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Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow Send a noteboard - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
Everyone today is below average. Because channelers are weaker today.

In other words, the Bell Curve would apply symmetrically to the channeling population of the Age of Legends. The remnants that are left today, on the other hand, mostly come from the bottom part of that Bell Curve.


The defining property of a bell curve is that it shows the probability of finding a given value, as a function of the value, and that this probability distribution is shaped like a bell (hence the name), with the highest probability found at the average value.

I get that channelers are weaker in the Third Age, and are mostly found in the bottom half when using the same scale as during the Age of Legends. So while you can certainly use the same scale to discuss the strength of channelers in the Third Age and in the Age of Legends, it makes no sense to talk about the same bell curve, because the distribution of strengths are not the same.


We're saying exactly the same thing.

That a different distribution applied to the Age of Legends population as opposed to the Third Age population.

And I'm saying that the only way that RJ's "Bell Curve" description of channeler distribution can fit the facts as presented in the books, is if the Bell Curve he was referring to is the Age of Legends distribution, not the Third Age distribution.

Because, (to use the simplest possible example), on a Bell Curve the strongest possible channeler will be exactly twice the strength of the average channeler, and we know that it takes about 3 channelers of Moiraine's strength to match a Lanfear level channeler, therefore Moiraine cannot be higher than about 30 on the strength scale.

Hence the average strength channeler at 50 is almost twice as strong as Moiraine.

Clearly, therefore, all Aes Sedai weaker than Moiraine (which equates to about 99% of them) must fall under the lower part of the curve.

You cannot get away from that simple argument.

Hence the Bell Curve cannot apply to the modern day distribution of known channelers.

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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2896 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 742 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 999 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1239 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1174 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 876 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1149 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1387 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1195 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1239 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1236 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1254 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1150 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1090 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1175 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 654 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1287 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 969 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1317 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1033 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1121 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1092 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1141 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1108 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1153 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1103 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1016 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1029 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1016 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1073 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1072 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 997 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1105 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1087 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1111 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1154 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 842 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1192 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 956 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1043 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1060 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 965 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 978 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 934 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1153 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 933 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1059 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1148 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 915 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1040 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 916 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 969 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 912 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1064 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1060 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 941 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 999 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 963 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 993 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1004 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1341 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1022 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1094 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 970 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 970 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 969 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 979 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 944 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 956 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 986 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1007 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1024 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 962 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 949 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 939 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 935 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1076 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 933 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 976 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 941 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1086 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 923 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 967 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 948 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 869 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1079 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 928 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 993 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 944 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 891 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 977 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1509 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 936 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 988 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 974 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1056 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1013 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1011 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 988 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 955 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1028 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 923 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 953 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 986 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 988 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1025 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 955 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 960 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 984 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1121 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1075 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 651 Views

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