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Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? Lanfear Send a noteboard - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM
Hi all,

My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:

4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787

5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278

6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346

Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):

1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean

1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean

1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.

I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.

Any insights are appreciated.

Thanks


Lanfear is the only woman we know of who has the highest attainable strength from the AOL. Were there others? We know that Ishamael equalled Lews Therin in power, therefore males of the highest strength are not unique, but we also know that no one could match Ishamael except Lews Therin, meaning that there really might only have been two men of that strength. We should also assume that other women existed with Lanfear's strength in the Power.

We know that the world in the AOL was similar to ours, so if we assume 7 billion people and 3% can channel, then there were 210 million channelers in the AOL. If Lanfear was unique then the chance of having her strength is 1 in 210 million, making her close to the 6th SD. If there were others, she would be closer to the 5th etc.

I personally think that there were between 2 and 100 women with her strength, not more, not less.


I have two follow-up questions.

First, I've heard the 3% figure mentioned by several people. I'm assuming that's an RJ quote or something, but I have to admit I am curious where that number came from.

Second, with 7 billion people and 3% can channel that means 210,000,000 people who can channel. But, half would be female. So Lanfear would really only be about 1 in 105,000,000. Right?

Wouldn't that basically put Lanfear at 5.73 SD from the mean?

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How many standard deviations is Lanfear - 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM 2671 Views
Well... - 15/11/2012 07:02:45 PM 1663 Views
Hmm... - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM 1769 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff - 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM 1592 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM 1462 Views
We've always been close with everything except the scale - 18/11/2012 10:29:07 PM 1481 Views
Re: - 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM 1675 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM 1510 Views
Re: - 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM 1504 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM 1560 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM 1722 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% - 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM 1475 Views
Hmmm... - 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM 1533 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed - 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM 1523 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM 1592 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic - 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM 1436 Views
Keep believing that... - 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM 1591 Views
*shrugs* - 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM 1565 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now? - 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM 1462 Views
No it's the literary device - 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM 1572 Views
This is getting ridiculous... - 20/11/2012 04:43:13 PM 1439 Views
You are missing my point completely - 20/11/2012 04:50:46 PM 1352 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean - 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM 1512 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution - 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM 1584 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it. - 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM 1554 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM 926 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics. - 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM 1469 Views
Go read Fionwe's post about it *NM* - 20/11/2012 02:33:19 PM 947 Views
Is that before or after she started juicing? - 15/11/2012 11:04:14 PM 1511 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM 1387 Views
Are you sure that it is a normal distribution? - 16/11/2012 04:21:02 PM 1552 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless - 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM 1443 Views
I don't really agree - 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM 1426 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM 1454 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel - 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM 1448 Views
probably ... Lanfear/Cyndane is clearly remarkably skilled - 20/11/2012 02:35:09 PM 1486 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM 1537 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM* - 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM 911 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved. - 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM 1296 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created. - 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM 1468 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use... - 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM 1375 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength? - 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM 1518 Views
We have a limit for Daigian's strength, as you well know. - 18/11/2012 05:41:49 PM 1438 Views
Are you kidding me? - 18/11/2012 09:07:38 PM 1595 Views
Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM 1515 Views
Re: Sure you can - 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 1489 Views
You're right, though its 37.5% - 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM 1468 Views
Oops, typo! - 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM 1522 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean - 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM 1455 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM 1380 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM 1318 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM 1441 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined - 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM 1527 Views
Forkroot in every case - 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM 1433 Views
No! - 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM 1454 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this - 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM 1423 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused. - 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM 1446 Views
Not going to argue this with you. - 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM 1342 Views
Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM 1488 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength - 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM 1380 Views
Enough! - 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM 1461 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM 913 Views
What a brilliant argument! - 20/11/2012 05:25:18 PM 1450 Views
this is why I refuse to continue this debate - 20/11/2012 05:31:11 PM 1413 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point... - 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM 1458 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM 1488 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:31:50 PM 1467 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than - 20/11/2012 05:42:53 PM 1411 Views
Excuse me? - 20/11/2012 05:28:48 PM 1514 Views
see we can agree on the relative strength of Egwene v. Forsaken - 20/11/2012 05:35:07 PM 1464 Views
??? - 20/11/2012 05:37:01 PM 1544 Views
2 middling sisters - 20/11/2012 05:45:27 PM 1474 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM 1377 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM 1458 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... - 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM 1452 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence... - 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM 1366 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more? - 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM 1393 Views
Nope... - 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM 1395 Views
wrong - 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM 1359 Views
My bad. Mized up 1/3 and 2/3. - 20/11/2012 05:05:05 PM 1440 Views
gotcha *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:46:21 PM 877 Views
Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM 1437 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion? - 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM 1448 Views
Exactly *NM* - 20/11/2012 04:55:28 PM 1424 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene? - 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM 1333 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene - 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM 1490 Views
Re: Better evidence? LOL! - 20/11/2012 05:00:47 PM 1358 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures... - 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM 1517 Views
Indeed - 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM 1540 Views
Rand is sort of a special case - 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM 1432 Views
Regarding Mesaana... - 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM 1430 Views
You continue to mix two things - 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM 1349 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM 1585 Views
You are mistaken - 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM 1398 Views
Yes she did Darius! - 20/11/2012 05:27:36 PM 1363 Views
Yet there is no duel - 20/11/2012 06:01:17 PM 1361 Views
Explain the .3xSD thing to me... - 19/11/2012 04:58:57 PM 1635 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means - 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM 1419 Views
It's irrelevant - 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM 1471 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength. - 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM 1436 Views
Daigian - 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM 1431 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote - 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM 1479 Views
You missed my point - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM 1390 Views
Re: You missed my point - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM 1521 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM 1399 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS - 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM 1374 Views
Which would make an average AS around a 30 - 20/11/2012 04:58:56 PM 1283 Views
Re: Sure you can - 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM 1541 Views
Care to explain this... - 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM 1333 Views
Indeed - 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM 1539 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo. - 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM 1411 Views
Well duh. - 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM 1499 Views
Incorrect. - 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM 1491 Views
No - 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM 1470 Views
Re: No - 20/11/2012 04:48:36 PM 1452 Views
That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:18:46 PM 1314 Views
Re: That depends... - 20/11/2012 05:31:03 PM 1931 Views
You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM 1439 Views
Re: You're integrating without lower limits... - 20/11/2012 04:37:57 PM 1491 Views
It matters. - 20/11/2012 05:22:40 PM 1500 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM 1279 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case - 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM 1475 Views
You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM 1374 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math... - 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM 1435 Views
Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM 1523 Views
Re: Morghase is a placeholder... - 20/11/2012 04:49:54 PM 1779 Views
Why? - 20/11/2012 05:23:29 PM 1452 Views
Re: Why? - 20/11/2012 05:36:45 PM 1763 Views
Well... - 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM 1491 Views
Re: Well... - 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM 1476 Views
Wow. - 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM 1504 Views
Re: Wow. - 19/11/2012 04:26:09 PM 1525 Views
Some points - 19/11/2012 06:03:00 PM 1573 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM 1449 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid - 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM 1343 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM 1496 Views
Agreed - 20/11/2012 08:13:37 AM 1553 Views
probably - 20/11/2012 06:18:45 PM 1375 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power - 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM 1430 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery - 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM 1440 Views
Indeed... - 21/11/2012 05:44:18 PM 1368 Views
I agree - 22/11/2012 01:43:02 AM 1626 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM 1431 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM 1503 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really - 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM 1792 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power - 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM 1570 Views
Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM 1922 Views
Disregard this post *NM* - 23/11/2012 03:02:24 PM 1149 Views

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