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Fair point, sorry. Joel Send a noteboard - 25/02/2010 12:45:47 PM
I used the term 'not that scary'.

In relative terms, that's true. Recall, I was in Strategic Air Command during the Cold War. The end of it, to be sure, but during the Cold War nonetheless.

To me scary is the Soviet Union's arsenal pointed and the US and the US doing the same thing right back.

The North Koreans have at best a shaky delivery system. Tests have not been shown that it is a reliable piece of technology (several have failed) and they don't have a lot of them. In the event of real tension, the actual number of these that could be used operationally would be low and there is also the reality tha they would need to survive a bombing campaign to eliminate them unless the attack was a low to no warning First Strike.

So no, the North Koreans aren't that scary. They have some nukes, but don't have a reliable way of using them.

You are right, by the way, in that the kind of weapons used during WWII are far from the smallest possible. The US produced tactical nuclear artillery shells for its 109mm SP howitzers back when I was in diapers.

It's just that, tree hugging appeasing liberal that I am, I'm very leery of the tendency to downplay the real threat North Korea poses. Kim Jong Il makes Saddam look like a common sense accessible guy with his finger on the pulse of the world; I don't think we need to go through each five DefCons for him to launch a nuke or two. On the right day, indigestion would likely be reason enough, though in all honesty I still think it more likely he'd hold Tokyo hostage than try a much riskier and more difficult strike on L.A. (though it is within the extreme range of his longest range missiles. ) Of course, the far shorter time to target reduces the chances of AEGIS bringing it down from "small" to "negligible. "

Believe it or not, I knew about the atomic artillery (nasty piece of fission only work, but I've got pictures from a test firing in one of my antiquated Encyclopedia Americans, either from the "Strategy" article or the "Nuclear Weapons" one. ) I guess I was being a little snarky, sorry, but you take my point: Just because the detonations were far less than the Japan bombs doesn't mean they were a fizzle (though it does raise the possibility they were just a bluff with a LOT of high explosives. ) I agree with your logic to a point but come to the opposite conclusion: It's not so much that the greater North Korean nuclear threat to America and our allies means we shouldn't invade Iran as that we SHOULD invade (or otherwise disarm) North Korea. All the talk about the missiles pointed at Seoul just boils down to "we should wait until those missiles have nuclear warheads before we act. "

And quite honestly that logic is applicable to the REAL power behind North Korea as well. A conflict is coming, and the only reason to delay an inevitable conflict is in the belief you will grow stronger, your enemy will grow weaker, or both. I believe China has delayed and is delaying the conflict for just that reason, and that they are correct to do so; why wait until they have a better chance of defeating us?
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Why Iran's dictators can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:31:52 PM 855 Views
Not sure he showed us how they can be deterred - 23/02/2010 01:56:42 PM 382 Views
Er yeah, that's totally the argument I was going for. - 23/02/2010 02:06:52 PM 426 Views
No Palin was simply cover for the "we just have to accept Iran will get the bomb argument" - 23/02/2010 02:26:45 PM 452 Views
She wasn't cover for anything, but I like how this argument keeps going that way. - 23/02/2010 02:36:47 PM 442 Views
As I have noted it isn't conseratives that keep bring her up - 23/02/2010 03:26:11 PM 376 Views
and I tried to take her out of the argument. But here we are. - 23/02/2010 03:39:29 PM 409 Views
dealing with the repercussions of attacking another Islamic country may be our best option - 23/02/2010 04:25:47 PM 504 Views
The world needs to decide how it feels about non-proliferation. - 23/02/2010 07:11:51 PM 347 Views
yes American used the bomb so now we should let everyone else take a turn *NM* - 24/02/2010 06:22:23 AM 225 Views
It would certainly demonstrate the folly of that view. - 24/02/2010 06:49:56 AM 402 Views
well hell then why not just sel them nukes and get it over with - 24/02/2010 02:33:00 PM 403 Views
I really don't think the folly need be demonstrated more than once. - 28/02/2010 02:49:30 AM 339 Views
No I never played Civ - 28/02/2010 06:02:38 PM 420 Views
It's a classic, you should. - 28/02/2010 06:19:21 PM 471 Views
Oh. - 23/02/2010 02:07:32 PM 362 Views
Sheesh! - 23/02/2010 02:11:34 PM 563 Views
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I think this guy lives on the moon - 23/02/2010 02:51:20 PM 491 Views
Ehm. I disagree strongly with your opinion of Mr. Zakaria. - 23/02/2010 03:23:09 PM 501 Views
Views on him tend to be polar - 23/02/2010 04:06:04 PM 548 Views
I was just talking to Lupine about how I like your posts, but I'm gonna make an exception here. - 23/02/2010 09:28:44 PM 460 Views
You'll have to link that then, I always like to read things that feed my ego - 24/02/2010 12:17:37 AM 454 Views
Oh, it was on AIM. - 24/02/2010 01:13:07 PM 525 Views
Should've been on wotmania Skype chat. - 25/02/2010 12:47:42 PM 376 Views
Here's an article in response to Zakaria's article - 23/02/2010 03:19:41 PM 494 Views
I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 03:58:39 PM 395 Views
Re: I like that article, actually. - 23/02/2010 04:22:27 PM 395 Views
I don't believe they can be stopped - 23/02/2010 10:37:47 PM 387 Views
One thing he forgets... - 24/02/2010 12:19:12 AM 412 Views
Iran is a thorny problem - 24/02/2010 05:38:09 AM 418 Views
I still don't believe North Korea harmless. - 24/02/2010 06:59:15 AM 516 Views
I never used the term 'harmless' - 24/02/2010 10:01:14 PM 452 Views
Fair point, sorry. - 25/02/2010 12:45:47 PM 503 Views
No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 25/02/2010 05:19:10 PM 382 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 28/02/2010 02:30:26 AM 518 Views
Re: No worries - I was just making sure you understood my position - 01/03/2010 03:53:58 PM 394 Views
A carrot without a stick is just a free carrot. - 02/03/2010 08:01:23 AM 495 Views
It's not a carrot/stick thing at all - 02/03/2010 04:29:00 PM 490 Views
Maybe I'm just out of the loop, but it doesn't seem that way. - 05/03/2010 01:02:57 AM 538 Views
They can hit Tokyo - 25/02/2010 06:10:44 PM 411 Views
So? - 25/02/2010 07:01:37 PM 563 Views
I think you are grossly overestimating our border security - 25/02/2010 08:03:13 PM 346 Views
Well, I KNOW you're ignorant about a lot of things and this shows it. - 25/02/2010 08:56:45 PM 422 Views
Yes you are the Great Cold War Warrior of the chairforce - 28/02/2010 06:44:31 PM 460 Views
Oh I'm sorry - so you're not so much ignorant as idiot. - 01/03/2010 03:48:32 PM 343 Views
Is that what taught you in chairforce school loser boy? - 01/03/2010 04:33:53 PM 438 Views
Nope, it was the internet actually - 02/03/2010 04:31:36 PM 373 Views
Israel does not have the military capability to destroy or significantly damage Iran's nuclear sites - 24/02/2010 12:33:00 PM 497 Views
I agree, even if for different reasons. - 24/02/2010 01:01:00 PM 351 Views
You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about - and it shows to anyone who does - 24/02/2010 10:33:29 PM 445 Views
But... - 25/02/2010 12:44:15 AM 485 Views
Re: But... - 25/02/2010 05:52:07 PM 587 Views
Here's a few questions for you then. - 25/02/2010 02:55:00 AM 547 Views
You're not asking questions you're trying to support your point - 25/02/2010 06:49:28 PM 477 Views
I think this ties in well with this article - 25/02/2010 09:56:04 AM 415 Views
That's actually a really good idea - 25/02/2010 07:05:37 PM 346 Views

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