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Re: Here's why its not random... Tor Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
A good real world analogy for OP strength would be IQ. Nebulous as the very concept of IQ is, one important fact about it is that IQ also has a normal distribution. Now, if you take the IQ scores of a random population sample, it will approximate to a bell curve. But if you take a sample of "people who want to go to university", you WON'T get a bell curve.


Actually, that's probably not even true. I guess people who want to go to university also have a bell curve IQ, but probably with a higher average than the general population.

In any case, it is perfecly reasonable that high IQ is correlated with wanting to go to university. It is not perfecly reasonable that being a potentially strong channeler is correlated with wanting to become Aes Sedai, since most people don't know they can channel when they decide.

And that's the sample we have from the Rebels. A selection of people ready to give up their former lives and attach themselves to the Tower. This is NOT a random sample. In the case of Northern Altara, it worked out to there being fewer women strong enough to attain the shawl than expected (the obvious reason is RJ wanted there to be some tension about TG. The sudden addition of 600 strong channelers to the Tower would make it unreasonably strong).


So instead of choosing a self consistent approach, like for example having them recruit only 200 novices, he ignores his previous comment about the 62.5%.

Serisouly, there is no point throwing out numbers like 62.5% if he just ignores them whenever it's convenient.

Take another 1000 from there, or indeed, consider the sample we have from the Two Rivers (which is also non-random, as it was age restricted), and you get a higher than average number of women capable of being Aes Sedai (almost 100%, in fact). Take many such non-random samples from many places, and the combined numbers will likely resemble the bell curve and RJ's 62.5% more closely.


Again, it could well be that people from Norther Alatara are generally weaker in the power. I can't argue against that.

Though if that were the case, why couldn't the bell curve have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2894 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 741 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 998 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1236 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1172 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 874 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1146 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1384 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1193 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1237 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1233 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1252 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1147 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1088 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1173 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 653 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1285 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 966 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1315 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1031 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1120 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1089 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1140 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1106 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1150 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1101 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1015 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1025 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1014 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1070 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1070 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 994 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1102 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1085 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1108 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1153 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 838 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1189 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 953 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1042 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1057 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 964 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 975 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 981 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 933 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1151 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 931 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1056 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1146 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1040 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 914 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1039 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 915 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 967 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 910 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1062 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1057 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 939 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 997 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 960 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 990 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1002 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1338 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1019 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1092 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 968 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 968 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 967 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 976 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 942 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 954 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 984 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1005 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1023 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 960 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 946 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 936 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 932 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1075 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 930 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 973 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 938 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1083 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 920 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 965 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 945 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 866 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1077 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 926 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 991 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 941 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 888 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 974 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1507 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 935 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 985 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 971 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1053 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1011 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 905 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 960 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1009 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 986 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 952 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1025 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 921 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 951 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 984 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 985 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1022 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 953 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 958 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 983 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 989 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1119 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1074 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 650 Views
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