Everyone today is below average. Because channelers are weaker today.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
The defining property of a bell curve is that it shows the probability of finding a given value, as a function of the value, and that this probability distribution is shaped like a bell (hence the name), with the highest probability found at the average value.
I get that channelers are weaker in the Third Age, and are mostly found in the bottom half when using the same scale as during the Age of Legends. So while you can certainly use the same scale to discuss the strength of channelers in the Third Age and in the Age of Legends, it makes no sense to talk about the same bell curve, because the distribution of strengths are not the same.
We're saying exactly the same thing.
That a different distribution applied to the Age of Legends population as opposed to the Third Age population.
And I'm saying that the only way that RJ's "Bell Curve" description of channeler distribution can fit the facts as presented in the books, is if the Bell Curve he was referring to is the Age of Legends distribution, not the Third Age distribution.
Because, (to use the simplest possible example), on a Bell Curve the strongest possible channeler will be exactly twice the strength of the average channeler, and we know that it takes about 3 channelers of Moiraine's strength to match a Lanfear level channeler, therefore Moiraine cannot be higher than about 30 on the strength scale.
Hence the average strength channeler at 50 is almost twice as strong as Moiraine.
Clearly, therefore, all Aes Sedai weaker than Moiraine (which equates to about 99% of them) must fall under the lower part of the curve.
You cannot get away from that simple argument.
Hence the Bell Curve cannot apply to the modern day distribution of known channelers.
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
3153 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
- 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
893 Views
Androl did. *NM*
- 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
1080 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
- 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
1395 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
- 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
1488 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
1649 Views
Travelling
- 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
1377 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
1392 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
1357 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
1237 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
- 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
1180 Views
How strong Pevara is...
- 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
1543 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
- 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
1161 Views
Agreed
- 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
1309 Views
That was disproved long ago...
- 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
1341 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
- 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
1312 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
- 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
1355 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
- 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
1283 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
1243 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
1235 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
1160 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
1288 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
1257 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
1421 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
1504 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
1095 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
1192 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
1313 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
1112 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
1129 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
1222 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
1114 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
1310 Views
So what's your conclusion?
- 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
1094 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
- 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
1278 Views
Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
1079 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
1296 Views
You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
1064 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
1104 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
- 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
1052 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
1315 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
1212 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1111 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1111 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
1177 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
1149 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
1130 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
1134 Views
Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
1211 Views
Re: Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
1087 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
1130 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
1123 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
1236 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
1266 Views
Geography alone can do this
- 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
1110 Views
Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
1089 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
1301 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
1077 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
1053 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
1167 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
1105 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
1105 Views
Nope...
- 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
1252 Views
Re: Nope...
- 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
1092 Views
Oh my...
- 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
1124 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
- 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
1090 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
1035 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
1111 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
1150 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
1193 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
1111 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
1283 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
1147 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
1133 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
- 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
1193 Views
How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
1248 Views
Re: How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
1142 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
1111 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
1215 Views
Are you blind man?
- 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
1135 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
1122 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
- 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
1228 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
- 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
1260 Views
