Everyone today is below average. Because channelers are weaker today.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
The defining property of a bell curve is that it shows the probability of finding a given value, as a function of the value, and that this probability distribution is shaped like a bell (hence the name), with the highest probability found at the average value.
I get that channelers are weaker in the Third Age, and are mostly found in the bottom half when using the same scale as during the Age of Legends. So while you can certainly use the same scale to discuss the strength of channelers in the Third Age and in the Age of Legends, it makes no sense to talk about the same bell curve, because the distribution of strengths are not the same.
We're saying exactly the same thing.
That a different distribution applied to the Age of Legends population as opposed to the Third Age population.
And I'm saying that the only way that RJ's "Bell Curve" description of channeler distribution can fit the facts as presented in the books, is if the Bell Curve he was referring to is the Age of Legends distribution, not the Third Age distribution.
Because, (to use the simplest possible example), on a Bell Curve the strongest possible channeler will be exactly twice the strength of the average channeler, and we know that it takes about 3 channelers of Moiraine's strength to match a Lanfear level channeler, therefore Moiraine cannot be higher than about 30 on the strength scale.
Hence the average strength channeler at 50 is almost twice as strong as Moiraine.
Clearly, therefore, all Aes Sedai weaker than Moiraine (which equates to about 99% of them) must fall under the lower part of the curve.
You cannot get away from that simple argument.
Hence the Bell Curve cannot apply to the modern day distribution of known channelers.
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
- 2895 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
- 742 Views
Androl did. *NM*
25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
- 999 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
- 1237 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
- 1173 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
- 1385 Views
Travelling
25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
- 1234 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
- 1252 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
- 1147 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
- 1088 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
- 966 Views
How strong Pevara is...
25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
- 1316 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
- 1032 Views
Agreed
25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
- 1120 Views
That was disproved long ago...
26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
- 1107 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
- 1151 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
- 1102 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
- 1016 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
- 1070 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
- 1071 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
- 994 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
- 1102 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
- 1086 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
- 1109 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
- 1190 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
- 954 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
- 1043 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
- 1058 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
- 965 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
- 975 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
- 982 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
- 933 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
- 1151 Views
So what's your conclusion?
29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
- 931 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
- 1040 Views
Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
- 915 Views
Re: Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
- 1040 Views
You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
- 915 Views
Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
- 968 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
- 911 Views
Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
- 1063 Views
Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
- 1058 Views
He drew graphs!
30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
- 940 Views

Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
- 990 Views
Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
- 1002 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
- 969 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
- 968 Views
Huh?
29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
- 976 Views
Re: Huh?
29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
- 943 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
- 955 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
- 985 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
- 1005 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
- 1024 Views
Geography alone can do this
30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
- 961 Views
Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
- 933 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
- 1075 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
- 931 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
- 920 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
- 965 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
- 945 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
- 867 Views
Nope...
30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
- 1077 Views
Re: Nope...
30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
- 927 Views
Oh my...
30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
- 991 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
- 941 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
- 889 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
- 975 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
- 935 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
- 985 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
- 971 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
- 1053 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
- 1012 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
- 905 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
- 961 Views
How is this fact?
29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
- 1010 Views
Re: How is this fact?
29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
- 987 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
- 952 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
- 985 Views
Are you blind man?
30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
- 986 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
- 983 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
- 989 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
- 1120 Views