Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
Shannow Send a noteboard - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
Hi all,
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
The curve is not a normal distribution reflecting absolute units of strength. A normal distribution is disproven by the fact that Daigian is very close to the mean (only 12.5% of channelers fall between her and the mean according to RJ) and yet she is barely one tenth of Lanfear's strength.
Hence, the mean cannot be equidistant between Lanfear and Morgase's strengths. Hence, what we are dealing with here is a distribution skewed towards the lower side, meaning that more channelers fall on the weak side than on the strong side.
The only alternative, is that each level does not represent a set increase in raw strength, but instead represents some type of logarithmic strength increase, meaning that the distance between each consecutive SD is not set.
If it was a normal distribution, I would put Lanfear at a strength level of 1 in 150 million women. (Assuming a population of 10 billion and a 3% channeling frequency, half of whom would be women.)
There is no one that matched Lanfear, to the best of our knowledge. I think she was unique, just like I don't think Ishamael truly matched Lews Therin's strength.
This message last edited by Shannow on 17/11/2012 at 07:55:34 PM
How many standard deviations is Lanfear
15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM
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Hmm...
15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
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see we CAN agree on stuff
15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
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18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
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Re:
18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
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Re:
19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
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Re:
19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
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They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM
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Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM
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Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM
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Hmmm...
20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM
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Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed
20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM
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Nope...
20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM
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I believe she is being over dramatic
20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM
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Keep believing that...
20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM
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*shrugs*
20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM
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Tired and forkroot are the same now?
20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM
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No it's the literary device
20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM
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Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean
19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM
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You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution
19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM
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That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it.
19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM
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keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM*
20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM
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Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics.
20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM
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Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless
16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM
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I don't really agree
18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM
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Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM
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Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM
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Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
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You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM*
18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM
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You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved.
18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM
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Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created.
18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM
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It doesn't matter what figure you use...
18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM
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What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength?
18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM
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Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM
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Re: Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
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You're right, though its 37.5%
19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM
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Oops, typo!
19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM
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Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean
19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM
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Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM
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Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM
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Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM
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Forkroot in every case
20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM
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No!
20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM
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I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this
20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM
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You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused.
20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM
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Not going to argue this with you.
20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM
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Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM
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let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength
20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM
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Enough!
20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM
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LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM*
20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM
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Re: Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM
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Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than
20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM
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Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM
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None of this is backed by any evidence...
20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM
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who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more?
20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM
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Nope...
20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM
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wrong
20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM
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Better evidence? LOL!
20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM
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Huh? How did you come to that conclusion?
20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM
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BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene?
20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM
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I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene
20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM
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Interesting, but let's go with your figures...
19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM
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Indeed
19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM
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Rand is sort of a special case
20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM
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Regarding Mesaana...
20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM
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You continue to mix two things
20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM
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No
20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM
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You are mistaken
20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM
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Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means
19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM
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It's irrelevant
19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM
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Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength.
19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM
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Daigian
19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM
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It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote
19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM
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You missed my point
19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
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Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM
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Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM
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Re: Sure you can
19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM
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Care to explain this...
19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM
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Indeed
20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM
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Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo.
20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM
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Well duh.
20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM
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Incorrect.
20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM
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No
20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM
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You're integrating without lower limits...
20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM
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We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM
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Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM
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You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM
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Re: You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM
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Morghase is a placeholder...
20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM
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Well...
18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM
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Re: Well...
19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM
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Wow.
19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM
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Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM
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Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM
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this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM
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Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM
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I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery
20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM
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Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable...
21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
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the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
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Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM
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I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power
22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM
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