Hi all,
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
Lanfear is the only woman we know of who has the highest attainable strength from the AOL. Were there others? We know that Ishamael equalled Lews Therin in power, therefore males of the highest strength are not unique, but we also know that no one could match Ishamael except Lews Therin, meaning that there really might only have been two men of that strength. We should also assume that other women existed with Lanfear's strength in the Power.
We know that the world in the AOL was similar to ours, so if we assume 7 billion people and 3% can channel, then there were 210 million channelers in the AOL. If Lanfear was unique then the chance of having her strength is 1 in 210 million, making her close to the 6th SD. If there were others, she would be closer to the 5th etc.
I personally think that there were between 2 and 100 women with her strength, not more, not less.
Wheel of Time board admin
Fan of Lanfear
Fan of Lanfear
How many standard deviations is Lanfear
15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM
- 2219 Views
Hmm...
15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
- 1350 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff
15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
- 1194 Views
18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
- 1060 Views


Re:
18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
- 1282 Views

Re:
19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
- 1109 Views

Re:
19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
- 1098 Views

They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM
- 1118 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM
- 1319 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM
- 1075 Views
Hmmm...
20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM
- 1151 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed
20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM
- 1097 Views
Nope...
20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM
- 1150 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic
20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM
- 1042 Views
Keep believing that...
20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM
- 1186 Views
*shrugs*
20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM
- 1132 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now?
20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM
- 1023 Views
No it's the literary device
20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM
- 1167 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean
19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM
- 1100 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution
19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM
- 1150 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it.
19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM
- 1112 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM*
20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM
- 700 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics.
20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM
- 1065 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless
16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM
- 1051 Views
I don't really agree
18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM
- 1025 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM
- 1070 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM
- 1044 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
- 1104 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM*
18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM
- 677 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved.
18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM
- 934 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created.
18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM
- 1070 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use...
18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM
- 951 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength?
18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM
- 1111 Views
Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM
- 1104 Views
Re: Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
- 1081 Views
You're right, though its 37.5%
19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM
- 1031 Views
Oops, typo!
19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM
- 1077 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean
19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM
- 1032 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM
- 960 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM
- 913 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM
- 1037 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM
- 1090 Views
Forkroot in every case
20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM
- 1035 Views
No!
20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM
- 1023 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this
20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM
- 1050 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused.
20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM
- 1010 Views
Not going to argue this with you.
20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM
- 967 Views
Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM
- 1083 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength
20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM
- 989 Views
Enough!
20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM
- 1045 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM*
20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM
- 666 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM
- 1086 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than
20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM
- 1090 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM
- 994 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM
- 1020 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM
- 1056 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence...
20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM
- 990 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more?
20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM
- 996 Views
Nope...
20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM
- 1019 Views
wrong
20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM
- 945 Views
Better evidence? LOL!
20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM
- 1035 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion?
20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM
- 1040 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene?
20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM
- 942 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene
20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM
- 1055 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures...
19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM
- 1068 Views
Indeed
19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM
- 1125 Views
Rand is sort of a special case
20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM
- 989 Views
Regarding Mesaana...
20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM
- 1026 Views
You continue to mix two things
20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM
- 949 Views
No
20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM
- 1184 Views
You are mistaken
20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM
- 1037 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means
19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM
- 988 Views
It's irrelevant
19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM
- 1058 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength.
19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM
- 1027 Views
Daigian
19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM
- 1035 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote
19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM
- 1052 Views
You missed my point
19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
- 978 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM
- 995 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM
- 985 Views
Re: Sure you can
19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM
- 1114 Views
Care to explain this...
19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM
- 941 Views
Indeed
20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM
- 1142 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo.
20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM
- 994 Views
Well duh.
20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM
- 1107 Views
Incorrect.
20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM
- 1091 Views
No
20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM
- 1078 Views
You're integrating without lower limits...
20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM
- 1051 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM
- 890 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM
- 1101 Views
You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM
- 969 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM
- 1024 Views
Morghase is a placeholder...
20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM
- 1105 Views
Well...
18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM
- 1100 Views
Re: Well...
19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM
- 1079 Views
Wow.
19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM
- 1103 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM
- 1010 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM
- 880 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM
- 1105 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM
- 1011 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery
20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM
- 1021 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable...
21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
- 1038 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
- 1085 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM
- 1409 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power
22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM
- 1171 Views