Hi all,
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:
4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787
5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278
6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346
Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):
1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean
1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean
1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.
I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.
Any insights are appreciated.
Thanks
Lanfear is the only woman we know of who has the highest attainable strength from the AOL. Were there others? We know that Ishamael equalled Lews Therin in power, therefore males of the highest strength are not unique, but we also know that no one could match Ishamael except Lews Therin, meaning that there really might only have been two men of that strength. We should also assume that other women existed with Lanfear's strength in the Power.
We know that the world in the AOL was similar to ours, so if we assume 7 billion people and 3% can channel, then there were 210 million channelers in the AOL. If Lanfear was unique then the chance of having her strength is 1 in 210 million, making her close to the 6th SD. If there were others, she would be closer to the 5th etc.
I personally think that there were between 2 and 100 women with her strength, not more, not less.
I have two follow-up questions.
First, I've heard the 3% figure mentioned by several people. I'm assuming that's an RJ quote or something, but I have to admit I am curious where that number came from.
Second, with 7 billion people and 3% can channel that means 210,000,000 people who can channel. But, half would be female. So Lanfear would really only be about 1 in 105,000,000. Right?
Wouldn't that basically put Lanfear at 5.73 SD from the mean?
How many standard deviations is Lanfear
- 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM
2470 Views
Hmm...
- 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
1567 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff
- 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
1417 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
1268 Views
- 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
1417 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
1268 Views
Re:
- 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
1483 Views
- 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
1483 Views
Re:
- 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
1326 Views
- 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
1326 Views
Re:
- 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
1320 Views
- 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
1320 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
- 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM
1348 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
- 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM
1539 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
- 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM
1309 Views
Hmmm...
- 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM
1355 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed
- 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM
1338 Views
Nope...
- 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM
1406 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic
- 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM
1249 Views
Keep believing that...
- 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM
1404 Views
*shrugs*
- 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM
1381 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now?
- 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM
1269 Views
No it's the literary device
- 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM
1381 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean
- 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM
1315 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution
- 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM
1391 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it.
- 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM
1357 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM*
- 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM
830 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics.
- 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM
1261 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million?
- 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM
1174 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless
- 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM
1261 Views
I don't really agree
- 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM
1241 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
- 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM
1267 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
- 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM
1255 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
- 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
1335 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM*
- 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM
811 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved.
- 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM
1129 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created.
- 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM
1306 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use...
- 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM
1185 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength?
- 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM
1326 Views
Sure you can
- 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM
1309 Views
Re: Sure you can
- 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
1315 Views
You're right, though its 37.5%
- 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM
1271 Views
Oops, typo!
- 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM
1310 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean
- 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM
1266 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM
1174 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM
1119 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
- 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM
1246 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
- 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM
1317 Views
Forkroot in every case
- 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM
1256 Views
No!
- 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM
1244 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this
- 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM
1252 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused.
- 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM
1253 Views
Not going to argue this with you.
- 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM
1160 Views
Your own example disproved your point...
- 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM
1309 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength
- 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM
1197 Views
Enough!
- 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM
1267 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM*
- 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM
803 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point...
- 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM
1281 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than
- 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM
1287 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM
1207 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM
1235 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM
1259 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence...
- 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM
1184 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more?
- 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM
1201 Views
Nope...
- 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM
1215 Views
wrong
- 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM
1182 Views
Better evidence? LOL!
- 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM
1247 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion?
- 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM
1243 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene?
- 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM
1145 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene
- 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM
1300 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures...
- 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM
1325 Views
Indeed
- 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM
1350 Views
Rand is sort of a special case
- 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM
1221 Views
Regarding Mesaana...
- 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM
1248 Views
You continue to mix two things
- 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM
1148 Views
No
- 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM
1415 Views
You are mistaken
- 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM
1223 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means
- 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM
1189 Views
It's irrelevant
- 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM
1283 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength.
- 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM
1237 Views
Daigian
- 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM
1240 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote
- 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM
1284 Views
You missed my point
- 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
1204 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
- 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM
1208 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
- 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM
1173 Views
Re: Sure you can
- 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM
1342 Views
Care to explain this...
- 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM
1142 Views
Indeed
- 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM
1350 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo.
- 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM
1215 Views
Well duh.
- 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM
1307 Views
Incorrect.
- 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM
1319 Views
No
- 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM
1286 Views
You're integrating without lower limits...
- 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM
1254 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
- 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM
1099 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
- 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM
1295 Views
You must tell me of this special math...
- 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM
1176 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math...
- 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM
1252 Views
Morghase is a placeholder...
- 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM
1329 Views
Well...
- 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM
1311 Views
Re: Well...
- 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM
1290 Views
Wow.
- 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM
1303 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
- 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM
1238 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
- 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM
1116 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
- 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM
1306 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
- 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM
1229 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery
- 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM
1268 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable...
- 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
1249 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
- 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
1328 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
- 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM
1605 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power
- 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM
1386 Views
