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Hmm... Sidious Send a noteboard - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
Hi all,

My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:

4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787

5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278

6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346

Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):

1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean

1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean

1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.

I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.

Any insights are appreciated.

Thanks


Lanfear is the only woman we know of who has the highest attainable strength from the AOL. Were there others? We know that Ishamael equalled Lews Therin in power, therefore males of the highest strength are not unique, but we also know that no one could match Ishamael except Lews Therin, meaning that there really might only have been two men of that strength. We should also assume that other women existed with Lanfear's strength in the Power.

We know that the world in the AOL was similar to ours, so if we assume 7 billion people and 3% can channel, then there were 210 million channelers in the AOL. If Lanfear was unique then the chance of having her strength is 1 in 210 million, making her close to the 6th SD. If there were others, she would be closer to the 5th etc.

I personally think that there were between 2 and 100 women with her strength, not more, not less.
Wheel of Time board admin
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How many standard deviations is Lanfear - 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM 1978 Views
Well... - 15/11/2012 07:02:45 PM 1034 Views
Hmm... - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM 1121 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff - 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM 982 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM 888 Views
We've always been close with everything except the scale - 18/11/2012 10:29:07 PM 928 Views
Re: - 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM 1077 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM 923 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM 932 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM 907 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM 1139 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM 876 Views
Hmmm... - 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM 933 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed - 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM 903 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM 934 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic - 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM 847 Views
Keep believing that... - 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM 972 Views
*shrugs* - 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM 922 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now? - 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM 843 Views
No it's the literary device - 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM 956 Views
This is getting ridiculous... - 20/11/2012 04:43:13 PM 834 Views
You are missing my point completely - 20/11/2012 04:50:46 PM 800 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean - 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM 889 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution - 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM 945 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it. - 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM 902 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM 619 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics. - 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM 871 Views
Go read Fionwe's post about it *NM* - 20/11/2012 02:33:19 PM 631 Views
Is that before or after she started juicing? - 15/11/2012 11:04:14 PM 879 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM 736 Views
Are you sure that it is a normal distribution? - 16/11/2012 04:21:02 PM 970 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless - 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM 876 Views
I don't really agree - 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM 821 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM 884 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM 862 Views
probably ... Lanfear/Cyndane is clearly remarkably skilled - 20/11/2012 02:35:09 PM 882 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM 908 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM* - 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM 605 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved. - 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM 749 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created. - 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM 868 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use... - 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM 764 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength? - 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM 889 Views
We have a limit for Daigian's strength, as you well know. - 18/11/2012 05:41:49 PM 853 Views
Are you kidding me? - 18/11/2012 09:07:38 PM 1013 Views
Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM 919 Views
Re: Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 867 Views
You're right, though its 37.5% - 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM 835 Views
Oops, typo! - 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM 906 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean - 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM 833 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM 796 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM 732 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM 848 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM 861 Views
Forkroot in every case - 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM 844 Views
No! - 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM 837 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this - 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM 844 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused. - 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM 811 Views
Not going to argue this with you. - 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM 784 Views
Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM 863 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength - 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM 775 Views
Enough! - 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM 850 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM 589 Views
What a brilliant argument! - 20/11/2012 05:25:18 PM 882 Views
this is why I refuse to continue this debate - 20/11/2012 05:31:11 PM 821 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM 902 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM 900 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:31:50 PM 833 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:42:53 PM 834 Views
Excuse me? - 20/11/2012 05:28:48 PM 892 Views
see we can agree on the relative strength of Egwene v. Forsaken - 20/11/2012 05:35:07 PM 839 Views
??? - 20/11/2012 05:37:01 PM 929 Views
2 middling sisters - 20/11/2012 05:45:27 PM 867 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM 776 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM 830 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM 876 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence... - 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM 777 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more? - 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM 791 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM 831 Views
wrong - 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM 762 Views
My bad. Mized up 1/3 and 2/3. - 20/11/2012 05:05:05 PM 852 Views
gotcha *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:46:21 PM 548 Views
Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM 847 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion? - 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM 834 Views
Exactly *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:55:28 PM 797 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene? - 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM 742 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene - 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM 859 Views
Re: Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 05:00:47 PM 765 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures... - 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM 896 Views
Indeed - 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM 930 Views
Rand is sort of a special case - 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM 753 Views
Regarding Mesaana... - 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM 839 Views
You continue to mix two things - 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM 751 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM 980 Views
You are mistaken - 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM 826 Views
Yes she did Darius! - 20/11/2012 05:27:36 PM 773 Views
Yet there is no duel - 20/11/2012 06:01:17 PM 760 Views
Explain the .3xSD thing to me... - 19/11/2012 04:58:57 PM 1007 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means - 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM 797 Views
It's irrelevant - 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM 835 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength. - 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM 811 Views
Daigian - 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM 851 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote - 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM 856 Views
You missed my point - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM 810 Views
Re: You missed my point - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM 859 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM 816 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM 785 Views
Which would make an average AS around a 30 - 20/11/2012 04:58:56 PM 659 Views
Re: Sure you can - 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM 931 Views
Care to explain this... - 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM 787 Views
Indeed - 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM 1001 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo. - 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM 805 Views
Well duh. - 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM 919 Views
Incorrect. - 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM 907 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM 882 Views
Re: No - 20/11/2012 04:48:36 PM 867 Views
That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:18:46 PM 741 Views
Re: That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:31:03 PM 1159 Views
You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM 860 Views
Re: You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 04:37:57 PM 879 Views
It matters. - 20/11/2012 05:22:40 PM 860 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM 684 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM 874 Views
You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM 779 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM 815 Views
Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM 887 Views
Re: Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:49:54 PM 1072 Views
Why? - 20/11/2012 05:23:29 PM 857 Views
Re: Why? - 20/11/2012 05:36:45 PM 1029 Views
Well... - 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM 932 Views
Re: Well... - 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM 898 Views
Wow. - 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM 935 Views
Re: Wow. - 19/11/2012 04:26:09 PM 955 Views
Some points - 19/11/2012 06:03:00 PM 973 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM 791 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM 700 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM 888 Views
Agreed - 20/11/2012 08:13:37 AM 913 Views
probably - 20/11/2012 06:18:45 PM 811 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM 829 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery - 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM 845 Views
Indeed... - 21/11/2012 05:44:18 PM 802 Views
I agree - 22/11/2012 01:43:02 AM 1066 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM 829 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM 907 Views
Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM 1137 Views
Disregard this post *NM* - 23/11/2012 03:02:24 PM 805 Views

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