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Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... Lanfear Send a noteboard - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
Hi all,

My question is how many standard deviations is Lanfear above the mean? Is she 4, 5, 6, or some other number? According to Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation, (see the chart in the middle of the page) we get the following probabilities:

4 SD = 99.993 666% or in other words, 1 / 15,787

5 SD = 99.999 942 6697% or in other words, 1 / 1,744,278

6 SD = 99.999 999 8027% or in other words, 1 / 506,797,346

Now, if you like round numbers then you might want to use the following (also taken from the same chart on Wikipedia):

1 out of 100,000 = 4.417 173 SD from the mean

1 out of 1,000,000 = 4.891 638 SD from the mean

1 out of 10,000,000 = 5.326 724 SD from the mean.

I don't know if it is possible for us to come to a consensus on where Lanfear is, that is, how many standard deviations is she above the mean. But if we know her level, by extrapolation we can also assign Morgase the exact opposite SD below the mean. Then we can assign Daigian and that should allow us to fill in everybody else.

Any insights are appreciated.

Thanks


Some of you (Tor and Shannow) appear to be math gurus. I don't understand how to calculate a missing variable.

I do know, however, that in math if you have one unknown variable then you can solve the equation and find the answer. So please help me with the following calculation and tell me if it is possible to find the answer. I believe that in order for the math equation to work we have to make a few basic assumptions (and I understand that some of you may disagree with those assumptions). Please humor me for a minute and just help me see if it is possible to find an answer using the assumptions I put forth below.

Please take the following facts as true (for the purpose of the calculation): WoT world is like our own. Thus, 7 billion people. 3% can channel. Therefore, 210 million channelers. Half are men, half are women. Therefore, at any given time there are roughly 105 million women channelers.

Assumption: Morgase is the weakest channeler possible. Since she is 1 out of 105 million that makes her 5.730 729 SD below the mean. See the standard deviation chart on wikipedia that I linked to in the original post.

Assumption: The bell curve is symmetrical and not skewed in one direction or the other. I know some of you disagree (but please humor me for a minute).

Since I don't like strengths less than 0 what I want to do is assign Morgase a strength equal to 1 unit of power. If I assign Morgase 1 unit of power do I have enough information to figure out the mean? In other words if 1 unit of power is equivalent to 5.730 729 SD below the mean can't I figure out the mean? If so, what is the mean?

If it is impossible to figure out the mean using Morgase equal to 1 unit of power and Morgase equal to 5.730 729 SD below the mean, then what other variables need to be known in the math equation?

Thanks for your help.
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How many standard deviations is Lanfear Lanfear - 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM 2670 Views
Well... vandevere - 15/11/2012 07:02:45 PM 1662 Views
Hmm... Sidious - 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM 1768 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff darius_sedai - 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM 1591 Views
Sidious - 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM 1462 Views
We've always been close with everything except the scale darius_sedai - 18/11/2012 10:29:07 PM 1481 Views
Re: DomA - 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM 1675 Views
Re: Sidious - 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM 1509 Views
Re: DomA - 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM 1504 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% Shannow - 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM 1559 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% DomA - 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM 1721 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5% darius_sedai - 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM 1473 Views
Hmmm... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM 1533 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM 1523 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM 1591 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM 1435 Views
Keep believing that... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM 1589 Views
*shrugs* darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM 1565 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now? fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM 1461 Views
No it's the literary device darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM 1572 Views
This is getting ridiculous... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 04:43:13 PM 1438 Views
You are missing my point completely darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:50:46 PM 1351 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean Shannow - 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM 1512 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution darius_sedai - 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM 1583 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it. Shannow - 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM 1554 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM* darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM 926 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics. Shannow - 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM 1468 Views
Go read Fionwe's post about it *NM* darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 02:33:19 PM 947 Views
Is that before or after she started juicing? Praziquantel - 15/11/2012 11:04:14 PM 1509 Views
Wouldn't it be 1 in 105 million? Lanfear - 21/11/2012 04:56:19 PM 1385 Views
Are you sure that it is a normal distribution? Dreadlord - 16/11/2012 04:21:02 PM 1551 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless beetnemesis - 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM 1443 Views
I don't really agree Sidious - 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM 1424 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel darius_sedai - 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM 1454 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel Sidious - 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM 1448 Views
probably ... Lanfear/Cyndane is clearly remarkably skilled darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 02:35:09 PM 1485 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply Shannow - 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM 1537 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM* darius_sedai - 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM 911 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved. Shannow - 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM 1296 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created. darius_sedai - 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM 1468 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use... Shannow - 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM 1375 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength? fionwe1987 - 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM 1518 Views
We have a limit for Daigian's strength, as you well know. Shannow - 18/11/2012 05:41:49 PM 1437 Views
Are you kidding me? fionwe1987 - 18/11/2012 09:07:38 PM 1595 Views
Sure you can darius_sedai - 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM 1515 Views
Re: Sure you can DomA - 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM 1489 Views
You're right, though its 37.5% fionwe1987 - 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM 1468 Views
Oops, typo! darius_sedai - 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM 1522 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean Shannow - 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM 1455 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... fionwe1987 - 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM 1378 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... Sidious - 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM 1318 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined darius_sedai - 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM 1440 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM 1526 Views
Forkroot in every case darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM 1433 Views
No! fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM 1454 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM 1423 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused. fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM 1445 Views
Not going to argue this with you. darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM 1342 Views
Your own example disproved your point... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM 1486 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM 1378 Views
Enough! fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM 1461 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM* darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM 913 Views
What a brilliant argument! fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:25:18 PM 1448 Views
this is why I refuse to continue this debate darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:31:11 PM 1412 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point... Sidious - 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM 1458 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM 1486 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than Sidious - 20/11/2012 05:31:50 PM 1465 Views
Re: Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:42:53 PM 1409 Views
Excuse me? fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:28:48 PM 1513 Views
see we can agree on the relative strength of Egwene v. Forsaken darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:35:07 PM 1464 Views
??? Sidious - 20/11/2012 05:37:01 PM 1544 Views
2 middling sisters darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:45:27 PM 1472 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM 1375 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... Sidious - 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM 1457 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys... darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM 1452 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM 1365 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more? darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM 1392 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM 1393 Views
wrong darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM 1358 Views
My bad. Mized up 1/3 and 2/3. fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:05:05 PM 1439 Views
gotcha *NM* darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:46:21 PM 877 Views
Better evidence? LOL! fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM 1436 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion? darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM 1448 Views
Exactly *NM* Sidious - 20/11/2012 04:55:28 PM 1424 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene? fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM 1332 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM 1489 Views
Re: Better evidence? LOL! Sidious - 20/11/2012 05:00:47 PM 1357 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures... Shannow - 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM 1517 Views
Indeed Sidious - 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM 1539 Views
Rand is sort of a special case darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM 1431 Views
Regarding Mesaana... Sidious - 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM 1429 Views
You continue to mix two things darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM 1349 Views
No Sidious - 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM 1585 Views
You are mistaken darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM 1398 Views
Yes she did Darius! Sidious - 20/11/2012 05:27:36 PM 1361 Views
Yet there is no duel darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 06:01:17 PM 1360 Views
Explain the .3xSD thing to me... fionwe1987 - 19/11/2012 04:58:57 PM 1635 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means darius_sedai - 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM 1418 Views
It's irrelevant DomA - 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM 1471 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength. Shannow - 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM 1434 Views
Daigian Sidious - 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM 1429 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote Shannow - 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM 1479 Views
You missed my point Sidious - 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM 1389 Views
Re: You missed my point DomA - 19/11/2012 02:18:33 PM 1520 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM 1399 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS Sidious - 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM 1374 Views
Which would make an average AS around a 30 darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:58:56 PM 1282 Views
Re: Sure you can Tor - 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM 1540 Views
Care to explain this... fionwe1987 - 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM 1332 Views
Indeed Tor - 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM 1538 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo. Shannow - 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM 1411 Views
Well duh. fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM 1499 Views
Incorrect. Shannow - 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM 1489 Views
No fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM 1470 Views
Re: No Tor - 20/11/2012 04:48:36 PM 1452 Views
That depends... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:18:46 PM 1313 Views
Re: That depends... Tor - 20/11/2012 05:31:03 PM 1929 Views
You're integrating without lower limits... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM 1438 Views
Re: You're integrating without lower limits... Tor - 20/11/2012 04:37:57 PM 1489 Views
It matters. fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:22:40 PM 1500 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM 1279 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case Tor - 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM 1473 Views
You must tell me of this special math... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM 1373 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math... Tor - 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM 1435 Views
Morghase is a placeholder... fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM 1522 Views
Re: Morghase is a placeholder... Tor - 20/11/2012 04:49:54 PM 1779 Views
Why? fionwe1987 - 20/11/2012 05:23:29 PM 1451 Views
Re: Why? Tor - 20/11/2012 05:36:45 PM 1763 Views
Well... Sidious - 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM 1491 Views
Re: Well... DomA - 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM 1476 Views
Wow. Shannow - 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM 1504 Views
Re: Wow. DomA - 19/11/2012 04:26:09 PM 1523 Views
Some points Sidious - 19/11/2012 06:03:00 PM 1571 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid Sidious - 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM 1447 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid DomA - 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM 1342 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM 1495 Views
Agreed Sidious - 20/11/2012 08:13:37 AM 1552 Views
probably darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 06:18:45 PM 1375 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power DomA - 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM 1429 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery darius_sedai - 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM 1439 Views
Indeed... DomA - 21/11/2012 05:44:18 PM 1367 Views
I agree darius_sedai - 22/11/2012 01:43:02 AM 1625 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... Lanfear - 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM 1431 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really darius_sedai - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM 1503 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really Lanfear - 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM 1791 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power darius_sedai - 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM 1568 Views
Re: Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable... Tor - 23/11/2012 02:59:12 PM 1921 Views
Disregard this post *NM* Tor - 23/11/2012 03:02:24 PM 1149 Views
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