A good real world analogy for OP strength would be IQ. Nebulous as the very concept of IQ is, one important fact about it is that IQ also has a normal distribution. Now, if you take the IQ scores of a random population sample, it will approximate to a bell curve. But if you take a sample of "people who want to go to university", you WON'T get a bell curve.
Actually, that's probably not even true. I guess people who want to go to university also have a bell curve IQ, but probably with a higher average than the general population.
In any case, it is perfecly reasonable that high IQ is correlated with wanting to go to university. It is not perfecly reasonable that being a potentially strong channeler is correlated with wanting to become Aes Sedai, since most people don't know they can channel when they decide.
And that's the sample we have from the Rebels. A selection of people ready to give up their former lives and attach themselves to the Tower. This is NOT a random sample. In the case of Northern Altara, it worked out to there being fewer women strong enough to attain the shawl than expected (the obvious reason is RJ wanted there to be some tension about TG. The sudden addition of 600 strong channelers to the Tower would make it unreasonably strong).
So instead of choosing a self consistent approach, like for example having them recruit only 200 novices, he ignores his previous comment about the 62.5%.
Serisouly, there is no point throwing out numbers like 62.5% if he just ignores them whenever it's convenient.
Take another 1000 from there, or indeed, consider the sample we have from the Two Rivers (which is also non-random, as it was age restricted), and you get a higher than average number of women capable of being Aes Sedai (almost 100%, in fact). Take many such non-random samples from many places, and the combined numbers will likely resemble the bell curve and RJ's 62.5% more closely.
Again, it could well be that people from Norther Alatara are generally weaker in the power. I can't argue against that.
Though if that were the case, why couldn't the bell curve have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?
Fram kamerater!
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
- 2675 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
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Androl did. *NM*
25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
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But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
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Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
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Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
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Travelling
25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
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Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
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Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
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How strong Pevara is...
25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
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I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
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Agreed
25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
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That was disproved long ago...
26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
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But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
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Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
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But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
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The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
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Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
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The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
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Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
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You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
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I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
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Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
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This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
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Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
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So what's your conclusion?
29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
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you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
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Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
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Re: Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
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You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
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I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
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He drew graphs!
30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
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Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
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Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
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Huh?
29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
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Re: Huh?
29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
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You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
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Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
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Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
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Geography alone can do this
30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
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Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
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Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
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Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
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Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
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Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
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Nope...
30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
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Re: Nope...
30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
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Oh my...
30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
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Thought experment time! Hurrah!
30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
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But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
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Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
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Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
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The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
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Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
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The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
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The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
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Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
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There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
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How is this fact?
29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
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Re: How is this fact?
29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
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Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
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Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
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Are you blind man?
30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
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Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
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Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
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On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
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