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Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM

What on earth does several strong novices from Altara have to do with anything?

It raises the question of what the average strength among those novices is.
If the 62.5% quote is correct, and if the 1000 novices were a random sample of the channeling population, you would expect somewhere around 625 of them to be strong enough to become Aes Sedai, give or take a few tens. That only 200 of them are strong enough is less likely than you winning the national lottery every week for the entire lifetime of the universe.

If they were a random sample, which they clearly are not.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3072 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 841 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1052 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1341 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1374 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 989 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1238 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1553 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1287 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1337 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1331 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1341 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1316 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1191 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1347 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 748 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1410 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1108 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1463 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1116 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1255 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1211 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1245 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1260 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1264 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1273 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1198 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1182 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1127 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1197 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1181 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1100 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1242 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1208 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1318 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1275 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1106 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1386 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1049 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1132 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1227 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1066 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1072 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1179 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1061 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1268 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1047 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1161 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1242 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1203 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1028 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1217 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1019 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1058 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1011 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1226 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1161 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1062 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1182 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1094 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1120 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1100 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1493 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1130 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1225 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1086 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1071 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1081 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1132 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1038 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1074 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1078 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1149 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1178 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1066 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1041 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1024 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1040 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1228 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1031 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1088 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1093 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1242 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1003 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1121 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1038 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1028 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1198 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1048 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1083 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1040 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 985 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1061 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1656 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1079 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1123 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1059 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1209 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1102 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1056 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1111 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1180 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1087 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1059 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1168 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1107 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1070 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1170 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1088 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1111 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1050 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1052 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1079 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1142 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1202 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1202 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 746 Views
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