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Re: Excellent points... DomA Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM
He had used those numbers for years, he had to know that the Tower would turn down 40% of all potential channellers, it gave him a basis to start with, but he was fully aware the sample among AS (not so among WF, WO) is so small it deviated from the stats (as it did with the new novices).


That is plain wrong. The sample is not so small it would deviate tha much by random chance. If both the quote about 62.5% and the 200 out of 1000 are right, then there is some mechanism by which those novices were systematically selected from the weaker part of the population. As darius_sedai said, it could be that Northern Alataran women are for some reason weaker, or it could be something else, but the sample size is not the problem.



The sample is very small, and mostly from the same areas, and again the stats are skewed by the fact the recruiting was done on a purely voluntary basis, nowhere thorough, and there's no way to know what percentage of all potential channelers from those areas they represent, but it won't be all that high (those women were from northern Murandy/southern Andor, women who had time to reach the rebel camp in the month between Egwene opening the Book to every woman and the departure for TV. It's a sample of a few hundred women that doesn't include the women recruited in the Salidar days. AS do not awake the ability of learners too weak to become AS - they simply turn them away, it's only weak wilders they agree to take in to teach them enough so they'd survive. The weak ones found in the Salidar days would have been turned away, but for a month in Northern Murandy, Egwene ordered that no one be turned away anymore. The rest of those women come from countryside around Dragonmount during the months of siege, an area where women would be far more likely to have tried going to TV to be tested in their youth, and in which the percentage of unfound ability must be abnormally smaller than in most other areas (probably not all). Among those recruits would also be an abnormal percentageof women who had gone to TV before but had been turned down as too old or too weak, but now Egwene's edict let all these women from around TV the possibility to join after all, no matter their strength or age).

In the TR the stats were skewed completely the other way, with the ability being above the normal percentage (closer to percentage of previous millenia), and with a lot of the women tested of significant, above median strength.

There would be a minimum of 2000 female channellers to recruit in the population of Caemlyn alone (if you calculate it at 1% of occurence of the ability in the global population, it's not generous, nor is it generous to put the female pop of Caemlyn at 200,000 as Lower Caemlyn has grown massively since RJ said in a Q&A the pop of Caemlyn was around 500,000 people).

And keep in mind all the evidence point to strength being determined by the soul. If there are genetic factors involved, they are genetic factors that attract naturally souls with a strong strength (and no, it's nothing to do with physical strength or big bodies... from the evidence we have, there seems to be a corollation with "soul" personality (those traits in which Rand and LTT are very close and which seems inherited from the soul and not genetic or from life experience, the whole nature vs. nurture aspect). From Siuan to Nynaeve to the Forsaken, the only woman (or man) of substantial strength we know who doesn't have a strong willed, stubborn personality is Moghedien, and for all her personality flaws, she's still strong willed and stubborn in her way - she couldn't be so good in TAR without that. We know strong personalities can have a weak ability (Morgase, Sorilea are examples), but we haven't got strong channelers with a weak personality, and it's even more flagrant in sparkers. And it's got nothing to do with confidence given by channelling, as we know from examples like Sharina and even more Nynaeve.


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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3233 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 941 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1136 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1439 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1608 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1088 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1371 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1725 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1380 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1462 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1420 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1434 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1396 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1287 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1452 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 849 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1510 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1256 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1621 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1207 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1351 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1317 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1331 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1409 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1358 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1438 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1350 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1318 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1237 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1289 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1278 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1203 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1335 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1297 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1515 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1386 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1384 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1595 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1139 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1241 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1384 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1159 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1166 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1157 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1359 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1132 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1262 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1336 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1128 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1373 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1106 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1146 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1099 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1389 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1255 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1152 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1392 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1211 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1232 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1203 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1664 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1235 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1319 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1183 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1188 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1186 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1293 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1134 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1172 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1167 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1315 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1342 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1160 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1131 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1130 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1130 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1387 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1122 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1183 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1186 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1383 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1093 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1213 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1165 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1186 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1299 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1142 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1167 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1141 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1089 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1160 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1815 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1248 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1273 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1160 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1357 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1185 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1330 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1200 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1146 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1326 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1281 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1164 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1261 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1185 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1205 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1140 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1163 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1167 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1306 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1357 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 839 Views

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