Active Users:736 Time:19/03/2026 05:25:39 PM
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me BlackAdder Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.

Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.

First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.

But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.

The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.

For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?


If it's true that RJ has said OP strength follows a normal distribution, then a 1-100 scale is probably not a great scale to use. As you go more standard deviations out at the extreme, the change in OP strength should stay the same (the amount of the standard deviation). Not so in this scale.

So, the first thing that needs to be done is use a different scale that better illustrates OP differences.

When RJ talks about difference in steps, I would assume that means standard deviation in terms of statistics and his reference to bell curve.
This message last edited by BlackAdder on 18/12/2009 at 12:21:50 AM
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 9353 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1907 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1849 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1657 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1741 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1325 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1946 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1627 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1314 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1363 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 845 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1449 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1506 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1477 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1407 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1259 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1320 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1464 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1233 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1142 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1158 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1221 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1505 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1440 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1398 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1278 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1263 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 818 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1366 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1390 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1237 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1265 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1220 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1404 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1507 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1369 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1278 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1299 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1339 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1301 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1237 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1209 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1293 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1446 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1330 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 735 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1452 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1374 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1578 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1420 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1308 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 679 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1381 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1574 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1328 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1321 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1289 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1282 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1247 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1216 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 747 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 692 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1337 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1152 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 1098 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1204 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1207 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1224 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1212 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 1124 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 1162 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 1135 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1190 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1212 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1217 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1701 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1200 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 1106 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 1133 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1190 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 1114 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 1087 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 1192 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1197 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 1097 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1282 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1239 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1303 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1266 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1235 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 1129 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1162 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 645 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 1119 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1159 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 1084 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1271 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1191 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1146 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 1110 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1180 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 1148 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1207 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 1146 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 1149 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 1110 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1182 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1221 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1228 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1243 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1203 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1227 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1174 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1178 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1208 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1192 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1228 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1300 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1411 Views

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