I don't see the progress. Granted I'm largely going by the Wikipedia article on the subject, but the aftermath of the Tienanmen Square protests seems to have been a great deal MORE repression, with the promptest and most energetic totalitarians catapulted into leadership positions while the few reformers were disgraced, seen as enabling the rabble who shamefully provoked the Peoples Army into regretfully busting heads. China seems a lot less rather than more open now than when I was a kid, and from their alliances with Russia and Mongolia to their seizure of a USN plane in international airspace, a lot more belligerent. That seems as well to be reflected in the general populace, who are perfectly happy to accept American industry, goods and wealth but view even the POTENTIAL for any Western culture as evil American imperialism against the Peoples Republic.

We don't (necessarily) have to start WWIII with them, but we can at least stop subsidizing a government that's openly stated its intent to compete with and defeat us economically, politically and strategically. Again, given that stated intent, in the face of them playing nuclear arms dealer to the world (and I still say North Korea doesn't wipe its nose without Beijings permission, never has, never will) and committing clear acts of war against US military craft and crews, why haven't THEY already started a shooting war? Could it just possibly be because it's more advantageous for them to fight that war later rather than sooner? Hitler was satisfied to gain his demands diplomatically so long as the Allies were willing to grant them, but just as satisfied to go to war when they no longer would; in the interim his ability to wage that war grew dramatically, because his inevitable opponents aided and abetted him.

What's changed in China? They won't kill the goose that laid the golden egg in Hong Kong, but otherwise they only changes I see are the growth of wealth, industry and technology at the expense of arable land when food is already at a premium. The country is no more open, the government no more engaged, the diplomats no more reasonable, the military no less bellicose and the public no less nationalistic. Put it this way: I'd be more inclined to give them the benefit of a doubt if they weren't building new models of nuclear subs and talking about aircraft carriers. As my mother likes to say, "If nothing's changed, nothing's changed. "

And the core point I neglected to make explicit is this: US policy since Nixon came to them has allowed China to have its cake and eat it, too; it has all the benefits of Western democracy thanks to us serving them up on a silver platter, with none of the annoying inconveniences like free elections and demonstrations or the inability to send people to decades of prison labor for preaching the gospel. Why SHOULD they change? Where's the incentive? All the things we promise will be there's if they democratize are already theirs because we deliver them at our own expense.