming they targeted me for HC to protect the cop, or appear to be doing so. This really shoves those odds down, I doubt anyone who hypocopped me did it truly random (which is fine, we don't really want true random target selection) but removing them as random selectors pumps the odds of HCing Fox guilty for a given player to 1 in 45 (roughly) and this simply seems unlikely.
Which ever the case, Fox is simply too old a hand at this game not to stare at the HCT for clues if he was a DF. First thing a DF does on a complete table is start eliminating players as 'can't be a cop' which is troublesome obviously in a 3 faction game. I believe him when he says he didn't even notice the HCT, because townies often don't, we view it early on as a receipt for later audit, on it's first day it holds no obvious clues for the town.
I can't see a DF not looking at it though, and since he'd been hit by not one but two guilty hypocops, if he were a DF, I think he'd have been genuinely panicked. These things don't bother me much, because I get HC'd in droves, but were I a DF and saw one of my allies HC'd guilty by two players, without any advance basis that might attract lots of HC's, I'd assume one of them was the cop and be very worried and ramping up bussing efforts. Yet, nobody has done so, no deliberate distancing etc, which makes me think he is not a DF. Can you see him, as a DF, trying this trap on inactives while the two most inactives HC'd you guilty? Can you see a DF allied to him not having laid at least some groundwork to been seen as somewhat suspicious of Fox and most definetly not allied?
I feel the weight of evidence, compared to the realistic scenarios, strongly favors Fox being town, and if nothing else, it doesn't seem to point anti-town.
Further, the flavor of his debate with me over ranagrande just doesn't seem very DFish. HE took a strong stance and rather than retreating from it when challenged, defended it for a prolonged period of time, DF's don't usually take strong early stances (self excluded) and when their arguments for their framee start disintegrating they tend to jump ship on it pretty quick. His actions, IMO, come off much more as townie following a genuine suspicion as opposed to DF trying to cobble together a frame job on an available target. I could be wrong, Fox's trap may be what Hieshyn thinks it is, but I doubt it.
So while I agree to Hieshyn's vote seeming more OMGUS than anything else, I really feel we need to consider the possibility that something deeper is going on here, there are too many coincidences involved for me to dismiss it.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafo Mafia 4 Day 2 is over.
- 08/02/2010 06:53:53 PM
3726 Views
Well, I guess I'll kick off this discussion
- 08/02/2010 08:53:49 PM
1648 Views
Re: Well, I guess I'll kick off this discussion
- 08/02/2010 09:28:57 PM
1445 Views
Hey, by the way, are you Mafia?
- 08/02/2010 09:34:46 PM
1626 Views
I am not Hopper
- 08/02/2010 10:37:55 PM
1501 Views
- 08/02/2010 10:37:55 PM
1501 Views
Maybe I am AWESOME
- 08/02/2010 11:19:48 PM
1548 Views
A few questions and comments
- 08/02/2010 09:29:06 PM
1505 Views
Re: Well, I guess I'll kick off this discussion
- 09/02/2010 02:47:03 AM
1481 Views
RBIRL ... test tomorrow. Probably not going to post tonight. *NM*
- 09/02/2010 12:03:38 AM
896 Views
You know what?
- 09/02/2010 01:17:52 AM
1451 Views
Re: You know what?
- 09/02/2010 01:34:42 AM
1406 Views
Heh, inorganic chemistry.
- 09/02/2010 01:57:39 AM
1445 Views
Re: Heh, inorganic chemistry.
- 09/02/2010 02:38:45 AM
1452 Views
Re: Heh, inorganic chemistry.
- 09/02/2010 03:29:32 AM
1540 Views
Re: Heh, inorganic chemistry.
- 09/02/2010 03:36:28 AM
1469 Views
Well thanks for the encouragement.
- 09/02/2010 04:14:50 AM
1639 Views
- 09/02/2010 04:14:50 AM
1639 Views
Heh, Mafia: Other than the occasional lynching or assassination, we're one big supportive family.
- 09/02/2010 04:24:26 AM
1589 Views
Hypocop (Table)
- 09/02/2010 12:59:06 AM
1556 Views
I investigated Fox and Ravens and found hi to be for the shadow. *NM*
- 09/02/2010 04:46:50 AM
850 Views
Hmmm,
- 09/02/2010 06:18:29 AM
1420 Views
We didn't lose two of our biggest roles. Also- I wonder if there are more roles?
- 09/02/2010 06:35:05 AM
1328 Views
Re: We didn't lose two of our biggest roles. Also- I wonder if there are more roles?
- 09/02/2010 07:16:19 AM
1435 Views
Huh. Oh boy oh
- 09/02/2010 06:39:15 AM
1283 Views
Care to give us your thoughts? *NM*
- 09/02/2010 07:26:09 AM
872 Views
Well, losing Doc and Deputy same night is bound to cause trouble. Especially losing Doc. *NM*
- 09/02/2010 08:54:49 AM
856 Views
I want to throw this out here.
- 09/02/2010 07:21:04 AM
1478 Views
What changed your mind? *NM*
- 09/02/2010 08:58:09 AM
837 Views
Well, I realized I was the one telling everyone to just vote for someone.
- 09/02/2010 04:56:17 PM
1508 Views
Why is everyone assuming we have a SK?
- 10/02/2010 12:09:47 AM
1513 Views
What tips me off is the "melted plastic".
- 10/02/2010 12:22:56 AM
1355 Views
That's so arbitrary, though.
- 10/02/2010 12:57:09 AM
1268 Views
EBWOP: It's probably not a vigilante.
- 10/02/2010 01:05:57 AM
1521 Views
That seems like good reasoning
- 10/02/2010 01:50:47 AM
1442 Views
Re: That seems like good reasoning
- 10/02/2010 01:58:14 AM
1486 Views
That's a vig rule? I did not know that
- 10/02/2010 08:16:56 PM
1427 Views
Well, it's pretty common sense.
- 10/02/2010 09:09:09 PM
1558 Views
I think he might have been referring to vigilante kills being blockable
- 10/02/2010 09:43:53 PM
1369 Views
As the resident expert on vigilantism
- 10/02/2010 08:04:17 PM
1771 Views
Youre the resident expert on vigilantism? *NM*
- 11/02/2010 11:06:24 PM
845 Views
He was a vig once or twice. *NM*
- 12/02/2010 01:33:57 AM
862 Views
Wait, haven't you proposed an arsonist most games. *NM*
- 10/02/2010 04:37:33 AM
810 Views
Because we have a SK *NM*
- 10/02/2010 05:14:00 AM
781 Views
wait a minute
- 10/02/2010 01:15:32 PM
1460 Views
Another thing
- 10/02/2010 04:42:50 PM
1549 Views
F-T, I assume
- 10/02/2010 05:08:58 PM
1382 Views
Probably, might be a hint at an RB but I doubt it *NM*
- 10/02/2010 06:57:01 PM
839 Views
I don't think it could be a RB
- 10/02/2010 07:47:55 PM
1494 Views
We're stalling out a bit
- 11/02/2010 10:05:09 PM
1406 Views
We could talk about my heroic failure to defend the innocent some more? Fine...
- 12/02/2010 07:12:51 AM
1467 Views
You seem engaged in a very active defense so far this game
- 12/02/2010 09:40:23 PM
1635 Views
Yawn...
- 12/02/2010 11:28:50 PM
1579 Views
Re: Yawn...
- 13/02/2010 12:32:30 AM
1550 Views
Re: Yawn...
- 13/02/2010 01:31:41 AM
1492 Views
He's brought up accusations on himself
- 13/02/2010 02:40:01 AM
1613 Views
Alrighty, let's try this again.
- 14/02/2010 06:38:26 AM
1285 Views
On F-T's accusations against you.
- 14/02/2010 01:54:20 AM
1459 Views
Re: On F-T's accusations against you.
- 14/02/2010 03:43:52 AM
1350 Views
That's right, I am the Breaker of Unbroken Records
- 14/02/2010 05:56:52 AM
1424 Views
- 14/02/2010 05:56:52 AM
1424 Views
Actually, quite few of my streaks were broken on that one
- 14/02/2010 08:43:09 AM
1367 Views
I'm in second? Woo!
- 14/02/2010 02:46:05 PM
1424 Views
Yep, welcome to being a lightning rod
- 14/02/2010 09:10:43 PM
1560 Views
- 14/02/2010 09:10:43 PM
1560 Views
I'm not gonna be as targeted as you; I've died a LOT.
- 14/02/2010 11:17:24 PM
1428 Views
Ironically I don't think I've ever killed you
- 14/02/2010 11:56:03 PM
1404 Views
Game 1 I remember.
- 15/02/2010 12:01:21 AM
1283 Views
Re: Game 1 I remember.
- 15/02/2010 12:19:30 AM
1646 Views
Three stalled out over the winter holidays and we had to restart.
- 15/02/2010 01:26:59 AM
1630 Views
Actually...
- 15/02/2010 04:57:50 PM
1495 Views
A second line of thought: ranagrande
- 12/02/2010 07:40:37 AM
1691 Views
Vote: Hieshyn
- 15/02/2010 03:27:04 AM
1278 Views
Re: Hieshyn
- 15/02/2010 12:54:42 PM
1562 Views
Well, it's less that discussion is winding down, and more that we don't have any new topics
- 15/02/2010 05:48:22 PM
1338 Views
Well this was unexpected.
- 15/02/2010 06:07:44 PM
1393 Views
Re: Well this was unexpected.
- 15/02/2010 08:30:57 PM
1399 Views
I think he's saying that he's been quiet because he's busy, not a DF
- 15/02/2010 08:39:53 PM
1303 Views
If he was the SK
- 15/02/2010 07:55:38 PM
1502 Views
Game 9 was F-T's Cairhienen Civil War/Succession.
- 15/02/2010 08:53:03 PM
1362 Views
Oh that's right!
- 15/02/2010 09:03:40 PM
1368 Views
Re: Game 9 was F-T's Cairhienen Civil War/Succession.
- 15/02/2010 11:54:44 PM
1457 Views
Lol irony
- 16/02/2010 12:16:49 AM
1424 Views
So, it's just because he hasn't been talking much? That fits a lot of people
- 15/02/2010 09:31:02 PM
1505 Views
OK, I'm glad that vote got some discussion flowing.
- 16/02/2010 02:58:55 AM
1537 Views
Ooo sneaky sneaky
- 16/02/2010 03:58:37 AM
1628 Views
Re: Ooo sneaky sneaky
- 16/02/2010 04:25:26 AM
1439 Views
You know doing this sort of thing can get you lynched
- 16/02/2010 04:40:23 AM
1496 Views
Oh, I know it can.
- 16/02/2010 05:23:13 AM
1472 Views
Re: Oh, I know it can.
- 16/02/2010 07:00:53 AM
1533 Views
It's weird- I've never played Live Mafia, but I imagine it's very different.
- 16/02/2010 08:58:09 AM
1519 Views
I'm still here, I've been busy with studying, and hadn't realized I was gone this long.
- 16/02/2010 06:50:44 AM
1396 Views
Sorry all. Friday thru Monday suddenly got really hectic, I wasn't home much at all.
- 18/02/2010 01:54:02 AM
1428 Views
So, where are we at?
- 18/02/2010 02:40:32 AM
1447 Views
EBWOP: Issac's maybe only a 5.5. No, a 5.7
- 18/02/2010 06:58:40 AM
1478 Views
OK so I apparantly lack the technical know-how to reply to myself
- 18/02/2010 07:08:36 AM
1541 Views
Re: OK so I apparantly lack the technical know-how to reply to myself
- 18/02/2010 07:54:05 AM
1434 Views
Well yeah, all of that is mostly why I haven't been pushing anything
- 18/02/2010 08:51:14 AM
1344 Views
Uggggghhhh...Ok. This post makes me want to vote you off.
- 18/02/2010 03:28:19 PM
1353 Views
You seem to have misunbderstood my question
- 18/02/2010 04:28:47 PM
1380 Views
Re: You seem to have misunbderstood my question
- 18/02/2010 05:10:14 PM
1592 Views
Nice little typo I have there on misundertood, that's gonna be nagging at me for all of Day 2
- 18/02/2010 05:25:49 PM
1371 Views
Re: Nice little typo I have there on misundertood, that's gonna be nagging at me for all of Day 2
- 19/02/2010 04:45:25 AM
1355 Views
Thanks, all right let's review it
- 19/02/2010 11:41:19 AM
1395 Views
Alright then.
- 19/02/2010 05:20:39 PM
1176 Views
EBWOP
- 19/02/2010 05:23:06 PM
1539 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 19/02/2010 06:53:08 PM
1514 Views
Naive?
- 19/02/2010 07:13:14 PM
1509 Views
Naive or sinister, take your pick
- 19/02/2010 07:29:09 PM
1484 Views
We could go with "arrogant," instead of either of those, if you like
- 20/02/2010 01:59:22 AM
1247 Views
Hmm...well here's something interesting now that you reminded me of that game...
- 19/02/2010 08:26:33 PM
1348 Views
Re: Hmm...well here's something interesting now that you reminded me of that game...
- 19/02/2010 08:40:47 PM
1350 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 19/02/2010 08:32:55 PM
1335 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 19/02/2010 08:57:50 PM
1329 Views
Actually, that reminds me. HEY KRONIN!
- 18/02/2010 07:09:39 AM
1398 Views
Hey.
- 18/02/2010 04:09:08 PM
1443 Views
Re: Hey.
- 18/02/2010 05:37:33 PM
1551 Views
FT had no evidence one way or the other if Issac was a DF
- 18/02/2010 05:44:43 PM
1328 Views
Don't put words in my mouth.
- 18/02/2010 06:03:55 PM
1534 Views
Oh no, I know, I know. I'm just saying, FT has no more credibility than any of us *NM*
- 18/02/2010 07:48:58 PM
845 Views
But he IS a damn good player, and his advice, however limited, should be taken into account. *NM*
- 18/02/2010 07:49:58 PM
821 Views
fistofpainx, Do you have any thoughts?
- 18/02/2010 05:46:38 PM
1430 Views
I think that
- 18/02/2010 09:45:56 PM
1465 Views
Well, if my combine the Vote Record with our previous suspicions...
- 18/02/2010 09:48:24 PM
1396 Views
All right, ranagrande (and everyone else). Why shouldn't we lynch you?
- 18/02/2010 11:32:07 PM
1390 Views
Re: All right, ranagrande (and everyone else). Why shouldn't we lynch you?
- 19/02/2010 03:01:45 AM
1312 Views
Re: All right, ranagrande (and everyone else). Why shouldn't we lynch you?
- 19/02/2010 04:07:03 AM
1465 Views
I think you're overestimating the appearance of your own innocence.
- 19/02/2010 05:38:53 AM
1352 Views
Yeah, it's mostly just about getting the conversation going
- 19/02/2010 06:40:17 AM
1415 Views
In response to Fox and Ravens (down here to stop horizontal scroll)
- 19/02/2010 09:50:16 PM
1444 Views
Re: In response to Fox and Ravens (down here to stop horizontal scroll)
- 19/02/2010 10:22:37 PM
1464 Views
Well, the reason for the prohibition doesn't apply post-game, so I'll go with no
- 20/02/2010 05:07:38 AM
1385 Views
After seeing this thread....
- 20/02/2010 05:53:47 AM
1303 Views
Go ahead and start one then.
- 20/02/2010 06:08:12 AM
1430 Views
Re: Go ahead and start one then.
- 20/02/2010 06:47:23 AM
1511 Views
Isaac, did you say you have Cor's original rules saved somewhere?
- 20/02/2010 04:50:29 PM
1541 Views
Re: Isaac, did you say you have Cor's original rules saved somewhere?
- 20/02/2010 05:16:09 PM
1576 Views
Alright.
- 20/02/2010 05:43:51 PM
1461 Views
Thanks
- 20/02/2010 07:48:20 PM
1333 Views
Re: Thanks
- 20/02/2010 10:35:26 PM
1314 Views
Ranagrande *NM*
- 21/02/2010 12:55:29 AM
798 Views
Really?
- 21/02/2010 01:58:24 AM
1452 Views
Re: Thanks
- 21/02/2010 01:57:25 AM
1423 Views
Well, you kind of said it yourself.
- 21/02/2010 07:38:32 PM
1368 Views
I'm purposefully trying to not be so focussed on ranagrande
- 21/02/2010 11:06:40 PM
1459 Views
Not sure I follow
- 22/02/2010 06:49:11 PM
1485 Views
Items of note from my NB archive:
- 21/02/2010 09:37:49 PM
1562 Views
I am kind of confused about what you're doing here.
- 22/02/2010 07:20:49 PM
1597 Views
I'm feeling the same thing.
- 22/02/2010 07:36:46 PM
1440 Views
I hadn't even seen Beet's post at the bottom there until after I'd posted this.
- 22/02/2010 07:44:49 PM
1389 Views
Re: Rafo Mafia 4 Day 2
- 22/02/2010 12:09:20 PM
1489 Views
Alright. Here's a quick synposis
- 22/02/2010 07:54:19 PM
1474 Views
That sounds about right to me.
- 22/02/2010 07:58:29 PM
1444 Views
I'll try to, I just may not have the time to. If I do, I'll definately read them all. *NM*
- 23/02/2010 07:05:24 AM
756 Views
Another minor piece against ranagrande
- 22/02/2010 07:13:44 PM
1482 Views
Re: Another minor piece against ranagrande
- 22/02/2010 08:23:48 PM
1598 Views
Fair enough
- 22/02/2010 08:38:51 PM
1575 Views
Re: Fair enough
- 22/02/2010 09:07:57 PM
1404 Views
Maybe I missed it....
- 22/02/2010 09:26:47 PM
1511 Views
Re: Maybe I missed it....
- 23/02/2010 09:38:23 PM
1385 Views
I will destroy the world
- 23/02/2010 11:17:26 PM
1511 Views
And yet, that's the exact same thing you called me out on yesterday. *NM*
- 24/02/2010 01:07:07 AM
725 Views
Ok, that's totally different...
- 24/02/2010 06:36:00 AM
1372 Views
All that's different is the presumed final intent.
- 24/02/2010 12:36:32 PM
1489 Views
Yeah ... those are pretty much the same. *NM*
- 24/02/2010 03:17:25 PM
723 Views
Yea.... beet's looking worse and worse every time he opens his mouth, so to speak. *NM*
- 24/02/2010 09:00:47 PM
826 Views
No, this is my view:
- 24/02/2010 11:23:25 PM
1508 Views
And my view was:
- 25/02/2010 01:29:13 AM
1394 Views
shrug. I haven't been attacking you today, you know
- 25/02/2010 01:46:39 AM
1453 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
- 24/02/2010 04:51:24 AM
819 Views
Can I ask why?
- 24/02/2010 05:06:22 AM
1402 Views
We're sort of in a holding pattern here, Hieshyn
- 25/02/2010 07:01:23 PM
1581 Views
You're right, Isaac.
- 25/02/2010 08:47:03 PM
1565 Views
Though I presume this was already somewhat obvious, ^Seconded. *NM*
- 25/02/2010 08:56:19 PM
734 Views
I'll agree. Beet has been suspicious, and we havent found enough with ranagrande to continue *NM*
- 26/02/2010 02:00:36 AM
849 Views
At first I thought he was going for a F&R-style trap
- 26/02/2010 01:44:16 AM
1473 Views
RBIRL. Had a lot of school stuff, gone for the weekend. Sorry. *NM*
- 27/02/2010 01:05:40 AM
816 Views
Sorry I've been insanely busy.
- 27/02/2010 03:33:43 AM
1553 Views
This seems a lot like an OMGUS.
- 27/02/2010 07:02:12 AM
1375 Views
Well, we have a very weird situation here
- 27/02/2010 05:13:12 PM
1472 Views
Re: Sorry I've been insanely busy.
- 27/02/2010 07:06:39 AM
1452 Views
Okay, let's try to finish off today
- 27/02/2010 07:27:09 PM
1486 Views
Interesting.
- 27/02/2010 09:28:33 PM
1392 Views
I sort of assumed everyone knew where I'm aiming, I've been pretty open about it
- 27/02/2010 09:45:50 PM
1444 Views
Vote: ranagrande
- 27/02/2010 09:12:51 PM
1393 Views
What, if anything, has changed?
- 28/02/2010 03:19:49 AM
1385 Views
Dang, I didn't know you could make text larger. Fancy! *NM*
- 28/02/2010 04:57:28 AM
793 Views
A little joke
- 28/02/2010 05:16:14 AM
2181 Views
Yikes (warning: lots of text)
- 28/02/2010 12:35:16 AM
1412 Views
Guess I'll set up the other camp: Vote: beetnemesis
- 28/02/2010 03:22:49 AM
1377 Views
my stance on voting
- 01/03/2010 03:08:33 AM
1517 Views
Re: my stance on voting
- 01/03/2010 03:21:32 AM
1533 Views
Perhaps a deadline would liven things up?
- 02/03/2010 08:46:35 PM
1380 Views
I hope you all feel really guilty about this
- 03/03/2010 06:22:57 AM
1296 Views
Not likely, we're pretty draconian about lynches these days
- 03/03/2010 09:15:00 AM
1308 Views
..I can and HAVE rebutted these.
- 03/03/2010 05:15:32 PM
1356 Views
EBWOP: I need to start hitting preview to make sure the formatting is right.
- 03/03/2010 05:18:43 PM
1343 Views
I'm sorry, I am not convinced
- 03/03/2010 11:16:36 PM
1305 Views
I figured it'd be meaningless to RC, but ok...
- 04/03/2010 01:54:36 AM
1378 Views
All right, let's look at this
- 04/03/2010 02:06:58 AM
1488 Views
I find this very, very, very, VERY unlikely.
- 04/03/2010 05:25:41 AM
1523 Views
At this point I feel like anything I could say would only hurt my case
- 04/03/2010 06:34:43 AM
1420 Views
You brought this upon yourself.
- 03/03/2010 01:06:58 PM
1367 Views
Are you a Town Roleblocker? (Table) - Summary: All 'No'
- 04/03/2010 02:28:55 AM
1563 Views
Well, I don't think there is much point in further delay
- 04/03/2010 11:44:57 PM
1295 Views
I think that's everyone.
- 05/03/2010 04:39:23 AM
1292 Views
Well, Beet already hammered.
- 05/03/2010 06:44:08 AM
1396 Views
Beetnemesis has been lynched
- 05/03/2010 05:38:05 PM
1459 Views
Sorry Beet!
*NM*
- 06/03/2010 05:11:56 AM
814 Views
*NM*
- 06/03/2010 05:11:56 AM
814 Views
You shall be the only one I don't haunt *NM*
- 06/03/2010 06:29:23 AM
734 Views
Yo, what did I do to you? *NM*
- 06/03/2010 06:47:51 PM
881 Views
I meant of those who lynched me! You shall be EXALTED!
- 06/03/2010 06:52:39 PM
1510 Views


*NM*

*NM*