Actually, the theory is largely based on Arthurian and Jesus parallels. It wouldn't be very convincing without that. I don't believe there are any clues that point toward a faked death with the exception of the Logain dream. In that, I believe that the paper puppet symbolizes that Rand's death isn't permanent.


Slayer only has a passing desire to kill Rand, apparently. He doesn't appear to have any real emotions on the subject. Fain is a Mordred red herring insofar as the Battle of Caemlyn is concerned; I think he will be more important in the events at Shayol Ghul. Everybody wants to kill Rand, but only one of them gets to do it. The fact that no one expects Gawyn is part of what makes this theory convincing.


A few things do. Mostly Arthurian legend, but also some good foreshadowing in the books.


If he believed that killing himself would do the trick, he could kill himself, but he has no reason to believe that. He just knows he has to die (and he's trying to avoid it).


Birgitte says that Heroes are not dead as others are dead. It's not just empty words, either - this important fact is the reason why Birgitte was able to interact with living people in Tel'aran'rhiod. Other dead people can't do that. Because Heroes are not dead as others are dead, Birgitte was ripped into the Pattern before her time.


Of course it does. That's why we all expected it. But the irony will be that she's outside the walls of the city when Gawyn kills Rand. He won't know that she's alive.


As I said on Dragonmount (you might not have seen it before the forum went wonky), I'm not ignoring it at all. It just will have a different significance than you seem to think. Alivia is important but only in a random way - Rand seems to think that he can plan something out with her, but he is wrong, just like he was wrong about the touch-merge viewing and the 'into the heart' prophecy (the latter of which is about Tuon and Justice). Logain is importantly only because, once Rand is dead, he'll be free of Rand's restrictions concerning Taim. The three women are important because they have to carry Rand's body to Tar Valon on a boat (probably to prove that he is dead).