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Ehm. I disagree strongly with your opinion of Mr. Zakaria. nossy Send a noteboard - 23/02/2010 03:23:09 PM
I will admit that it is hard to tell. I read all those links, which you can find in my original link, so you didn't really need to "school" me on his article.;)

All right, moving along to his other points.

Iran, we're told, is different. The country cannot be deterred by America's vast arsenal of nukes because it is run by a bunch of mystic mullahs who aren't rational, embrace death and have millenarian fantasies. But this isn't and never was an accurate description of Iran's canny (and ruthlessly pragmatic) clerical elite.

Considering the government of Iran has publicly espoused genocide and denied the holocaust, the best that might be said of them ethically is they might truly believe in such stuff. People who, in the name of ruthless pragmatism, are willing to rile people up on genocide are certainly just as likely as true believers to be willing to engage in it, I think not believing in such things and using it as a political tool is probably worse than actually believing it and doing so.

Well, I certainly won't claim to know everything about the region, but I think part of the reason Zakaria suggests a long term solution is that many Iranians aren't in that above group (see comments on Green Movement and long-term strategy). Yes, the current administration and ayatollah are, but do we want to make the modern Iranians hate us for a decade delay in the inevitable? I'm honestly curious, how do you see us delaying them forever? Repeat strikes for the rest of time?

The International Atomic Energy Agency warned last week of its "concerns" that the Iranian regime was moving to acquire a nuclear-weapons capability, not just nuclear energy. But this does not change the powerful calculus against a military strike, which would most likely delay the Iranian program by only a few years

Bombing their installations would do more than delay it for a few years, and obviously a full-blown invasion would too. Making nuclear weapons is tricky, not because people don't know how to make them, the physics behind a nuclear bomb, the theory, is relatively simple and not a secret. Getting weapons grade Uranium or plutonium is not. They could rebuild centrifuges in a few years, they'd have to acquire new uranium, and they would also know that the even the most apparently anti-war POTUS the US is likely to have for some time is willing to bomb them again if they continue, or take more stern measures.

And we all end up in the cycle of hate for centuries. If more of them see us as the devil, more of them are willing to help the administration against us, rather than to fight against a government that doesn't represent their position. When does it stop? Doesn't it make sense to try for the long-term and see if we can live past the crazies? And I don't play the blame game, but we're not completely innocent in the way they got to such an effed up state in the first place. I think some attempts at reform are more necessary than more wars.

If Israel's large nuclear arsenal has not made Egypt seek its own nukes -- even though that country has fought and lost three wars with Israel -- it is unclear to me why an Iranian bomb would.

Probably because Egypt's leaders don't sit around calling for the obliteration of Israel constantly.

So you think that means other Islamic states would suddenly demand access to these bombs if Iran has them?

Moderate Arab states and Muslim governments everywhere would be on the defensive.

The majority of those govt's would be happy to make some nasty comments about us if we bombed Iran... then quietly sigh in relief that the problem had been dealt with. They don't like Iran, they regard the country with a mixture of fear and loathing.

Which ones? That's not simple disbelief of your claim, but rather that I'd like you to link me to something I can read here, if you have anything close to mind.
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Why Iran's dictators can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:31:52 PM 836 Views
Not sure he showed us how they can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:56:42 PM 376 Views
Er yeah, that's totally the argument I was going for. - 23/02/2010 02:06:52 PM 420 Views
No Palin was simply cover for the "we just have to accept Iran will get the bomb argument" - 23/02/2010 02:26:45 PM 446 Views
She wasn't cover for anything, but I like how this argument keeps going that way. - 23/02/2010 02:36:47 PM 424 Views
As I have noted it isn't conseratives that keep bring her up - 23/02/2010 03:26:11 PM 368 Views
and I tried to take her out of the argument. But here we are. - 23/02/2010 03:39:29 PM 402 Views
dealing with the repercussions of attacking another Islamic country may be our best option - 23/02/2010 04:25:47 PM 497 Views
The world needs to decide how it feels about non-proliferation. - 23/02/2010 07:11:51 PM 340 Views
yes American used the bomb so now we should let everyone else take a turn *NM* - 24/02/2010 06:22:23 AM 222 Views
It would certainly demonstrate the folly of that view. - 24/02/2010 06:49:56 AM 394 Views
well hell then why not just sel them nukes and get it over with - 24/02/2010 02:33:00 PM 394 Views
I really don't think the folly need be demonstrated more than once. - 28/02/2010 02:49:30 AM 331 Views
No I never played Civ - 28/02/2010 06:02:38 PM 412 Views
It's a classic, you should. - 28/02/2010 06:19:21 PM 462 Views
Oh. - 23/02/2010 02:07:32 PM 354 Views
Sheesh! - 23/02/2010 02:11:34 PM 554 Views
- 23/02/2010 02:16:24 PM 562 Views
- 23/02/2010 02:41:40 PM 558 Views
I think this guy lives on the moon - 23/02/2010 02:51:20 PM 485 Views
Ehm. I disagree strongly with your opinion of Mr. Zakaria. - 23/02/2010 03:23:09 PM 495 Views
Views on him tend to be polar - 23/02/2010 04:06:04 PM 541 Views
I was just talking to Lupine about how I like your posts, but I'm gonna make an exception here. - 23/02/2010 09:28:44 PM 442 Views
You'll have to link that then, I always like to read things that feed my ego - 24/02/2010 12:17:37 AM 447 Views
Oh, it was on AIM. - 24/02/2010 01:13:07 PM 515 Views
Should've been on wotmania Skype chat. - 25/02/2010 12:47:42 PM 368 Views
Here's an article in response to Zakaria's article - 23/02/2010 03:19:41 PM 487 Views
I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 03:58:39 PM 375 Views
Re: I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 04:22:27 PM 374 Views
I don't believe they can be stopped - 23/02/2010 10:37:47 PM 379 Views
One thing he forgets... - 24/02/2010 12:19:12 AM 404 Views
Iran is a thorny problem - 24/02/2010 05:38:09 AM 411 Views
I still don't believe North Korea harmless. - 24/02/2010 06:59:15 AM 509 Views
I never used the term 'harmless' - 24/02/2010 10:01:14 PM 443 Views
Fair point, sorry. - 25/02/2010 12:45:47 PM 480 Views
No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 25/02/2010 05:19:10 PM 375 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 28/02/2010 02:30:26 AM 511 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 01/03/2010 03:53:58 PM 386 Views
A carrot without a stick is just a free carrot. - 02/03/2010 08:01:23 AM 489 Views
It's not a carrot/stick thing at all - 02/03/2010 04:29:00 PM 481 Views
Maybe I'm just out of the loop, but it doesn't seem that way. - 05/03/2010 01:02:57 AM 519 Views
They can hit Tokyo - 25/02/2010 06:10:44 PM 403 Views
So? - 25/02/2010 07:01:37 PM 554 Views
I think you are grossly overestimating our border security - 25/02/2010 08:03:13 PM 338 Views
Well, I KNOW you're ignorant about a lot of things and this shows it. - 25/02/2010 08:56:45 PM 401 Views
Yes you are the Great Cold War Warrior of the chairforce - 28/02/2010 06:44:31 PM 454 Views
Oh I'm sorry - so you're not so much ignorant as idiot. - 01/03/2010 03:48:32 PM 335 Views
Is that what taught you in chairforce school loser boy? - 01/03/2010 04:33:53 PM 431 Views
Nope, it was the internet actually - 02/03/2010 04:31:36 PM 365 Views
Israel does not have the military capability to destroy or significantly damage Iran's nuclear sites - 24/02/2010 12:33:00 PM 489 Views
I agree, even if for different reasons. - 24/02/2010 01:01:00 PM 343 Views
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about - and it shows to anyone who does - 24/02/2010 10:33:29 PM 440 Views
But... - 25/02/2010 12:44:15 AM 478 Views
Re: But... - 25/02/2010 05:52:07 PM 579 Views
Here's a few questions for you then. - 25/02/2010 02:55:00 AM 522 Views
You're not asking questions you're trying to support your point - 25/02/2010 06:49:28 PM 461 Views
I think this ties in well with this article - 25/02/2010 09:56:04 AM 406 Views
That's actually a really good idea - 25/02/2010 07:05:37 PM 340 Views

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