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Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM

What on earth does several strong novices from Altara have to do with anything?

It raises the question of what the average strength among those novices is.
If the 62.5% quote is correct, and if the 1000 novices were a random sample of the channeling population, you would expect somewhere around 625 of them to be strong enough to become Aes Sedai, give or take a few tens. That only 200 of them are strong enough is less likely than you winning the national lottery every week for the entire lifetime of the universe.

If they were a random sample, which they clearly are not.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3188 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 911 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1102 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1413 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1539 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1060 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1328 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1682 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1358 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1416 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1395 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1410 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1374 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1254 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1424 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 819 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1480 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1217 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1585 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1182 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1324 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1284 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1308 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1373 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1329 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1394 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1314 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1283 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1204 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1260 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1256 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1174 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1307 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1273 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1465 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1355 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1314 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1539 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1110 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1213 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1345 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1129 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1141 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1239 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1130 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1331 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1110 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1234 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1308 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1310 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1098 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1322 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1083 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1124 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1070 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1346 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1226 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1127 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1333 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1186 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1199 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1176 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1619 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1207 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1289 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1161 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1156 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1151 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1244 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1105 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1147 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1140 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1269 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1301 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1129 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1110 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1107 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1107 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1335 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1095 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1154 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1166 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1343 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1069 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1185 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1137 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1137 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1271 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1113 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1139 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1111 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1058 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1135 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1772 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1194 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1221 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1129 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1317 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1165 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1169 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1222 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1280 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1162 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1119 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1278 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1236 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1131 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1235 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1158 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1178 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1112 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1125 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1138 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1260 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1280 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1315 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 814 Views
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