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LOL darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM
Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.


Of course. To clarify, when I say the situation with the novices is impossible, what I actually mean is that the probability of that happning is by chance is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000133.

And yes, I did the math, and yes, those are 136 zeros.

Edit:

My mistake, it should be 163 zeros.


I love that you did the math :P

Fact remains, despite how slim the chances, even without ANY other variation the potential for the 1000 novices to be weak exists. Those odds begin to change when you add in variants like genetic culling of the ability that may have occurred in the region and who knows what other factors. It could be as simple as the region recently underwent the terror of a rampaging False Dragon in Logain and women who would not normally think to become AS suddenly had an opportunity in front of them and went to investigate.

I disagree with DomA on a few points such as AS not awakening the ability in those too weak to become AS. From what we know on the male side, the test itself awakens the ability. In which case the AS would be stuck with even the weak women for several months at the very least. This also seems likely when we look at the Sul'dam, these are women who are on the brink of Channeling but have not yet done so and thus AS cannot feel the ability in them. For all we know there could have been 10,000 women who came to sign up, but only 1000 had any ability at all.

Further, if you look to the Black Tower as an example of voluntary recruits, we've seen some men who went there already had a good feeling that the ability was in them, like Grady and Almaragin (the Tairen lord) who each had male relatives who had could Channel and have proven to be rather Strong. Then look at Androl, who went out of simple curiosity, and he turns out to be very weak. It's possible many women in the 1000 Novices were driven to sign up because very recently they were in the path of Logain and they wanted both a sense of security and a sense of purpose but didn't "feel" the Power in themselves and like Androl they had a small level of ability. Others, like Sharina, had no real reason for leaving established lives (with huge conflicts in fact) and may well have "felt" the Power in themselves and took the opportunity to join. Sort of like having a "Calling" v. a "Vocation"

In the end there are many reasons Egwene could have picked up so many too weak women, but if we were to look at a formalized recruitment that gathered EVERY woman (spark or no-spark) who could channel from EVERY region of the world the 62.5% would be true. I believe that's meant to illustrate both AS ineffectiveness as well as light a path for the future of the WoT world post-TG and perhaps show us what things were like in the AoL. Millions of Channelers with varied abilities who could accomplish more together than they could separately.

Egwene has shown us flashes of what she intends with this throughout the series. She clearly wants to unify the Channeling groups and open up recruitment policies even further.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2974 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 781 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1018 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1294 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1247 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 926 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1185 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1448 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1230 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1281 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1268 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1291 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1223 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1129 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1247 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 687 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1337 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1026 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1374 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1065 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1176 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1137 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1189 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1173 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1192 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1162 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1087 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1100 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1066 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1125 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1114 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1036 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1170 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1147 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1197 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1206 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 942 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1269 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 981 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1071 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1122 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1011 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1015 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 988 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1208 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 990 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1102 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1184 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 967 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1105 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 958 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1003 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 950 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1141 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1105 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1000 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1072 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1004 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1048 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1042 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1408 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1063 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1163 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1013 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1005 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1027 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1041 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 979 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1003 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1023 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1052 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1086 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1000 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 982 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 970 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 969 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1132 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 970 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1015 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1016 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1142 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 956 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1018 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 980 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 935 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1133 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 977 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1031 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 975 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 920 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1010 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1559 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 987 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1043 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1007 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1120 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1048 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1083 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1030 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1006 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1081 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1005 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 997 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1068 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1021 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1057 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 993 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 994 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1019 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1154 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1125 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 680 Views

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