If you back the opposition they are 'tools of the west' (which they usually get accused of anyway, but now there would be real proof) and if you don't you leave a nuclear country in the hands of a gang of nutbars.
However, as has been pointed out, North Korea is a nuclear country in the hands of nutbars and isn't actually all that scary. A nuclear Iran would probably be similar - the only problem would be if they decided to launch a military action that they figured no one would counter because of their nukes. I can't see that as likely as if the military were that occupied the resistance might just stage a coup d'etats while they were off fighting.
The scariest thing is Ahmadinejad, who is a true loon, but I'm not sure his handlers would really let him near the button.
The second scariest thing is Israel. They have, in the past, been known to pull strikes in other countries that they feel have threatened them and Iran's nutjob president has done just that. Contrary to anyone's belief, the Israeli Air Force could deal very well with any launching sites and if Iran were to start handing off nukes to Hamas or Hezbollah, well, that would not end well for Iran.
It's a thorny question. A lot of the Iranian PEOPLE are pretty forward thinking - Shiite Islam has often been less backward than Sunni in a lot of ways - but their government is run by a nutjob with some very scary back room handlers who are both pretty proficient while still being pretty out of touch and also are well supported by a significant and armed portion of their own population.
Sanctions, as always, are largely a waste of time. They don't really much discomfit the senior people and give them a propaganda weapon to use against their enemies. A war isn't really the answer.
It is interesting to imagine just what Iran might say if, however, all their research and missile facilities were blown to bits mysteriously in a single night without anyone taking credit for it...
However, as has been pointed out, North Korea is a nuclear country in the hands of nutbars and isn't actually all that scary. A nuclear Iran would probably be similar - the only problem would be if they decided to launch a military action that they figured no one would counter because of their nukes. I can't see that as likely as if the military were that occupied the resistance might just stage a coup d'etats while they were off fighting.
The scariest thing is Ahmadinejad, who is a true loon, but I'm not sure his handlers would really let him near the button.
The second scariest thing is Israel. They have, in the past, been known to pull strikes in other countries that they feel have threatened them and Iran's nutjob president has done just that. Contrary to anyone's belief, the Israeli Air Force could deal very well with any launching sites and if Iran were to start handing off nukes to Hamas or Hezbollah, well, that would not end well for Iran.
It's a thorny question. A lot of the Iranian PEOPLE are pretty forward thinking - Shiite Islam has often been less backward than Sunni in a lot of ways - but their government is run by a nutjob with some very scary back room handlers who are both pretty proficient while still being pretty out of touch and also are well supported by a significant and armed portion of their own population.
Sanctions, as always, are largely a waste of time. They don't really much discomfit the senior people and give them a propaganda weapon to use against their enemies. A war isn't really the answer.
It is interesting to imagine just what Iran might say if, however, all their research and missile facilities were blown to bits mysteriously in a single night without anyone taking credit for it...
Something about the logic of "seismic readings from their nuke tests were smaller than expected" is less than reassuring. I don't believe Little Boy was the lower limit for a fission bomb, so lower readings from North Korea don't even necessarily mean a partial fizzle, but a partial fizzle is still a partial fission. Unlike Iran, they actually do have the means to strike the US, in some sensitive areas, and while it looks the most promising in the short term, I'm far from confident the AEGIS strategic defense can stop them. Anyway....
While launch sites are another matter (unless they build, like, underground silos or something, but when has anyone done that? you'd have to find their production facilities to take them out, even if they aren't buried so far underground that you can't destroy them if you do find them. I really don't see an alternative to boots on the ground to actually stop a nuclear weapons program, but in terms of Americas strategic and security interests, Iran is not a credible threat, whether or not they have nukes. And the bottom line is the rest of the world, especially the Mid-East, seems to see China and Russia selling nuclear tech and material to Iran as preferable to a US strike, so let them have it.
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Why Iran's dictators can be deterred
23/02/2010 01:31:52 PM
- 733 Views
Not sure he showed us how they can be deterred
23/02/2010 01:56:42 PM
- 285 Views
Er yeah, that's totally the argument I was going for.
23/02/2010 02:06:52 PM
- 325 Views
No Palin was simply cover for the "we just have to accept Iran will get the bomb argument"
23/02/2010 02:26:45 PM
- 349 Views
She wasn't cover for anything, but I like how this argument keeps going that way.
23/02/2010 02:36:47 PM
- 324 Views
As I have noted it isn't conseratives that keep bring her up
23/02/2010 03:26:11 PM
- 275 Views
and I tried to take her out of the argument. But here we are.
23/02/2010 03:39:29 PM
- 311 Views
dealing with the repercussions of attacking another Islamic country may be our best option
23/02/2010 04:25:47 PM
- 405 Views
The world needs to decide how it feels about non-proliferation.
23/02/2010 07:11:51 PM
- 253 Views
yes American used the bomb so now we should let everyone else take a turn *NM*
24/02/2010 06:22:23 AM
- 178 Views
It would certainly demonstrate the folly of that view.
24/02/2010 06:49:56 AM
- 298 Views
well hell then why not just sel them nukes and get it over with
24/02/2010 02:33:00 PM
- 297 Views
I really don't think the folly need be demonstrated more than once.
28/02/2010 02:49:30 AM
- 236 Views
I think this guy lives on the moon
23/02/2010 02:51:20 PM
- 395 Views
I was just talking to Lupine about how I like your posts, but I'm gonna make an exception here.
23/02/2010 09:28:44 PM
- 356 Views
You'll have to link that then, I always like to read things that feed my ego
24/02/2010 12:17:37 AM
- 354 Views
Oh, it was on AIM.
24/02/2010 01:13:07 PM
- 418 Views
Ah well, I'll have to self feed my ego instead, fortunately I'm very good at that
25/02/2010 03:44:43 PM
- 354 Views
Here's an article in response to Zakaria's article
23/02/2010 03:19:41 PM
- 385 Views
I generally don't care for Fareed, but believe he's right this time.
23/02/2010 05:59:00 PM
- 417 Views
Iran is a thorny problem
24/02/2010 05:38:09 AM
- 315 Views
I still don't believe North Korea harmless.
24/02/2010 06:59:15 AM
- 416 Views
I never used the term 'harmless'
24/02/2010 10:01:14 PM
- 355 Views
Fair point, sorry.
25/02/2010 12:45:47 PM
- 382 Views
No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position
25/02/2010 05:19:10 PM
- 277 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position
28/02/2010 02:30:26 AM
- 393 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position
01/03/2010 03:53:58 PM
- 294 Views
A carrot without a stick is just a free carrot.
02/03/2010 08:01:23 AM
- 406 Views
They can hit Tokyo
25/02/2010 06:10:44 PM
- 310 Views
So?
25/02/2010 07:01:37 PM
- 457 Views
I think you are grossly overestimating our border security
25/02/2010 08:03:13 PM
- 246 Views
Well, I KNOW you're ignorant about a lot of things and this shows it.
25/02/2010 08:56:45 PM
- 292 Views
Yes you are the Great Cold War Warrior of the chairforce
28/02/2010 06:44:31 PM
- 358 Views
Oh I'm sorry - so you're not so much ignorant as idiot.
01/03/2010 03:48:32 PM
- 241 Views
Israel does not have the military capability to destroy or significantly damage Iran's nuclear sites
24/02/2010 12:33:00 PM
- 395 Views
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about - and it shows to anyone who does
24/02/2010 10:33:29 PM
- 349 Views
I think this ties in well with this article
25/02/2010 09:56:04 AM
- 307 Views
It's going to happen regardless sooner or later; might as well get out in front and claim leadership
01/03/2010 06:29:57 AM
- 395 Views