Hi all,
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
Lanfear is the only woman we know of who has the highest attainable strength from the AOL. Were there others? We know that Ishamael equalled Lews Therin in power, therefore males of the highest strength are not unique, but we also know that no one could match Ishamael except Lews Therin, meaning that there really might only have been two men of that strength. We should also assume that other women existed with Lanfear's strength in the Power.
We know that the world in the AOL was similar to ours, so if we assume 7 billion people and 3% can channel, then there were 210 million channelers in the AOL. If Lanfear was unique then the chance of having her strength is 1 in 210 million, making her close to the 6th SD. If there were others, she would be closer to the 5th etc.
I personally think that there were between 2 and 100 women with her strength, not more, not less.
I have two follow-up questions.
First, I've heard the 3% figure mentioned by several people. I'm assuming that's an RJ quote or something, but I have to admit I am curious where that number came from.
Second, with 7 billion people and 3% can channel that means 210,000,000 people who can channel. But, half would be female. So Lanfear would really only be about 1 in 105,000,000. Right?
Wouldn't that basically put Lanfear at 5.73 SD from the mean?
How many standard deviations is Lanfear
15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM
- 2325 Views
Hmm...
15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
- 1459 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff
15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
- 1297 Views
18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
- 1161 Views


Re:
18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
- 1382 Views

Re:
19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
- 1212 Views

Re:
19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
- 1202 Views

They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM
- 1222 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM
- 1424 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM
- 1178 Views
Hmmm...
20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM
- 1257 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed
20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM
- 1211 Views
Nope...
20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM
- 1269 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic
20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM
- 1147 Views
Keep believing that...
20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM
- 1293 Views
*shrugs*
20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM
- 1248 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now?
20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM
- 1136 Views
No it's the literary device
20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM
- 1271 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean
19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM
- 1203 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution
19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM
- 1267 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it.
19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM
- 1217 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM*
20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM
- 784 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics.
20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM
- 1167 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million?
21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM
- 1061 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless
16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM
- 1154 Views
I don't really agree
18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM
- 1127 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM
- 1170 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM
- 1148 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
- 1203 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM*
18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM
- 762 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved.
18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM
- 1040 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created.
18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM
- 1168 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use...
18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM
- 1058 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength?
18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM
- 1210 Views
Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM
- 1201 Views
Re: Sure you can
18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
- 1193 Views
You're right, though its 37.5%
19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM
- 1147 Views
Oops, typo!
19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM
- 1183 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean
19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM
- 1134 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM
- 1065 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM
- 1017 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM
- 1139 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM
- 1217 Views
Forkroot in every case
20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM
- 1137 Views
No!
20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM
- 1127 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this
20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM
- 1154 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused.
20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM
- 1126 Views
Not going to argue this with you.
20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM
- 1074 Views
Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM
- 1191 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength
20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM
- 1091 Views
Enough!
20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM
- 1150 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM*
20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM
- 749 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point...
20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM
- 1191 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than
20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM
- 1198 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM
- 1094 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM
- 1125 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM
- 1161 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence...
20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM
- 1096 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more?
20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM
- 1107 Views
Nope...
20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM
- 1130 Views
wrong
20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM
- 1054 Views
Better evidence? LOL!
20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM
- 1140 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion?
20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM
- 1145 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene?
20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM
- 1054 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene
20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM
- 1179 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures...
19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM
- 1178 Views
Indeed
19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM
- 1230 Views
Rand is sort of a special case
20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM
- 1096 Views
Regarding Mesaana...
20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM
- 1129 Views
You continue to mix two things
20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM
- 1055 Views
No
20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM
- 1296 Views
You are mistaken
20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM
- 1143 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means
19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM
- 1092 Views
It's irrelevant
19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM
- 1161 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength.
19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM
- 1132 Views
Daigian
19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM
- 1140 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote
19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM
- 1162 Views
You missed my point
19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
- 1083 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM
- 1111 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM
- 1086 Views
Re: Sure you can
19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM
- 1223 Views
Care to explain this...
19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM
- 1042 Views
Indeed
20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM
- 1246 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo.
20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM
- 1099 Views
Well duh.
20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM
- 1221 Views
Incorrect.
20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM
- 1200 Views
No
20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM
- 1187 Views
You're integrating without lower limits...
20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM
- 1153 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM
- 994 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM
- 1200 Views
You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM
- 1069 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math...
20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM
- 1128 Views
Morghase is a placeholder...
20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM
- 1210 Views
Well...
18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM
- 1197 Views
Re: Well...
19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM
- 1180 Views
Wow.
19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM
- 1205 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM
- 1118 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM
- 989 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM
- 1210 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM
- 1112 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery
20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM
- 1140 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable...
21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
- 1153 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
- 1192 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM
- 1522 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power
22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM
- 1270 Views