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You're not asking questions you're trying to support your point SilverWarder Send a noteboard - 25/02/2010 06:49:28 PM
But I'll answer anyway.

Correct. However, my understanding was that only the 25 F-15I variants operated by Israel have the necessary range to reach eastern Iran and return without inflight refuelling (and only then through the use of droptanks). The other F-15s and F-16s would require such inflight refuelling, and Israel only has half a dozen or so refuelling aircraft, correct or not?


First of all - why would you need to fly all the way to EASTERN Iran? I strongly doubt that every strike target is on the far border of the country.

Israel is listed as having 8 dedicated refuelers which are Boeings - from the model they're essentially KC-135s. Each of those can do (at least) a squadron of planes and probably more. I was unable to find a specific listing but given that we used ours for refuelling B-52s which were gas hogs that's probably about right or even a low estimate.

That's enough for 96 planes. More than enough. Much more than enough (in fact probably more than Israel would ever fly at once - that's a LOT of aircraft in the air).

And that's without messing with drop tanks.


If this is so, the scale of an Israeli attack would be limited not by overall available aircraft numbers, but by support capability for those undertaking the attack.


Matters not. No one ever flies their entire air inventory anyway. (The Iranians won't be either).

You need planes on the ground re-arming. Planes for defense, planes in maintenance. Against 35 real planes flown by crap pilots and a bunch of glorified targets a couple of squadrons of F-15s would be enough and they could do far more than that easily.

Add in the fact that the Israeli aircraft would have to avoid hostile or denied airspace for the entire duration of the mission (they cannot overfly Iraqi, Saudi etc airspace), this causes immense logistical problems for any such attack.


LOL - do you honestly think the Israelis CARE? Of course they can overfly Iraqui airspace. Who's going to stop them? The Iraquis - they'd need an airforce first. Certainly not the Americans.

Did you even look at a map? Saudi is nowhere nearby. It would be either Jordan and Iraq or Syria and Iraq. Since the Israelis are pretty friendly to the Jordanians they might ask for permission (or might not and say 'sorry' later) or just overfly Syria which they do now whenever they want to anyway.

Basically, not an issue save politically and if they felt the need to splash Iran's nuclear dev sites they're not going to care much about that.


Correct, and if the comparison was the entire Israeli airforce versus the entire Iranian airforce, Iran would lose badly.

If we're talking 25 F-15Is versus 35 MiG-29s, the numbers turn out rather differently. Israel would win through (somewhat) superior technology and much greater combat experience, but the difference in capability is not as vast. This is where your knowledge if the other Israeli aircraft have the range to join the attack would be extremely useful.


It's not that different. Pilot quality means a lot and the F-15 is a better plane than the MiG.

Even so - here's what I would do.

I would ferry tank the F-15s somewhat - not completely - and arm them for stand-off and some ground bombardment. I would ferry tank some F-16s as well and arm them for mixed stand-off and dogfight.

Go out, drop tanks, destroy some ground radars, missles, planes on the ground to get the stuff I want to kill to come out and play, shoot it down stand-off and use the F-16s to bat clean-up. Fly back partway home and refuel for the return trip with another squadron hanging out to chase off anyone who tried to follow (an added bonus as that's more planes downed).

Honestly, it's not that hard.

Once you've fried most of their air defense, blow up the sites you want at will.

Of course, that's only if I wanted to kill the air force AND the sites. If I just wanted to kill the sites I'd just take in a few lone craft, penetrate, bomb the crap out of the sites I wanted and leave quickly. Refuel on the way home with some CAP up to catch any pursuers. That's how the Israelis usually work when they blast something in Syria they don't like.


In addition, any air-to-air hardware the Israelis mount to defend against Iranian aircraft is less air-to-ground missiles needed for the actual strike, correct? That means multiple sorties.


Maybe, depends on what they wanted to do. In the case of the former scenario, yeah, you'd plan for multiples. In the case of the latter, probably just one. Maybe another if you don't do enough damage but that can be done later.

Politically, Israel cannot confirm the existence of its nuclear capability, nor can it become the first country in 65 years to deploy nuclear weapons in offensive strikes without facing massive international condemnation. If Israel's existence is threatened, Israel will use nukes without a second thought, granted, but in a conventional missile attack by Iran, especially if limited in scope and if many of those missiles were shot down by Arrows, Israel would not be able to respond realistically with the nuclear option.


Naturally not. They'd just uncork the air force and punish Iran.

I would expect them to be quite successful.


By the USA's assessment, Iran has the most powerful armed forces in the Middle East after Israel with an active military force of half a million and another half million reservists, with a further several million militia (likely to be discountable in any major conflict, however).


That's nice, they can try and shoot down the planes with their pretty AKs. Israel isn't going to INVADE Iran, so their ground forces are basically irrelevant.

In addition, Iran's AA network has not been degraded or destroyed over the course of twelve years of airstrikes as Iraq's was. It is not very impressive, and I believe the Russians turned down Iran's attempts to update their AAs some years ago (to the same standard as the Serbian AAs that did shoot down an F-117A in 1999, although that was almost certainly a fault with the stealth bomber), but Iran's AA network does remain extant and a potential threat.


Even before anyone degraded Iraq's network of AAA and SAMs it was still fairly useless. I clearly recall the results of the first strikes against Iraq during the first Gulf War. Lots of pretty lights. Lots of blown up Iraqui stuff. Very little in the way of effective defense. They got what? One plane? A couple? It wasn't significant.

Do F-15Is and Israel's other combat aircraft possess the ability to carry out ground attacks whilst under attack from even Iran's inferior AA batteries in complete safety? If the answer is no, then Israel faces the problem of having to clear AA corridors to its targets beforehand, which is rather dubious without stealth capability, and again would require multiple sorties.


Okay - in any military action there is no such thing as 'complete safety'. Not ever. Planes break. People make mistakes. Bad guys get lucky. Nothing is certain once guns start shooting.

All those goofy folks trying to make 'certain' claims about military strikes look like fools by anyone who understands what warfare is about. You can have very high odds of success, but complete safety? Nothing like that is EVER a guarantee and anyone who tells you so is either delusional, lying or both.

Besides, you don't 'clear' corridors of AAA. Generally you fly around it except for the stuff around the target. That stuff you either risk or you take a WW weasel with you to fox or blow. If you're the Israelis you probably risk it - they're like that. The risk isn't particularly great though.

Keep in mind, the IDF is a lot happier taking chances than NATO forces. They have a different mindset and are much better supported by their public who is used to them having to act to keep missiles from hitting them.


Production facilities are vulnerable to attack, but since Iran's facilities have been put together with the help of outside contractors (most notably the Russians), those production facilities can also be put back together again fairly straightforwardly.


But while being put back together, they aren't operating. And once put back together, can be bombed again. Particularly if the air force and air defenses have been stomped flat. So no big deal.


However, I was under the impression that the biggest headache in the air strike scenario was the existence of unknown 'hardened' storage facilities (if not particularly hardened by our standards) in remote and possibly underground locations? Is this not a realistic problem then?


Storage facilities don't make things and no, you'll never find them or get them all no matter how good you are. Regardless, you need something to put in them and if the production facilities are gone, that's accomplished.

Given that Israel deployed 14 aircraft to target one Iraqi nuclear reactor by itself, it would appear that a significantly larger force would be required to attack numerous targets across Iran simultaneously.


Why would you feel the need for spontaneity? Iran only has 2-3 facilities and they could hit them all at once, but why bother? I might do it to make a point, but it's not a military necessity. Blown up tomorrow is fine. It doesn't need to be today.

But then if Iran ever did anything to overtly threaten Israel, then the USA and NATO would likely get involved anyway, making the whole discussion moot?


Maybe, maybe not. It hasn't always played out that way and the Israelis know it. They are very self reliant. Maybe others would step in, maybe not. Probably they would but the Israelis aren't going to gamble the lives of their populace on that.

The scenario I thought we were talking about is if Israel decided that Iran's nuclear ambitions are a threat and decided to attack tomorrow. If Iran starts dropping chemical weapon-tipped Shahab-3s on downtown Tel Aviv, no country in the world is going to deny Israel's right to retaliate massively.


Well, Israel decided to deal with Syria's nuclear ambitions and blew up a site in that country. Syria claimed it was an empty warehouse and nothing further was said or done.

So, if one day a bunch of Iran's nuke facilities got blown to bits and Israel said nothing, there would be all kinds of recriminations, but what's Iran going to do? Declare war? They can't invade (too many other countries in the way). They can't launch airstrikes as they'll just lose and Iraq and Jordan wouldn't like them overflying. Iraq couldn't stop them but the US might be happy to and Jordan might well. Syria might or might not allow it but the IAF would still down them.

And if they start lobbing Shababs, then Israel shoots them down and blows up a bunch more stuff. They'd treat it the same way they treat Gaza or South Lebanon. Endure it and make sure the payback is a bitch.

And if Iran were ever to go to anything non conventional then the rest of the world WOULD step in - on Israel's side.
May God stand between you and harm in all the empty places you must walk.

Old Egyptian Blessing
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