Everyone today is below average. Because channelers are weaker today.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.
The defining property of a bell curve is that it shows the probability of finding a given value, as a function of the value, and that this probability distribution is shaped like a bell (hence the name), with the highest probability found at the average value.
I get that channelers are weaker in the Third Age, and are mostly found in the bottom half when using the same scale as during the Age of Legends. So while you can certainly use the same scale to discuss the strength of channelers in the Third Age and in the Age of Legends, it makes no sense to talk about the same bell curve, because the distribution of strengths are not the same.
We're saying exactly the same thing.
That a different distribution applied to the Age of Legends population as opposed to the Third Age population.
And I'm saying that the only way that RJ's "Bell Curve" description of channeler distribution can fit the facts as presented in the books, is if the Bell Curve he was referring to is the Age of Legends distribution, not the Third Age distribution.
Because, (to use the simplest possible example), on a Bell Curve the strongest possible channeler will be exactly twice the strength of the average channeler, and we know that it takes about 3 channelers of Moiraine's strength to match a Lanfear level channeler, therefore Moiraine cannot be higher than about 30 on the strength scale.
Hence the average strength channeler at 50 is almost twice as strong as Moiraine.
Clearly, therefore, all Aes Sedai weaker than Moiraine (which equates to about 99% of them) must fall under the lower part of the curve.
You cannot get away from that simple argument.
Hence the Bell Curve cannot apply to the modern day distribution of known channelers.
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
3188 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
- 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
912 Views
Androl did. *NM*
- 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
1103 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
- 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
1415 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
- 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
1541 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
1684 Views
Travelling
- 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
1397 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
1410 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
1375 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
1256 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
- 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
1219 Views
How strong Pevara is...
- 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
1585 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
- 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
1183 Views
Agreed
- 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
1325 Views
That was disproved long ago...
- 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
1374 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
- 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
1330 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
- 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
1396 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
- 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
1315 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
1261 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
1256 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
1176 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
1308 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
1275 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
1466 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
1540 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
1112 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
1215 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
1347 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
1130 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
1141 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
1240 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
1130 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
1333 Views
So what's your conclusion?
- 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
1111 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
- 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
1310 Views
Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
1099 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
1323 Views
You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
1083 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
1125 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
- 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
1070 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
1346 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
1226 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1127 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1127 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
1201 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
1177 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
1158 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
1151 Views
Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
1244 Views
Re: Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
1106 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
1149 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
1142 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
1269 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
1302 Views
Geography alone can do this
- 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
1131 Views
Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
1109 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
1336 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
1096 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
1070 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
1187 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
1139 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
1139 Views
Nope...
- 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
1272 Views
Re: Nope...
- 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
1114 Views
Oh my...
- 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
1141 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
- 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
1113 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
1060 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
1136 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
1195 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
1223 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
1129 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
1319 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
1166 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
1171 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
- 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
1223 Views
How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
1281 Views
Re: How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
1162 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
1133 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
1236 Views
Are you blind man?
- 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
1159 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
1139 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
- 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
1261 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
- 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
1281 Views
