One: There is a difference between convoluted and complex.

Two: Any and every theory about Graendal being alive I've read has come from the point of view of knowing how she was killed, and assuming that she clearly would too, whereas the whole point of the scene was that no one would ever assume he would do something like that.

Every time I read something about her being alive it has always seemed to come from the idea of not wanting to believe what is clearly stated in the books, because it was displeasing to the reader.

Now, Sidious, I understand that you actually think she's dead, and are just trying out theories that could explain people's wishes that things were different. The problem with this theory is that it supposes Graendal would know the exact manner and time of her death, and deal with it in a way that would make everyone believe she was dead, and have foreknowledge that this was going to happen enough to plan, and have everything instantly ready to go on the off chance that this was the moment that Rand chose to strike. It's too much. Especially for these Forsaken, who time and again have been shown to not live up to anyone's impressions of them.