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The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM


These are just example. Again, I don't care if you think they are right or wrong - I'm trying trying to talk about statistics.

If you don't care what I think, then you shouldn't be debating with me!

Rand - 25,000 units of OP
Moridin - 24,500
Lanfear - 24,000
Semirhage - 20,000
Nynaeve - 19,500
Moghiedien - 15,000
Egwene - 10,000
Moiraine - 4,000
The average AS - 3,000
Siuan - 2000


I'll let this stand.

Considering the tower has ~1000 AS, and going by normal distribution, there will be 68% of AS within one standard deviation.

The normal distribution encompasses all women according to RJ, not just women in the Tower or women strong enough to be admitted in the Tower.
Women like Sorilea and Morghase can never be Aes Sedai, but they must be considered in the bell curve. Meaning that in your range, we need values below 2000 to get any accurate values.
Second, if the strongest possible woman has an effective strength of 25000 units (which is true, since RJ said that effectively, the strongest woman equals the strongest man), and the weakest 100 (or one or 20, take your pick), then the mean will be the median of these values.
That means, if we assume 3,000 units is the Tower mean,

I see no reason to assume such a ridiculous value for the mean. It violates the central feature of a normal distribution that the mean equals the median. And the median of the range 2000 to 25000 is most certainly not 3000!
then 68% will be within one SD of that. The SD will be whatever strength level accounts for 34% of AS greater than the mean (or 34% less than the mean), going in sequential order of strength.

Again, you assume female channeler=Aes Sedai. You're also working from a very weird assumption for the value of the mean that is mathematically insupportable.
I frankly don't see why the standard deviation is being dragged into this at all. Whatever the standard deviation turns out to be for this range of 2k-25k, the median and the mean of the distribution will be 13500.
Let's just assume that that the standard deviation in the tower is 500 units.

I haven't done the calcualtions, but on what basis is this assumed? Further, why is this assumed at all? Sure, the standard deviation can help us define the range. But with the range already defined, this is a needless calculation for our pusposes.
quoteThat puts Moirane (4,000 units) in the top 2.5% of the Tower (25 strongest Aes Sedai) and the new Siuan (2,000 units) in the bottom 2.5 % of the Tower (25 weakest Aes Sedai).
Okay... I'm still waiting to see what all this says about channelers as a whole.
Each is 2 standard deviations from the mean of 3,000, which means the middle of the bell curve accounts for 95% of sisters, with Moiraine and Siuan on opposite ends of the curve.

Dude, you assumed the mean (erroneously), you assumed the standard deviations, you assumed the distance from the mean at which Moiraine and Siuan are placed and then strung these together to give me "proof" that Moiriane being less than a sixth as strong as Rand is supported by the bell curve. I could have done the same thing and "proved" that Moiraine is of strength 20, and Rand 25000!

Notice that the "Big Dogs" are well above that. You have to consider that there are very few "Big Dogs" compared to your run of the mill AS.

There should also be an equally tiny number of "small dogs" which you seem to have ignored completely.
I believe Sidious' scale was meant to be (or should be) some sort of exponential scale. There is no way that 2 average AS would be able to subdue Rand (in fact, they can't).

Well, no one is saying two average AS can subdue Rand. Show me where anyone assumed that and I'll concede the point. All we're saying is that by any twisting you do, the average female strength, which will be the strength of the largest number of women, will be half that of Rand's.
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8561 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1709 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1675 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1486 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1590 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1162 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1580 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1467 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1163 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1206 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 778 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1281 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1350 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1316 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1235 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1107 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1168 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1319 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1063 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1007 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1003 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1067 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1355 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1280 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1194 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1121 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1120 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 746 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1226 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1242 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1083 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1122 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1070 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1245 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1329 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1213 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1144 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1148 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1201 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1134 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1090 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1041 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1136 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1293 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1179 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 661 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1235 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1199 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1433 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1275 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1157 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 617 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1234 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1421 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1173 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1112 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1144 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1147 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1077 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1042 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 673 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 639 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1199 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1002 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 939 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1036 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1064 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1085 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1064 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 969 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 998 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 983 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1024 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1027 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1054 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1536 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1031 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 927 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 982 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1026 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 980 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 924 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 991 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1042 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 963 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1078 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1093 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1152 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1099 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1072 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 989 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1013 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 570 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 973 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1019 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 927 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1109 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1020 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1006 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 956 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1025 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 998 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1054 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 994 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 995 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 958 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1017 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1070 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1060 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1046 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1019 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1056 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1029 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1036 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1046 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1030 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1054 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1112 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1259 Views

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