the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
the Mean is where the highest number of individuals will fall statistically. The Units of Saidar an individual can wield is not what makes them "100" or "1" its the relative rarity of which that strength appears in nature. We do not have a single real number that maps an individuals actual strength in the power so we cannot do more than guess at this.
With that Said we can make the assumption that Lanfear is also 5.730729 SD from the Mean, but it doesn't tell us how much stronger she is than Morgase or the individual at the Mean. Or what number the Mean falls at on the scale.
Realistically Lanfear may be able to wield 1000 units of Saidar and Morgase 1 unit, but that tells us nothing of how many units the individual at the Mean can wield. RJ told us there is a Bell Curve distribution, but he gave us vague descriptions of actual power ... things like "considerably" or "very weak" but no indication of what that really means.
Personally I've placed the 21 level list as the Bell Curve, which would make the level 11 channelers at Mean with 10 SDs on each side (yes I know this isn't perfect). If you place all the FS at levels 20-21 and women of significant strength, from 16-19 you can then place Morgase at level 1 and the significantly weak channelers on levels 2-6 meaning AS all fall between 7-15 (levels 7 and 8 being Accepted). Which would square with the series quotes etc ... most AS will be Mean and below levels 9-11 or Daigian-Merilille (too weak to Travel) women AS consider strong falling at levels 12-15 or probably Verin-Moiraine in strength.
Another way to consider this is from RJs comments about levels
Forsaken Level ... Nynaeve, Sharina, the Forsaken
One Step Lower we have
"Exceptional"Level ... Egwene, Cadsuane, Bode, Nicola, Mielyn, Kerene
One step below that we have
"Very Strong" Level ... Moiraine, Siuan, Lelaine, Romanda, Elaida, Sheriam, Leane, and the other very strong Sisters like Kiruna, Bera and Galina I'd estimate that the weakest women at this range are likely Nesune, Katerine or Coiren.
Below that we have "Above average Sisters", women of influence in the Tower, but not at the very top rung ... likely Tarna or perhaps Masuri and Rafela at the top of this level, in the mid-range of that would be Verin, Seonid, Merana, Alana and someone like Merilille, Eldrith, Covarla etc.. at the lower range of the level
Middling sisters would encompass women like Adeleas and Vandene (who I would consider the MEAN level Channelers) This is where I believe the vast majority of the unnamed AS sit.
Weak Sisters would be women like Siuan and Leane are now, Cabriana, Kumira and, of course, Daigian.
Then there is the 37.5% of women who pretty much fall under the "negligible" category, I'd say there are actually many levels within this category ... New Moiraine, Alise, Sorilea, Morgase etc... perhaps Moiraine is 2x Alise who is in turn 3x Sorilea etc... but these are all Channelers of insignificant power. To do anything of real note they would need to have an angreal or lead a circle.
We can benchmark certain things at certain power levels such as Egwene level is about 2x Moiraine level, and that Moiraine level is about 3x Weak Sister level ... and we can assume that Weak Sister level is probably many times greater than even the highest level of "negligible" ... Daigian maybe 5x Sorilea who may be 15x Morgase ... but that doesn't really tell us a whole lot
Personally I think each level on the 21 level list comprises a smaller range of power (in terms of units) so Morgase level can wield 1 unit, but Sorilea's level may vary more and encompass women who can wield between 11-14 units, Alise level between 35-50 units, on the flip side level 21 may encompass women who can wield anywhere from 400-450 units, Level 20 would be women who can hold 365-400 units, that would allow for Graendal to be a 21 but still noticeably weaker than Lanfear, and Moghedien being at level 20 and still being much weaker than Lanfear, and also allows for Merana, Alana and Verin being on the same level and being unsure of which is stronger without an actual contest.
With that Said we can make the assumption that Lanfear is also 5.730729 SD from the Mean, but it doesn't tell us how much stronger she is than Morgase or the individual at the Mean. Or what number the Mean falls at on the scale.
Realistically Lanfear may be able to wield 1000 units of Saidar and Morgase 1 unit, but that tells us nothing of how many units the individual at the Mean can wield. RJ told us there is a Bell Curve distribution, but he gave us vague descriptions of actual power ... things like "considerably" or "very weak" but no indication of what that really means.
Personally I've placed the 21 level list as the Bell Curve, which would make the level 11 channelers at Mean with 10 SDs on each side (yes I know this isn't perfect). If you place all the FS at levels 20-21 and women of significant strength, from 16-19 you can then place Morgase at level 1 and the significantly weak channelers on levels 2-6 meaning AS all fall between 7-15 (levels 7 and 8 being Accepted). Which would square with the series quotes etc ... most AS will be Mean and below levels 9-11 or Daigian-Merilille (too weak to Travel) women AS consider strong falling at levels 12-15 or probably Verin-Moiraine in strength.
Another way to consider this is from RJs comments about levels
Forsaken Level ... Nynaeve, Sharina, the Forsaken
One Step Lower we have
"Exceptional"Level ... Egwene, Cadsuane, Bode, Nicola, Mielyn, Kerene
One step below that we have
"Very Strong" Level ... Moiraine, Siuan, Lelaine, Romanda, Elaida, Sheriam, Leane, and the other very strong Sisters like Kiruna, Bera and Galina I'd estimate that the weakest women at this range are likely Nesune, Katerine or Coiren.
Below that we have "Above average Sisters", women of influence in the Tower, but not at the very top rung ... likely Tarna or perhaps Masuri and Rafela at the top of this level, in the mid-range of that would be Verin, Seonid, Merana, Alana and someone like Merilille, Eldrith, Covarla etc.. at the lower range of the level
Middling sisters would encompass women like Adeleas and Vandene (who I would consider the MEAN level Channelers) This is where I believe the vast majority of the unnamed AS sit.
Weak Sisters would be women like Siuan and Leane are now, Cabriana, Kumira and, of course, Daigian.
Then there is the 37.5% of women who pretty much fall under the "negligible" category, I'd say there are actually many levels within this category ... New Moiraine, Alise, Sorilea, Morgase etc... perhaps Moiraine is 2x Alise who is in turn 3x Sorilea etc... but these are all Channelers of insignificant power. To do anything of real note they would need to have an angreal or lead a circle.
We can benchmark certain things at certain power levels such as Egwene level is about 2x Moiraine level, and that Moiraine level is about 3x Weak Sister level ... and we can assume that Weak Sister level is probably many times greater than even the highest level of "negligible" ... Daigian maybe 5x Sorilea who may be 15x Morgase ... but that doesn't really tell us a whole lot

Personally I think each level on the 21 level list comprises a smaller range of power (in terms of units) so Morgase level can wield 1 unit, but Sorilea's level may vary more and encompass women who can wield between 11-14 units, Alise level between 35-50 units, on the flip side level 21 may encompass women who can wield anywhere from 400-450 units, Level 20 would be women who can hold 365-400 units, that would allow for Graendal to be a 21 but still noticeably weaker than Lanfear, and Moghedien being at level 20 and still being much weaker than Lanfear, and also allows for Merana, Alana and Verin being on the same level and being unsure of which is stronger without an actual contest.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 22/11/2012 at 04:19:29 AM
How many standard deviations is Lanfear
- 15/11/2012 06:04:39 PM
2672 Views
Hmm...
- 15/11/2012 07:25:34 PM
1769 Views
see we CAN agree on stuff
- 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
1593 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
1463 Views
- 15/11/2012 07:56:12 PM
1593 Views
- 18/11/2012 08:37:22 PM
1463 Views
Re:
- 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
1676 Views
- 18/11/2012 11:07:17 PM
1676 Views
Re:
- 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
1511 Views
- 19/11/2012 05:16:00 AM
1511 Views
Re:
- 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
1504 Views
- 19/11/2012 03:13:01 PM
1504 Views
They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
- 19/11/2012 03:19:19 PM
1563 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
- 19/11/2012 04:01:43 PM
1725 Views
Re: They only reject 37.5%, not 62.5%
- 19/11/2012 09:04:04 PM
1476 Views
Hmmm...
- 20/11/2012 02:08:40 AM
1533 Views
Perhaps, but Egwene is also being a bit dramatic in the scene as she managed
- 20/11/2012 04:28:57 AM
1524 Views
Nope...
- 20/11/2012 03:13:13 PM
1592 Views
I believe she is being over dramatic
- 20/11/2012 03:26:24 PM
1437 Views
Keep believing that...
- 20/11/2012 03:30:14 PM
1591 Views
*shrugs*
- 20/11/2012 03:49:10 PM
1565 Views
Tired and forkroot are the same now?
- 20/11/2012 03:55:22 PM
1463 Views
No it's the literary device
- 20/11/2012 04:04:28 PM
1575 Views
Impossible. Daigian is exactly 0.32SD below the mean
- 19/11/2012 11:06:04 AM
1512 Views
You keep saying that, but it is either a linear or a non-linear distribution
- 19/11/2012 09:09:32 PM
1585 Views
That's the whole point. Thanks for finally seeing it.
- 19/11/2012 09:43:27 PM
1554 Views
keep believing that ... but you making up numbers isn't really relevant *NM*
- 20/11/2012 04:29:44 AM
927 Views
Please show me a number that is made up. The 0.32SD for Daigian is a rule of statistics.
- 20/11/2012 07:15:48 AM
1470 Views
Ugh. I hate power level discussions. For real world applications, it should be kind of meaningless
- 16/11/2012 10:28:49 PM
1444 Views
I don't really agree
- 18/11/2012 08:40:53 PM
1427 Views
Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
- 19/11/2012 09:13:48 PM
1455 Views
Re: Perhaps, but we've seen that a MUCH weaker Channeler can win in a duel
- 20/11/2012 08:10:01 AM
1449 Views
Since I've proven that it's not a normal distribution in units of absolute strength, SDs don't apply
- 17/11/2012 07:48:21 PM
1538 Views
You have proven nothing, except that you have an opinion *NM*
- 18/11/2012 02:21:35 AM
911 Views
You simply don't get it. It is mathematically a fact. There is no opinion involved.
- 18/11/2012 02:19:40 PM
1298 Views
Only because you've assigned numeric values. That you created.
- 18/11/2012 02:40:51 PM
1469 Views
It doesn't matter what figure you use...
- 18/11/2012 03:01:56 PM
1377 Views
What if Daigian is one third Lanfear's strength?
- 18/11/2012 04:37:58 PM
1519 Views
Sure you can
- 18/11/2012 10:09:31 PM
1519 Views
Re: Sure you can
- 18/11/2012 10:54:50 PM
1490 Views
You're right, though its 37.5%
- 19/11/2012 12:21:29 AM
1470 Views
Oops, typo!
- 19/11/2012 02:54:25 AM
1523 Views
Again, not possible, due to Daigian being just 0.3SD below the Mean
- 19/11/2012 08:37:01 AM
1456 Views
Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 19/11/2012 04:05:12 PM
1380 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 19/11/2012 05:55:02 PM
1323 Views
Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
- 19/11/2012 09:19:50 PM
1443 Views
Re: Egwene is about as strong as Melaine and Amys combined
- 20/11/2012 02:11:26 AM
1527 Views
Forkroot in every case
- 20/11/2012 04:32:26 AM
1434 Views
No!
- 20/11/2012 03:15:16 PM
1454 Views
I'm not going to go re-read the books to you on this
- 20/11/2012 03:39:46 PM
1423 Views
You need to read it for yourself, since you're completely confused.
- 20/11/2012 03:54:26 PM
1446 Views
Not going to argue this with you.
- 20/11/2012 04:09:44 PM
1344 Views
Your own example disproved your point...
- 20/11/2012 04:39:25 PM
1488 Views
let's see, she's both asleep and would need hours to regain her strength
- 20/11/2012 04:43:17 PM
1380 Views
Enough!
- 20/11/2012 05:04:06 PM
1462 Views
LOL ... whatever. You go on believing that ... no one else sees it this way. *NM*
- 20/11/2012 05:20:52 PM
914 Views
Re: Your own example disproved your point...
- 20/11/2012 05:10:15 PM
1459 Views
Barasine + Katerine isn't that much less than
- 20/11/2012 05:26:31 PM
1488 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 20/11/2012 02:26:47 AM
1377 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 20/11/2012 09:03:40 AM
1458 Views
Re: Egwene is definitely not 2x Amys...
- 20/11/2012 02:59:08 PM
1453 Views
None of this is backed by any evidence...
- 20/11/2012 03:24:12 PM
1367 Views
who said Cadsuane was 1.5x Moiraine or more?
- 20/11/2012 04:03:13 PM
1393 Views
Nope...
- 20/11/2012 04:41:35 PM
1395 Views
wrong
- 20/11/2012 04:48:50 PM
1361 Views
Better evidence? LOL!
- 20/11/2012 03:18:55 PM
1437 Views
Huh? How did you come to that conclusion?
- 20/11/2012 04:40:56 PM
1449 Views
BEcause Cadsuane is close on the heels of Egwene?
- 20/11/2012 05:10:50 PM
1333 Views
I'm not arguing that. I agree that Cadsuane is pretty close to Egwene
- 20/11/2012 05:50:34 PM
1491 Views
Interesting, but let's go with your figures...
- 19/11/2012 06:54:54 AM
1518 Views
Indeed
- 19/11/2012 08:16:44 AM
1540 Views
Rand is sort of a special case
- 20/11/2012 04:25:02 AM
1437 Views
Regarding Mesaana...
- 20/11/2012 08:42:56 AM
1433 Views
You continue to mix two things
- 20/11/2012 03:24:44 PM
1349 Views
No
- 20/11/2012 04:54:19 PM
1585 Views
You are mistaken
- 20/11/2012 05:04:40 PM
1399 Views
Probably, but the AS have no idea what 37.5% means
- 19/11/2012 02:59:26 AM
1419 Views
It's irrelevant
- 19/11/2012 03:46:42 AM
1472 Views
Agreed. Daigian is the marker of the absolute bottom of Aes Sedai strength.
- 19/11/2012 06:55:41 AM
1437 Views
Daigian
- 19/11/2012 08:12:19 AM
1432 Views
It is a direct marker due to RJ's quote
- 19/11/2012 08:50:26 AM
1479 Views
You missed my point
- 19/11/2012 09:08:42 AM
1391 Views
Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
- 20/11/2012 04:41:11 AM
1400 Views
Re: Asmodean would never have made the comment about 13 weakest AS
- 20/11/2012 09:07:49 AM
1374 Views
Re: Sure you can
- 19/11/2012 09:22:09 AM
1544 Views
Care to explain this...
- 19/11/2012 05:06:28 PM
1335 Views
Indeed
- 20/11/2012 07:16:37 AM
1541 Views
Explained far better than I ever could. Bravo.
- 20/11/2012 07:30:29 AM
1412 Views
Well duh.
- 20/11/2012 02:57:24 PM
1499 Views
Incorrect.
- 20/11/2012 04:28:07 PM
1491 Views
No
- 20/11/2012 04:44:16 PM
1472 Views
You're integrating without lower limits...
- 20/11/2012 02:55:06 PM
1440 Views
We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
- 20/11/2012 04:44:24 AM
1280 Views
Re: We are not talking about a normal distribution in any case
- 20/11/2012 07:02:47 AM
1475 Views
You must tell me of this special math...
- 20/11/2012 03:10:09 PM
1374 Views
Re: You must tell me of this special math...
- 20/11/2012 04:29:40 PM
1436 Views
Morghase is a placeholder...
- 20/11/2012 04:45:42 PM
1523 Views
Well...
- 18/11/2012 08:43:59 PM
1495 Views
Re: Well...
- 19/11/2012 03:40:44 PM
1477 Views
Wow.
- 19/11/2012 03:53:47 PM
1508 Views
Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
- 19/11/2012 06:09:36 PM
1449 Views
Re: Well then you're both wrong I'm afraid
- 19/11/2012 07:42:58 PM
1345 Views
this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
- 20/11/2012 04:51:20 AM
1499 Views
Re: this is why I think all of the Forsaken are very close in Power
- 20/11/2012 02:45:18 PM
1430 Views
I think RJ went out of his way to keep strength a bit of a mystery
- 20/11/2012 08:42:44 PM
1441 Views
Math gurus...Is it possible to find the missing variable...
- 21/11/2012 05:12:24 PM
1431 Views
the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
- 22/11/2012 02:55:03 AM
1505 Views
Re: the problem is that the Mean is not going to tell us much really
- 22/11/2012 03:15:33 AM
1795 Views
I do not think you can calculate the Mean without knowing the Units of Power
- 22/11/2012 03:53:59 AM
1570 Views
