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I still don't believe North Korea harmless. Joel Send a noteboard - 24/02/2010 06:59:15 AM
If you back the opposition they are 'tools of the west' (which they usually get accused of anyway, but now there would be real proof) and if you don't you leave a nuclear country in the hands of a gang of nutbars.

However, as has been pointed out, North Korea is a nuclear country in the hands of nutbars and isn't actually all that scary. A nuclear Iran would probably be similar - the only problem would be if they decided to launch a military action that they figured no one would counter because of their nukes. I can't see that as likely as if the military were that occupied the resistance might just stage a coup d'etats while they were off fighting.

The scariest thing is Ahmadinejad, who is a true loon, but I'm not sure his handlers would really let him near the button.

The second scariest thing is Israel. They have, in the past, been known to pull strikes in other countries that they feel have threatened them and Iran's nutjob president has done just that. Contrary to anyone's belief, the Israeli Air Force could deal very well with any launching sites and if Iran were to start handing off nukes to Hamas or Hezbollah, well, that would not end well for Iran.

It's a thorny question. A lot of the Iranian PEOPLE are pretty forward thinking - Shiite Islam has often been less backward than Sunni in a lot of ways - but their government is run by a nutjob with some very scary back room handlers who are both pretty proficient while still being pretty out of touch and also are well supported by a significant and armed portion of their own population.

Sanctions, as always, are largely a waste of time. They don't really much discomfit the senior people and give them a propaganda weapon to use against their enemies. A war isn't really the answer.

It is interesting to imagine just what Iran might say if, however, all their research and missile facilities were blown to bits mysteriously in a single night without anyone taking credit for it...

Something about the logic of "seismic readings from their nuke tests were smaller than expected" is less than reassuring. I don't believe Little Boy was the lower limit for a fission bomb, so lower readings from North Korea don't even necessarily mean a partial fizzle, but a partial fizzle is still a partial fission. Unlike Iran, they actually do have the means to strike the US, in some sensitive areas, and while it looks the most promising in the short term, I'm far from confident the AEGIS strategic defense can stop them. Anyway....

While launch sites are another matter (unless they build, like, underground silos or something, but when has anyone done that? ;) you'd have to find their production facilities to take them out, even if they aren't buried so far underground that you can't destroy them if you do find them. I really don't see an alternative to boots on the ground to actually stop a nuclear weapons program, but in terms of Americas strategic and security interests, Iran is not a credible threat, whether or not they have nukes. And the bottom line is the rest of the world, especially the Mid-East, seems to see China and Russia selling nuclear tech and material to Iran as preferable to a US strike, so let them have it.
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Why Iran's dictators can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:31:52 PM 734 Views
Not sure he showed us how they can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:56:42 PM 286 Views
Er yeah, that's totally the argument I was going for. - 23/02/2010 02:06:52 PM 329 Views
No Palin was simply cover for the "we just have to accept Iran will get the bomb argument" - 23/02/2010 02:26:45 PM 353 Views
She wasn't cover for anything, but I like how this argument keeps going that way. - 23/02/2010 02:36:47 PM 326 Views
As I have noted it isn't conseratives that keep bring her up - 23/02/2010 03:26:11 PM 276 Views
and I tried to take her out of the argument. But here we are. - 23/02/2010 03:39:29 PM 314 Views
dealing with the repercussions of attacking another Islamic country may be our best option - 23/02/2010 04:25:47 PM 409 Views
The world needs to decide how it feels about non-proliferation. - 23/02/2010 07:11:51 PM 255 Views
yes American used the bomb so now we should let everyone else take a turn *NM* - 24/02/2010 06:22:23 AM 182 Views
It would certainly demonstrate the folly of that view. - 24/02/2010 06:49:56 AM 300 Views
well hell then why not just sel them nukes and get it over with - 24/02/2010 02:33:00 PM 299 Views
I really don't think the folly need be demonstrated more than once. - 28/02/2010 02:49:30 AM 237 Views
No I never played Civ - 28/02/2010 06:02:38 PM 317 Views
It's a classic, you should. - 28/02/2010 06:19:21 PM 364 Views
Oh. - 23/02/2010 02:07:32 PM 263 Views
Sheesh! - 23/02/2010 02:11:34 PM 461 Views
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I think this guy lives on the moon - 23/02/2010 02:51:20 PM 397 Views
Ehm. I disagree strongly with your opinion of Mr. Zakaria. - 23/02/2010 03:23:09 PM 391 Views
Views on him tend to be polar - 23/02/2010 04:06:04 PM 440 Views
I was just talking to Lupine about how I like your posts, but I'm gonna make an exception here. - 23/02/2010 09:28:44 PM 358 Views
You'll have to link that then, I always like to read things that feed my ego - 24/02/2010 12:17:37 AM 356 Views
Oh, it was on AIM. - 24/02/2010 01:13:07 PM 420 Views
Should've been on wotmania Skype chat. - 25/02/2010 12:47:42 PM 274 Views
Here's an article in response to Zakaria's article - 23/02/2010 03:19:41 PM 389 Views
I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 03:58:39 PM 281 Views
Re: I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 04:22:27 PM 292 Views
I don't believe they can be stopped - 23/02/2010 10:37:47 PM 286 Views
One thing he forgets... - 24/02/2010 12:19:12 AM 309 Views
Iran is a thorny problem - 24/02/2010 05:38:09 AM 318 Views
I still don't believe North Korea harmless. - 24/02/2010 06:59:15 AM 418 Views
I never used the term 'harmless' - 24/02/2010 10:01:14 PM 359 Views
Fair point, sorry. - 25/02/2010 12:45:47 PM 384 Views
No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 25/02/2010 05:19:10 PM 279 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 28/02/2010 02:30:26 AM 397 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 01/03/2010 03:53:58 PM 296 Views
A carrot without a stick is just a free carrot. - 02/03/2010 08:01:23 AM 411 Views
It's not a carrot/stick thing at all - 02/03/2010 04:29:00 PM 389 Views
Maybe I'm just out of the loop, but it doesn't seem that way. - 05/03/2010 01:02:57 AM 427 Views
They can hit Tokyo - 25/02/2010 06:10:44 PM 313 Views
So? - 25/02/2010 07:01:37 PM 460 Views
I think you are grossly overestimating our border security - 25/02/2010 08:03:13 PM 248 Views
Well, I KNOW you're ignorant about a lot of things and this shows it. - 25/02/2010 08:56:45 PM 296 Views
Yes you are the Great Cold War Warrior of the chairforce - 28/02/2010 06:44:31 PM 360 Views
Oh I'm sorry - so you're not so much ignorant as idiot. - 01/03/2010 03:48:32 PM 244 Views
Is that what taught you in chairforce school loser boy? - 01/03/2010 04:33:53 PM 340 Views
Nope, it was the internet actually - 02/03/2010 04:31:36 PM 272 Views
Israel does not have the military capability to destroy or significantly damage Iran's nuclear sites - 24/02/2010 12:33:00 PM 400 Views
I agree, even if for different reasons. - 24/02/2010 01:01:00 PM 251 Views
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about - and it shows to anyone who does - 24/02/2010 10:33:29 PM 351 Views
But... - 25/02/2010 12:44:15 AM 393 Views
Re: But... - 25/02/2010 05:52:07 PM 480 Views
Here's a few questions for you then. - 25/02/2010 02:55:00 AM 415 Views
You're not asking questions you're trying to support your point - 25/02/2010 06:49:28 PM 369 Views
I think this ties in well with this article - 25/02/2010 09:56:04 AM 308 Views
That's actually a really good idea - 25/02/2010 07:05:37 PM 246 Views

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