Active Users:199 Time:17/05/2024 08:49:33 AM
You'll have to link that then, I always like to read things that feed my ego Isaac Send a noteboard - 24/02/2010 12:17:37 AM
Publicly proclaiming stupid nonsense and knowing it is the speciality of not just the current Iranian regime, but the large majority of the Arab regimes as well, as I'm sure I don't need to tell you.


I would say they are worse about it than most of their neighbors.

In Iran's case, you might want to consider the defensive (yes, defensive, not offensive) strategic considerations behind those statements - and behind the attempts to gain a nuclear warhead. Iran gains nothing by trying to attack Israel, and loses everything, and they know it very well.


I think some of them know it very well, but never forget how truly effective propaganda can be, say it long enough and you believe it. Large elements of their leadership really would like to exterminate Israel. I'm less worried about the current regime getting it then the current regime getting tossed out by even worse hardliners. Nukes are inherently defensive weapons, but only as long as everyone involved would rather live then kill their enemies or firmly believes that they will actually die if they try it. I prefer not to gamble much where fundamentalists who lean toward believing suicide is a good way to get into paradise go.

But threatening talk, besides keeping certain parts of the population happy, also serves to deter attacks on Iran - deterrence can work both ways. If Iran has a nuke that can hit Tel Aviv, that would be a serious deterrent against any attempt by the US or Israel to employ military means against Iran, for whatever reasons. They lose far more than they gain if they actually *employ* nuclear weapons, but to merely have them would gain them a significant advantage - or, looking at it from their point of view, restore some balance to the situation.


It really revolves more around power projection, assuming everyone involved remains very rational (which is a big assumption in this case) then you have Iran in a far more dominant position because they are effectively immune to invasion so long as they don't go too far. Having nukes means having a lot of muscle, especially when people take as a given you're aggressive. You don't invade nuclear powers, and they always know they have a decent bargaining chip if things go bad if they invade, interfere, etc. If Iran arms, others will too, other Arab nations will not feel safe having Israel and Iran on either side of them with nukes, insofar as they find both places seriously threatening to begin with. I don't think the world will come to an end if Iran get's the bomb, but I would prefer they didn't, and I really have few qualms with bombing them to stop it. I don't think we're there yet though.

And here you seem to misread Zakaria completely - your comment doesn't actually make any sense in reaction to that sentence, quite aside from whether or not one agrees with you.


You are actually quite correct, I totally misread that statement. Rereading it, I do not particular disagree with the statement though as I've mentioned, I think it would certainly be an extra motivation for them to do so, both out of fear of Iran and a feeling they would not have to risk anyone's wrath from the attempt, but yes, totally utterly misread that, thanks for pointing it out :(
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Why Iran's dictators can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:31:52 PM 733 Views
Not sure he showed us how they can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:56:42 PM 285 Views
Er yeah, that's totally the argument I was going for. - 23/02/2010 02:06:52 PM 325 Views
No Palin was simply cover for the "we just have to accept Iran will get the bomb argument" - 23/02/2010 02:26:45 PM 349 Views
She wasn't cover for anything, but I like how this argument keeps going that way. - 23/02/2010 02:36:47 PM 324 Views
As I have noted it isn't conseratives that keep bring her up - 23/02/2010 03:26:11 PM 275 Views
and I tried to take her out of the argument. But here we are. - 23/02/2010 03:39:29 PM 311 Views
dealing with the repercussions of attacking another Islamic country may be our best option - 23/02/2010 04:25:47 PM 405 Views
The world needs to decide how it feels about non-proliferation. - 23/02/2010 07:11:51 PM 253 Views
yes American used the bomb so now we should let everyone else take a turn *NM* - 24/02/2010 06:22:23 AM 178 Views
It would certainly demonstrate the folly of that view. - 24/02/2010 06:49:56 AM 298 Views
well hell then why not just sel them nukes and get it over with - 24/02/2010 02:33:00 PM 297 Views
I really don't think the folly need be demonstrated more than once. - 28/02/2010 02:49:30 AM 236 Views
No I never played Civ - 28/02/2010 06:02:38 PM 314 Views
It's a classic, you should. - 28/02/2010 06:19:21 PM 361 Views
Oh. - 23/02/2010 02:07:32 PM 261 Views
Sheesh! - 23/02/2010 02:11:34 PM 460 Views
- 23/02/2010 02:16:24 PM 464 Views
- 23/02/2010 02:41:40 PM 462 Views
I think this guy lives on the moon - 23/02/2010 02:51:20 PM 395 Views
Ehm. I disagree strongly with your opinion of Mr. Zakaria. - 23/02/2010 03:23:09 PM 388 Views
Views on him tend to be polar - 23/02/2010 04:06:04 PM 438 Views
I was just talking to Lupine about how I like your posts, but I'm gonna make an exception here. - 23/02/2010 09:28:44 PM 356 Views
You'll have to link that then, I always like to read things that feed my ego - 24/02/2010 12:17:37 AM 355 Views
Oh, it was on AIM. - 24/02/2010 01:13:07 PM 418 Views
Should've been on wotmania Skype chat. - 25/02/2010 12:47:42 PM 273 Views
Here's an article in response to Zakaria's article - 23/02/2010 03:19:41 PM 385 Views
I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 03:58:39 PM 278 Views
Re: I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 04:22:27 PM 290 Views
I don't believe they can be stopped - 23/02/2010 10:37:47 PM 284 Views
One thing he forgets... - 24/02/2010 12:19:12 AM 306 Views
Iran is a thorny problem - 24/02/2010 05:38:09 AM 315 Views
I still don't believe North Korea harmless. - 24/02/2010 06:59:15 AM 416 Views
I never used the term 'harmless' - 24/02/2010 10:01:14 PM 355 Views
Fair point, sorry. - 25/02/2010 12:45:47 PM 382 Views
No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 25/02/2010 05:19:10 PM 277 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 28/02/2010 02:30:26 AM 393 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 01/03/2010 03:53:58 PM 294 Views
A carrot without a stick is just a free carrot. - 02/03/2010 08:01:23 AM 406 Views
It's not a carrot/stick thing at all - 02/03/2010 04:29:00 PM 384 Views
Maybe I'm just out of the loop, but it doesn't seem that way. - 05/03/2010 01:02:57 AM 423 Views
They can hit Tokyo - 25/02/2010 06:10:44 PM 311 Views
So? - 25/02/2010 07:01:37 PM 457 Views
I think you are grossly overestimating our border security - 25/02/2010 08:03:13 PM 246 Views
Well, I KNOW you're ignorant about a lot of things and this shows it. - 25/02/2010 08:56:45 PM 292 Views
Yes you are the Great Cold War Warrior of the chairforce - 28/02/2010 06:44:31 PM 358 Views
Oh I'm sorry - so you're not so much ignorant as idiot. - 01/03/2010 03:48:32 PM 241 Views
Is that what taught you in chairforce school loser boy? - 01/03/2010 04:33:53 PM 338 Views
Nope, it was the internet actually - 02/03/2010 04:31:36 PM 269 Views
Israel does not have the military capability to destroy or significantly damage Iran's nuclear sites - 24/02/2010 12:33:00 PM 395 Views
I agree, even if for different reasons. - 24/02/2010 01:01:00 PM 248 Views
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about - and it shows to anyone who does - 24/02/2010 10:33:29 PM 349 Views
But... - 25/02/2010 12:44:15 AM 390 Views
Re: But... - 25/02/2010 05:52:07 PM 475 Views
Here's a few questions for you then. - 25/02/2010 02:55:00 AM 411 Views
You're not asking questions you're trying to support your point - 25/02/2010 06:49:28 PM 365 Views
I think this ties in well with this article - 25/02/2010 09:56:04 AM 307 Views
That's actually a really good idea - 25/02/2010 07:05:37 PM 244 Views

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