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Excellent points... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM

Brandon even told me at signing (well, rather the guy beside me who had asked him that) he'd seen the graphs RJ made in the notes...

This is very interesting. I wish this would make it into the interview database at TL so that those doubting the bell curve can give it a rest.
RJ obviously used this as a tool to loosely distribute larger groups of characters.

There probably is an higher percentage of rarer strengths on both sides among WO and WF, simply because the ability is more common among them (they've not culled out the female gene pool among sparkers the way AS have done, and both group marry and have children).

For the rest, all evidence points to strength coming exclusively from the soul (what happened to Lanfear, discrediting the hypothesis it was a body issue ought to put that debate to rest. There's no oddity with Rand, nor with any of the transmigrated Forsaken who all have their exact old strength), so the bell curve would be very close to the AOL's, but in practice I'm guessing it would be very different as the percentage of women whose ability is found is incredibly low (tens of thousand aren't found in the Westlands alone), and the ability is less present in various groups because of culling. I suck at statistics, but my feeling is that the sample among AS at least is probably so small in comparison to Westlands women with the ability, that how the women get found is so random (relying massively on women deciding to go being tested... and they have such a small window of opportunity to make that decision...) there would be tons of aberrations, for e.g. for a few hundreds years, on a sample of only 1000 women, very few subjects with the rare strengths might show up at all.

You're very correct that the numbers among the Aes Sedai are skewed. They're a terrible sample set. RJ even proved it right out: among the 1000 novices they found, Egwene says only 200 were strong enough to be AS. But RJ said 62.5% of the population should be strong enough to be AS. That we don't see this statistic pan out is proof that "wanting to be AS" is a sample set that is not very representative of "can be AS".


Agree with your other points too.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3153 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 892 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1080 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1394 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1487 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1041 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1290 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1648 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1336 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1391 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1376 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1392 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1356 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1236 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1400 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 795 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1460 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1178 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1543 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1160 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1308 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1254 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1293 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1340 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1311 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1355 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1282 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1255 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1173 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1242 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1234 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1159 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1287 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1255 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1419 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1331 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1254 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1502 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1094 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1191 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1312 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1111 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1128 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1114 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1309 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1093 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1210 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1287 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1079 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1295 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1063 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1104 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1052 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1314 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1211 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1111 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1284 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1165 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1176 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1148 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1580 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1188 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1270 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1139 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1129 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1134 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1210 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1087 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1129 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1122 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1236 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1265 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1109 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1094 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1082 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1088 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1300 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1076 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1135 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1145 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1311 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1052 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1166 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1104 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1103 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1251 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1091 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1123 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1089 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1034 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1110 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1741 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1149 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1192 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1110 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1282 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1146 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1247 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1142 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1099 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1247 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1192 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1110 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1214 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1134 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1159 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1097 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1094 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1121 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1259 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1284 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 789 Views

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