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Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM

What on earth does several strong novices from Altara have to do with anything?

It raises the question of what the average strength among those novices is.
If the 62.5% quote is correct, and if the 1000 novices were a random sample of the channeling population, you would expect somewhere around 625 of them to be strong enough to become Aes Sedai, give or take a few tens. That only 200 of them are strong enough is less likely than you winning the national lottery every week for the entire lifetime of the universe.

If they were a random sample, which they clearly are not.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3007 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 800 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1032 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1309 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1301 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 944 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1198 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1484 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1246 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1296 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1291 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1303 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1270 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1148 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1285 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 716 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1360 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1052 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1414 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1086 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1205 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1161 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1210 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1206 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1217 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1209 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1119 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1134 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1082 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1153 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1132 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1056 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1198 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1167 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1231 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1226 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1003 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1313 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 998 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1090 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1163 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1026 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1033 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1123 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1012 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1229 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1011 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1119 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1198 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1154 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 985 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1144 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 975 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1017 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 965 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1171 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1122 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1023 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1114 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1035 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1073 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1055 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1442 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1081 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1186 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1038 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1024 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1039 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1072 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 995 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1026 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1037 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1089 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1116 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1022 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 997 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 984 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 986 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1167 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 990 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1039 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1048 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1190 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 970 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1068 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 995 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 964 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1152 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1002 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1048 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 991 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 940 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1029 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1590 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1020 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1068 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1023 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1150 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1064 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1004 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1052 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1124 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1048 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1020 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1111 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1051 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1014 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1110 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1040 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1072 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1008 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1014 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1035 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1076 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1167 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1155 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 714 Views
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