Brandon even told me at signing (well, rather the guy beside me who had asked him that) he'd seen the graphs RJ made in the notes...
This is very interesting. I wish this would make it into the interview database at TL so that those doubting the bell curve can give it a rest.
RJ obviously used this as a tool to loosely distribute larger groups of characters.
There probably is an higher percentage of rarer strengths on both sides among WO and WF, simply because the ability is more common among them (they've not culled out the female gene pool among sparkers the way AS have done, and both group marry and have children).
For the rest, all evidence points to strength coming exclusively from the soul (what happened to Lanfear, discrediting the hypothesis it was a body issue ought to put that debate to rest. There's no oddity with Rand, nor with any of the transmigrated Forsaken who all have their exact old strength), so the bell curve would be very close to the AOL's, but in practice I'm guessing it would be very different as the percentage of women whose ability is found is incredibly low (tens of thousand aren't found in the Westlands alone), and the ability is less present in various groups because of culling. I suck at statistics, but my feeling is that the sample among AS at least is probably so small in comparison to Westlands women with the ability, that how the women get found is so random (relying massively on women deciding to go being tested... and they have such a small window of opportunity to make that decision...) there would be tons of aberrations, for e.g. for a few hundreds years, on a sample of only 1000 women, very few subjects with the rare strengths might show up at all.
There probably is an higher percentage of rarer strengths on both sides among WO and WF, simply because the ability is more common among them (they've not culled out the female gene pool among sparkers the way AS have done, and both group marry and have children).
For the rest, all evidence points to strength coming exclusively from the soul (what happened to Lanfear, discrediting the hypothesis it was a body issue ought to put that debate to rest. There's no oddity with Rand, nor with any of the transmigrated Forsaken who all have their exact old strength), so the bell curve would be very close to the AOL's, but in practice I'm guessing it would be very different as the percentage of women whose ability is found is incredibly low (tens of thousand aren't found in the Westlands alone), and the ability is less present in various groups because of culling. I suck at statistics, but my feeling is that the sample among AS at least is probably so small in comparison to Westlands women with the ability, that how the women get found is so random (relying massively on women deciding to go being tested... and they have such a small window of opportunity to make that decision...) there would be tons of aberrations, for e.g. for a few hundreds years, on a sample of only 1000 women, very few subjects with the rare strengths might show up at all.
You're very correct that the numbers among the Aes Sedai are skewed. They're a terrible sample set. RJ even proved it right out: among the 1000 novices they found, Egwene says only 200 were strong enough to be AS. But RJ said 62.5% of the population should be strong enough to be AS. That we don't see this statistic pan out is proof that "wanting to be AS" is a sample set that is not very representative of "can be AS".
Agree with your other points too.
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
3233 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
- 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
941 Views
Androl did. *NM*
- 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
1136 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
- 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
1440 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
- 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
1608 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
1725 Views
Travelling
- 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
1420 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
1434 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
1396 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
1287 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
- 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
1256 Views
How strong Pevara is...
- 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
1621 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
- 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
1207 Views
Agreed
- 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
1351 Views
That was disproved long ago...
- 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
1409 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
- 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
1358 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
- 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
1438 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
- 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
1350 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
1289 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
1278 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
1203 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
1335 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
1298 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
1515 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
1595 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
1139 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
1242 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
1385 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
1160 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
1166 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
1263 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
1157 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
1359 Views
So what's your conclusion?
- 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
1133 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
- 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
1347 Views
Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
1129 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
1374 Views
You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
1106 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
1146 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
- 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
1099 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
1389 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
1255 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1152 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1152 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
1232 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
1203 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
1188 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
1186 Views
Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
1293 Views
Re: Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
1134 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
1173 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
1167 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
1315 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
1342 Views
Geography alone can do this
- 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
1160 Views
Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
1130 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
1387 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
1122 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
1094 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
1213 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
1165 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
1186 Views
Nope...
- 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
1299 Views
Re: Nope...
- 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
1142 Views
Oh my...
- 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
1167 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
- 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
1141 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
1089 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
1160 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
1248 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
1273 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
1160 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
1357 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
1186 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
1214 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
- 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
1260 Views
How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
1330 Views
Re: How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
1200 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
1164 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
1261 Views
Are you blind man?
- 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
1185 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
1168 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
- 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
1300 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
- 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
1307 Views
