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Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow Send a noteboard - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
Everyone today is below average. Because channelers are weaker today.

In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.


The defining property of a bell curve is that it shows the probability of finding a given value, as a function of the value, and that this probability distribution is shaped like a bell (hence the name), with the highest probability found at the average value.

I get that channelers are weaker in the Third Age, and are mostly found in the bottom half when using the same scale as during the Age of Legends. So while you can certainly use the same scale to discuss the strength of channelers in the Third Age and in the Age of Legends, it makes no sense to talk about the same bell curve, because the distribution of strengths are not the same.


We're saying exactly the same thing.

That a different distribution applied to the Age of Legends population as opposed to the Third Age population.

And I'm saying that the only way that RJ's "Bell Curve" description of channeler distribution can fit the facts as presented in the books, is if the Bell Curve he was referring to is the Age of Legends distribution, not the Third Age distribution.

Because, (to use the simplest possible example), on a Bell Curve the strongest possible channeler will be exactly twice the strength of the average channeler, and we know that it takes about 3 channelers of Moiraine's strength to match a Lanfear level channeler, therefore Moiraine cannot be higher than about 30 on the strength scale.

Hence the average strength channeler at 50 is almost twice as strong as Moiraine.

Clearly, therefore, all Aes Sedai weaker than Moiraine (which equates to about 99% of them) must fall under the lower part of the curve.

You cannot get away from that simple argument.

Hence the Bell Curve cannot apply to the modern day distribution of known channelers.

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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2675 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 650 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 902 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1003 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 944 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 671 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 971 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1169 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1006 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1057 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1029 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1024 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 943 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 889 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 981 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 574 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1076 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 787 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1100 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 848 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 933 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 882 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 933 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 887 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 940 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 893 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 820 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 820 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 831 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 885 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 885 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 780 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 898 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 870 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 924 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 978 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 681 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 915 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 814 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 849 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 857 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 776 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 755 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 750 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 936 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 702 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 850 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 943 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 715 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 817 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 738 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 750 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 732 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 856 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 848 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 746 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 797 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 771 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 777 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 804 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1151 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 819 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 890 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 811 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 788 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 759 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 755 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 771 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 770 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 805 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 809 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 829 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 781 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 762 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 726 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 730 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 870 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 739 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 796 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 751 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 880 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 734 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 771 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 735 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 684 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 878 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 726 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 821 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 742 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 689 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 777 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1306 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 755 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 783 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 765 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 836 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 781 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 811 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 782 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 746 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 834 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 709 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 746 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 773 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 792 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 815 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 766 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 757 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 759 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 905 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 892 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 566 Views

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