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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! BlackAdder Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM
If you don't care what I think, then you shouldn't be debating with me! :P

:P

Considering the tower has ~1000 AS, and going by normal distribution, there will be 68% of AS within one standard deviation.

The normal distribution encompasses all women according to RJ, not just women in the Tower or women strong enough to be admitted in the Tower.

Yes, true, but I think if you take a subset from a bell curve, that subset will also have the characteristics of a bell curve.

Women like Sorilea and Morghase can never be Aes Sedai, but they must be considered in the bell curve. Meaning that in your range, we need values below 2000 to get any accurate values.

See what I just said about subsets. If that is wrong, then you are right.

Second, if the strongest possible woman has an effective strength of 25000 units (which is true, since RJ said that effectively, the strongest woman equals the strongest man), and the weakest 100 (or one or 20, take your pick), then the mean will be the median of these values.

That means, if we assume 3,000 units is the Tower mean,

I see no reason to assume such a ridiculous value for the mean. It violates the central feature of a normal distribution that the mean equals the median. And the median of the range 2000 to 25000 is most certainly not 3000!

Why not? The median is just the person in the middle, not necessarily the middle of the range. For example, in the following set of numbers:

5, 20, 500, 1000, 5,000

500 is the median. True, in a bell curve, mean=median=mode, so you could have a distribution like this:

10, 20, 30, 40, 40, 60, 80

mean = median = mode = 40

Note that the middle of the range between 10 and 80 is 45.

then 68% will be within one SD of that. The SD will be whatever strength level accounts for 34% of AS greater than the mean (or 34% less than the mean), going in sequential order of strength.

Again, you assume female channeler=Aes Sedai. You're also working from a very weird assumption for the value of the mean that is mathematically insupportable.

See above.
I frankly don't see why the standard deviation is being dragged into this at all. Whatever the standard deviation turns out to be for this range of 2k-25k, the median and the mean of the distribution will be 13500.

Not necessarily.
Let's just assume that that the standard deviation in the tower is 500 units.

I haven't done the calcualtions, but on what basis is this assumed? Further, why is this assumed at all? Sure, the standard deviation can help us define the range. But with the range already defined, this is a needless calculation for our pusposes.

I assumed Moiraine and old Siuan were equals, then Siuan was half her old strength (4K and 2K). It seemed a reasonable place to put them within the distribution, since Moiraine is one of the strongest AS. I don't know if 3K is the correct place to put an average AS, but it can make sense in a bell curve (i.e., the average channeler doesn't have to be in the middle of the range).

The distribution is based off the 68-95-99.7 rule (wiki it). In brief, 68% of the population of interest is within plus or minus one SD of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within 3.

quoteThat puts Moirane (4,000 units) in the top 2.5% of the Tower (25 strongest Aes Sedai) and the new Siuan (2,000 units) in the bottom 2.5 % of the Tower (25 weakest Aes Sedai).

Okay... I'm still waiting to see what all this says about channelers as a whole.

Each is 2 standard deviations from the mean of 3,000, which means the middle of the bell curve accounts for 95% of sisters, with Moiraine and Siuan on opposite ends of the curve.

Dude, you assumed the mean (erroneously), you assumed the standard deviations, you assumed the distance from the mean at which Moiraine and Siuan are placed and then strung these together to give me "proof" that Moiriane being less than a sixth as strong as Rand is supported by the bell curve. I could have done the same thing and "proved" that Moiraine is of strength 20, and Rand 25000!

Notice that the "Big Dogs" are well above that. You have to consider that there are very few "Big Dogs" compared to your run of the mill AS.

There should also be an equally tiny number of "small dogs" which you seem to have ignored completely.

Well yes, but so has RJ. OK, Morgase and a bunch of no-name novices/wilders we've never met, then.

I believe Sidious' scale was meant to be (or should be) some sort of exponential scale. There is no way that 2 average AS would be able to subdue Rand (in fact, they can't).

Well, no one is saying two average AS can subdue Rand. Show me where anyone assumed that and I'll concede the point. All we're saying is that by any twisting you do, the average female strength, which will be the strength of the largest number of women, will be half that of Rand's.

Sorry, I skimmed most of this thread, but I saw that people were using shielding as a way to measure strengh. For example, 3 people shielding Semi vs. 2 for egwene, etc. If that is not good for measuring strength (and I don't think it is the best way, really), then forget that point.
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha Sidious - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8688 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... Shannow - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1731 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1702 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... Shannow - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1508 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... fionwe1987 - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1619 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1186 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1640 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... Shannow - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1489 Views
Indeed, and not only that Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1184 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1228 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 788 Views
why? darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1313 Views
Re: why? Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1378 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1338 Views
and yet RJ does Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1259 Views
Re: and yet RJ does darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1135 Views
Re: and yet RJ does Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1192 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1343 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1089 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1030 Views
Meh... Sidious - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1037 Views
Re: Meh... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1094 Views
Re: Meh... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1381 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1312 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1236 Views
Let's work with your figures... Shannow - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1137 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1152 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 756 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1249 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. Logain - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1267 Views
the obvious answer darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1112 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1143 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve Logain - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1099 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1278 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. Logain - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1357 Views
I think all the main characters were forced Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1243 Views
agreed! darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1168 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1175 Views
What? Where? *NM* Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1223 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1156 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart darius_sedai - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1112 Views
Don't links amplify stength? BlackAdder - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1063 Views
The opposite, actually. Phelix - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1165 Views
Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength Logain - 17/12/2009 07:46:55 PM 1079 Views
Re: Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:55:38 PM 1265 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to Logain - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1314 Views
It means even Moghedien is vastly stronger than the average modern Aes Sedai... Shannow - 17/12/2009 05:48:09 PM 1288 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1210 Views
Agreed! *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 671 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1302 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... Shannow - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1227 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1449 Views
uhm.... yes she knows Oberonus - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1297 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1186 Views
yup *NM* darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 629 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1266 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1448 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1206 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1154 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1175 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1171 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? Logain - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1123 Views
agreed darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1073 Views
Elayne says Egwene was at her full strength in TSR, and thus was stronger than she currently was. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:25:31 PM 1050 Views
Elayne says Egwene was forced and was thus currently stronger darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:51:28 PM 1086 Views
Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section! RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 11:23:20 PM 1085 Views
Re: Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section! darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:25:31 PM 1096 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* Cannoli - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 685 Views
I'll check *NM* Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 647 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... Shannow - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1218 Views
No people just interpret things differently darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1026 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? fionwe1987 - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 964 Views
I think they are secretly just trying to make Lanfear appear that much stronger *NM* darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:17:38 PM 611 Views
You also forget something. Phelix - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1062 Views
Re: You also forget something. darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1089 Views
Re: You also forget something. Phelix - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1106 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1089 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 991 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 1020 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* Sidious - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 1008 Views
I cannot. That's the point... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1052 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1066 Views
Sorry, but no... fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1078 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... Shannow - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1565 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1053 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 948 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 1003 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1054 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 1012 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 952 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 1024 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1060 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 984 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1105 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1122 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1175 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1123 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... Shannow - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1091 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 1016 Views
Explain one thing to me... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1042 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 583 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. Shannow - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 1005 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1043 Views
Can you provide the quote? fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 947 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it darius_sedai - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1133 Views
which is also suspect darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1045 Views
No it's not Sidious - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1027 Views
we're in agreement darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 987 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1051 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 1027 Views
I don't think it's a lie BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1074 Views
Agreed Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 1014 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 1015 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 989 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1044 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1092 Views
I've discussed this before... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1086 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1070 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1041 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... Shannow - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1078 Views
Why are you entertaining this? Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1056 Views
The other poster showed no proof that RJ's math was wrong. Read what he said again! *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:09:49 PM 625 Views
Verin's circle matched Granedal dude. And average strength does not mean great strength. fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:07:51 PM 1063 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1060 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill Sidious - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1087 Views
of course it's about skill darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1060 Views
Not it isn't! Sidious - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1081 Views
If she was only thinking about strength why then didn't she have a plan to add Sheriam darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 07:09:08 PM 1007 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... everynametaken - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1136 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. Heiko - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1287 Views
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