I still think North Korea is Chinas first strike option; build up their nuclear arsenal enough to hit us hard so that the response hits them instead of China. Not that I think that particularly wise given the proximity to China, but on the other hand North Korea occupies so little real estate we could probably turn the whole thing into glow in the dark glass without much fallout in China itself. I don't think North Korea's ever done or will ever do anything without Chinese approval, if not actual encouragement. Look how useful China's been in multilateral disarmament talks with North Korea (or Iraq, or Iran, or Pakistan, or anyone else; seriously, why does the rest of the world have anything to do with China?)

Um, when exactly do those tariffs and sanctions come into play? Tariffs in compliance with the WTO we convinced the world should include China; how does that work? Your view is the popular one, but the reality seems diametrically opposed. I think just about all of the original Maoists are gone, but their heirs are firmly entrenched. Read up on the response to Tienanmen Square; it was a god send for hard liners, whose influence shot through the roof. It's less about economic reforms than about acknowledging the glorious peoples revolution was a sham, and in that it is following the "Soviet" model of "communism" but that only means the same corrupt authoritarianism that's been the order of the day in both countries for a thousand years or more.

Tariffs, human rights "insistences, " compromise; bah! Where's the beef, man? All I see is that Chinas production, consumer spending, hard currency, military and technology continue growing at a rapid rate while the West waggles our finger at them but DOES nothing. Why should they reform? Right now they have all the benefits of a free democracy (as they see them) without any of the inconvenient annoyances like free elections and human rights. They can have their cake and eat it, too, and what's more, their strategic, economic and diplomatic position grows continually stronger while that of their principle Western antagonist deteriorates. They've openly stated displacing America as the dominant global power is their goal, and I think most people severely underestimate the effects state media and a closed China have had on the publics nationalism. If you think it was a waste of time for the US to try "liberating" or "democratizing" Iraq that's nothing compared to China, where the capture of our Navy spy plane in international airspace was hailed as a great victory for the ever victorious Peoples Liberation Army against an unprovoked assault by the Evil Empire.

The BEST case scenario is one just like the "former" Soviet Union, where a senior hardliner seizes control in the wake of a breakdown of party apparatus and continues business as usual except with more corruption and repression, and for his own sake rather than some vaguely defined partys. We won't "win the hearts and minds" of the Chinese public, because we can't make our case to them, and even if we could they wouldn't buy it. I still believe the nature of Russian and Chinese history make the case for democracy particularly hard to make because autocracy has been the uninterrupted status quo so long, even successful "reforms" provided no more than variations on that theme so many times, that it's almost a part of their DNA. It's almost like Mandarin has 6000 pictograms but no concept of "freedom. "

Maybe I'm wrong. I honestly hope so, because if not, and we continue on the same course we have since about the time I was born, we are well and truly screwed.