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Nope... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM

Becaus if there isn't you would expect the 1000 novices to form a representative sample of the population. Because 1000 people is plenty enough to say something about the probability of only 200 of them being strong enough, and it's so unlikely as to be impossible.

No, no you don't. This is not a truly random sample. Which is why you're not seeing the statistical distribution expected of a random sample. Why a particular non-random sample doesn't fit the curve isn't a matter of some specific mechanism.

Take pre-election polls, for example. A truly random sampling would give you an estimate of the final voting trends. But if you make it non-random, but not by selecting for a particular demographic, you will get weird results. For example, if you condict the polling not by calling random people, but by having random people call you in, your results will be skewed. But it won't be skewed due to one particular mechanism. What is distinguishing this sample set from a random sample is that you're asking members of the set to call in. And people call in for a variety of reasons, all of which may skew results one way or another.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3072 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 838 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1052 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1339 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1372 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 988 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1237 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1551 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1286 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1337 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1330 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1339 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1316 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1190 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1347 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 748 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1409 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1106 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1462 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1116 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1254 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1210 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1244 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1260 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1263 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1271 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1198 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1181 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1127 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1197 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1181 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1099 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1242 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1207 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1317 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1274 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1105 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1385 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1049 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1131 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1226 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1065 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1071 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1179 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1060 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1268 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1047 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1160 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1242 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1201 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1027 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1215 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1018 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1056 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1009 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1225 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1161 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1061 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1182 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1094 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1120 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1099 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1493 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1129 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1225 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1086 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1070 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1080 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1131 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1037 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1072 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1077 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1148 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1178 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1066 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1040 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1024 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1040 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1225 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1030 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1087 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1092 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1241 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1003 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1121 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1038 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1028 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1197 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1045 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1083 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1040 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 985 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1061 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1655 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1077 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1122 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1059 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1208 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1101 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1055 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1111 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1179 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1086 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1058 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1167 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1106 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1069 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1170 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1086 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1111 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1050 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1051 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1078 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1141 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1201 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1201 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 746 Views
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