The first suspicious thing about it is that it's from Ramsay and not Roose. Roose would never have let his son handle threats to the Night's Watch for its interference etc., which speaks for his present absence from Winterfell (his informers around Ramsay would know if he meant to send a raven to Jon Snow).

Another suspicious thing is that Ramsay is obviously unaware that Theon and Jeyne fled not to the Wall but to Stannis (which incidentally is probably why Ramsay didn't catch them.. his hunters were sent after them in the wrong direction). Ramsay omitted to reveal to Jon that the rescue was for nothing as his wife isn't the real Arya, so whatever effect the letter was expected to have on Jon, Ramsay intended to happen long before Theon and Jeyne reached the Wall. By and large, it seems to be a "you've failed in everything, I hate you and be sure you will pay" message, doubled with an attempt to frighten Jon into abandonning a "lost cause" and to appease the Boltons, sending Ramsay Stannis's kin and Melisandre. Most of all, the letter sounded like Ramsay is losing control.

Asha's POV showed that Stannis's camp isn't all that easy to find as it's buried in the snow. The party with Theon seems to have taken a long time to find it. It seems that Stannis is sending scouts ahead to blow horns much closer to Winterfell than he is (and probably in the wrong directions). It seems plausible Roose's sortie hasn't found Stannis' army yet. Three days riding from Winterfell (in good weather) makes a huge perimeter, especially in a storm and if the direction Roose thinks Stannis' army is is wrong.

It seems quite likely all hell broke loose at Winterfell in the botched rescue attempt, and obviously Ramsay has managed to capture some of Mance's party (including Mance himself? that remains to be seen) and torture the plot to rescue Jeyne, and othr details, out of them.

Another hint that Ramsay was raving and his letter isn't coolly calculated is that he seems to assume Theon would seek to go to Jon, or that Jon would actually not kill Theon on sight if he did. It would be a rational possibility if Jeyne was truly Arya Stark, but she is not. It's almost as if Ramsay has forgotten this, though.


If Stannis has really been defeated and killed, my guess is that we'll return to these events in the next book. For now, it's built terribly like the storyline that got Davos reported executed in AFFC.

Even by GRRM's standards, there seems to be too much set up behind this to resolve it this abruptly. Davos has gone to find Rickon. Manderly is infiltrated among Ramsay's people, and feeding Freys to Freys seems obviously just his first course (his revenge/plans sounded far more ambitious). Is Kastark really intending to betray Stannis, or did he manage to join Stannis's cause with Roose Bolton convinced he's on his side? Kastark was safely with Stannis three days from Winterfell for weeks, and seems in no hurry to send any messenger to tell Roose about this... Stannis could make the Kastarks the lords of Winterfell and the wardens of the north after the Starks, and the Kastark castellan a lord. With Theon's arrival to the camp, that should get clarified sooner than later.

The benefits of the "letter" seems obvious, however. It served its purpose at the Wall to bring about the plot to remove Jon, and reshuffled the deck. Selyse is isolated with her daughter - if they survive. If she thinks Stannis dead and Jon dead or dying, Melisandre will be forced to look with another perspective into her fires, as it seems she misread almost everything so far. She can almost certainly save Jon's life too with her magic (save or bring him back), if she wishes to. Tormund and fifty men are at Castle Black in the midst of the "coup", and there are thousands wildlings this side of the Wall now. Even if Jon survives (I'd be more worried about him if Martin had shown Ghost getting killed at his side, and made this all happen much further away from Melisandre's quarters), Martin just put a serious wrench in his plans and alliances.