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Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... Tor Send a noteboard - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM
Assumption: Morgase is the weakest channeler possible. Since she is 1 out of 105 million that makes her 5.730 729 SD below the mean. See the standard deviation chart on wikipedia that I linked to in the original post.

Assumption: The bell curve is symmetrical and not skewed in one direction or the other. I know some of you disagree (but please humor me for a minute).

Since I don't like strengths less than 0 what I want to do is assign Morgase a strength equal to 1 unit of power. If I assign Morgase 1 unit of power do I have enough information to figure out the mean? In other words if 1 unit of power is equivalent to 5.730 729 SD below the mean can't I figure out the mean? If so, what is the mean?

If it is impossible to figure out the mean using Morgase equal to 1 unit of power and Morgase equal to 5.730 729 SD below the mean, then what other variables need to be known in the math equation


There are two parameters that make up a normal distribution, the mean and the standard deviation. If you assume that Morgase is strength 1, and that she is 5.7 standard deviations below the mean, then you could calculate the mean if you knew the standard deviation, or you could calculate the standard deviation if you knew the mean. If you know neither, then you're out of luck.

Technically, knowing Morgase's power and deviation from the mean gives you one equation with two unknowns, which you can't solve.

However, if you have two persons for whom you know the power, and where they fall in the distribution, then that would give you two equations with two unknowns, and you could solve to find both the standard deviation and the mean.

So, if you for example decided that Lanfear is at power 100, and 5.7 standard deviations above the mean, then the mean is 50.5 and the standard deviation 8.7.

However, there are some problems with this approach, as I see it. Firstly, I don't think we have enough information to say that Morgase is unique in her weakness. Secondly, I don't think there is any reason to assume that the distribution has symmetric endpoints. Rather, I think the case can be made for the opposite. If Lanfear is the top, and the bottom is essentially zero, then the mean would be at half the strength of Lanfear. I don't think that agrees with what we see in the books, which must be the ultimate test.

Finally, I don't actually see why knowing the mean and the standard distribution is really that interesting. Placing any given character on the scale is still going to be a matter of comparing quotes and building a hierarchy of people with known strengths, and it seems to be impossible to reach a consensus on even the most frequently described characters.

In my opinion, discussing the normal distribution isn't really helping, in particular since it seems to me that the distribution is mostly being used as a tool to sound scientific, with complete disregard for what the actual data, i.e., the descriptions of character's strength in the books, says.

For example, it has been suggested that if the mean is 50, and the standard deviation is 83, then every character will fall within one standard deviation from the mean. And while this is true, the consequence of this is that channelers of Lanfear's strength should be almost as common as channelers of average strength.

Personally, I think it would be interesting in itself to know the mean and the standard deviation, but I also think that the 20% of the 1000 novices clearly demonstrate that Jordan wasn't sufficiently consistent in the design of his world for it to be meaningful to discuss these things.

If I had the time and the inclination to work out the statistics, I would decide on some arbitrary scale for strength, like 0 to 100, then try to put a number to as many people as possible by a hierarchy of well documented comparisons, so other people could see what I had done and check my assumptions, and then I would draw the curve from those data and extract the mean and the standard deviation from that.
Fram kamerater!
This message last edited by Tor on 23/11/2012 at 03:04:07 PM
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How many standard deviations is Lanfear - 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM 2371 Views
Well... - 15/11/2012 07:02:45 PM 1385 Views
Hmm... - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM 1498 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff - 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM 1337 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM 1195 Views
We've always been close with everything except the scale - 18/11/2012 10:29:07 PM 1239 Views
Re: - 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM 1418 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM 1249 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM 1236 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM 1264 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM 1455 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM 1213 Views
Hmmm... - 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM 1291 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed - 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM 1266 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM 1313 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic - 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM 1180 Views
Keep believing that... - 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM 1323 Views
*shrugs* - 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM 1294 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now? - 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM 1185 Views
No it's the literary device - 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM 1303 Views
This is getting ridiculous... - 20/11/2012 04:43:13 PM 1184 Views
You are missing my point completely - 20/11/2012 04:50:46 PM 1133 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean - 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM 1240 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution - 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM 1319 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it. - 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM 1262 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM 799 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics. - 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM 1208 Views
Go read Fionwe's post about it *NM* - 20/11/2012 02:33:19 PM 802 Views
Is that before or after she started juicing? - 15/11/2012 11:04:14 PM 1239 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM 1094 Views
Are you sure that it is a normal distribution? - 16/11/2012 04:21:02 PM 1302 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless - 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM 1189 Views
I don't really agree - 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM 1161 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM 1210 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM 1183 Views
probably ... Lanfear/Cyndane is clearly remarkably skilled - 20/11/2012 02:35:09 PM 1216 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM 1244 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM* - 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM 776 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved. - 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM 1072 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created. - 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM 1213 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use... - 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM 1104 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength? - 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM 1249 Views
We have a limit for Daigian's strength, as you well know. - 18/11/2012 05:41:49 PM 1206 Views
Are you kidding me? - 18/11/2012 09:07:38 PM 1335 Views
Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM 1243 Views
Re: Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 1245 Views
You're right, though its 37.5% - 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM 1194 Views
Oops, typo! - 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM 1220 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean - 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM 1176 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM 1099 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM 1053 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM 1178 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM 1252 Views
Forkroot in every case - 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM 1180 Views
No! - 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM 1166 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this - 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM 1186 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused. - 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM 1175 Views
Not going to argue this with you. - 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM 1113 Views
Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM 1230 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength - 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM 1130 Views
Enough! - 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM 1189 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM 768 Views
What a brilliant argument! - 20/11/2012 05:25:18 PM 1199 Views
this is why I refuse to continue this debate - 20/11/2012 05:31:11 PM 1142 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM 1228 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM 1233 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:31:50 PM 1210 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:42:53 PM 1186 Views
Excuse me? - 20/11/2012 05:28:48 PM 1268 Views
see we can agree on the relative strength of Egwene v. Forsaken - 20/11/2012 05:35:07 PM 1209 Views
??? - 20/11/2012 05:37:01 PM 1295 Views
2 middling sisters - 20/11/2012 05:45:27 PM 1226 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM 1132 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM 1159 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM 1192 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence... - 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM 1122 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more? - 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM 1128 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM 1162 Views
wrong - 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM 1101 Views
My bad. Mized up 1/3 and 2/3. - 20/11/2012 05:05:05 PM 1197 Views
gotcha *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:46:21 PM 738 Views
Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM 1178 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion? - 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM 1177 Views
Exactly *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:55:28 PM 1124 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene? - 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM 1088 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene - 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM 1227 Views
Re: Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 05:00:47 PM 1095 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures... - 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM 1234 Views
Indeed - 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM 1268 Views
Rand is sort of a special case - 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM 1136 Views
Regarding Mesaana... - 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM 1167 Views
You continue to mix two things - 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM 1091 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM 1344 Views
You are mistaken - 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM 1174 Views
Yes she did Darius! - 20/11/2012 05:27:36 PM 1109 Views
Yet there is no duel - 20/11/2012 06:01:17 PM 1115 Views
Explain the .3xSD thing to me... - 19/11/2012 04:58:57 PM 1337 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means - 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM 1129 Views
It's irrelevant - 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM 1203 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength. - 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM 1170 Views
Daigian - 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM 1179 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote - 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM 1201 Views
You missed my point - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM 1124 Views
Re: You missed my point - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM 1225 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM 1152 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM 1121 Views
Which would make an average AS around a 30 - 20/11/2012 04:58:56 PM 1032 Views
Re: Sure you can - 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM 1263 Views
Care to explain this... - 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM 1070 Views
Indeed - 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM 1279 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo. - 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM 1143 Views
Well duh. - 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM 1246 Views
Incorrect. - 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM 1250 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM 1226 Views
Re: No - 20/11/2012 04:48:36 PM 1195 Views
That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:18:46 PM 1055 Views
Re: That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:31:03 PM 1628 Views
You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM 1186 Views
Re: You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 04:37:57 PM 1246 Views
It matters. - 20/11/2012 05:22:40 PM 1210 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM 1023 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM 1235 Views
You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM 1108 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM 1165 Views
Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM 1249 Views
Re: Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:49:54 PM 1539 Views
Why? - 20/11/2012 05:23:29 PM 1208 Views
Re: Why? - 20/11/2012 05:36:45 PM 1513 Views
Well... - 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM 1237 Views
Re: Well... - 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM 1223 Views
Wow. - 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM 1235 Views
Re: Wow. - 19/11/2012 04:26:09 PM 1267 Views
Some points - 19/11/2012 06:03:00 PM 1303 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM 1157 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM 1021 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM 1241 Views
Agreed - 20/11/2012 08:13:37 AM 1306 Views
probably - 20/11/2012 06:18:45 PM 1140 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM 1157 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery - 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM 1192 Views
Indeed... - 21/11/2012 05:44:18 PM 1133 Views
I agree - 22/11/2012 01:43:02 AM 1382 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM 1190 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM 1239 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM 1551 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power - 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM 1308 Views
Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM 1620 Views
Disregard this post *NM* - 23/11/2012 03:02:24 PM 1003 Views

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