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But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
You're wrong. A self-selected sample is a non-random sample, even if you can't pinpoint a specific way in which self-selection might screw the results. The entire point of random sampling is that you can't determine the exact mechanism by which self selection biases the results. If you don't understand this, then there's really no point discussing this.


So, thought experiment time:

You have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You then ask anyone who feels like it to come forward, and flip their coin. I would expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you? Remember, this is one of those scary self-selected samples.

Next, you have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You tell them all to flip their coin, and use a magic marker to put a mark on the face that lands up, without looking at the result. You then ask whoever feels like it to come forward, and show you their coin. I would still expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you?

Since people who don't know if they can channel don't know how strong they are going to be, the last thought experiment is equivalent to the situation with the novices.


Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3007 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 800 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1032 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1307 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1298 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 944 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1197 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1484 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1243 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1293 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1290 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1300 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1268 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1144 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1285 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 714 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1359 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1051 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1411 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1083 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1202 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1157 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1206 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1202 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1217 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1206 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1118 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1132 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1080 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1151 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1129 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1055 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1197 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1164 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1228 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1223 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1003 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1312 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 997 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1087 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1159 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1023 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1032 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1120 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1009 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1225 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1009 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1119 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1198 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1153 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 982 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1144 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 972 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1014 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 962 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1168 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1122 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1022 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1110 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1034 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1073 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1053 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1442 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1078 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1185 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1035 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1020 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1037 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1070 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 992 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1023 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1034 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1086 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1115 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1019 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 996 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 983 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 986 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1165 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 990 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1036 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1045 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1189 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 969 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1065 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 995 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 963 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1150 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 999 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1048 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 990 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 939 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1029 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1588 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1016 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1067 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1022 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1149 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1060 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1003 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1048 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1122 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1047 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1018 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1109 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1048 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1013 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1106 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1038 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1072 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1008 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1012 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1031 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1073 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1167 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1152 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 713 Views
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