It seems like it. What bothers me is that if Taim has actually succeeded in turning most of the Black Tower, that alone seems like it could turn the tables in the last battle. Do we have any updated numbers on the number of people in the various factions?
I've not really kept up on this.
It's pretty murky as to exact numbers at this point. A 1000 men is in the low range if Taim's recruiting as remained steady since TPOD. There's probably a few hundreds more now.
What we know is that Taim's faction consists of full Asha'man and they are in the 100-200 range (more or less a match to the survivors of the BA), but there's been new raisings since and there are those who are getting turned then trained and raised among the men Logain left behind at the BT. And of those it seems what's left for the Light is Androl, Pevara, some soldiers incl. the TR recruits.
Logain has taken out a lot, over half the men His last comment on the matter in KOD had "over half the BT" being in Illian/Tear or had followed Rand to Arad Doman, among those there were around 40-50 full Asha'man, most of the Dedicated and the most advanced Soldiers. None of these men is from Taim's faction, at least not openly (he surely must have DF infiltrated in the lot, surely he's not stupid enough to not have kept some genuine DF as moles among the Dedicated's and Soldier's ranks).
So the BT appears to be more or less a match to the WT, but it's got far less fully trained channellers, and it's divided in two between Logain and Taim. It's quite possible Taim's full Asha'man are much better trained for destruction and nasty battle tricks (it is somewhat a little less likely they have AOL soldiering level now we know Taim was raised Chosen. It decreases the odds Demandred has passed much of his OP battle knowledge if Taim isn't a loyal lieutenant he had control over), but even there the Light has made some progress after KOD after seeing Rand use mass destruction weaves and copying them, and no doubt discovering tons of new variants and possibilities (like female versions and so on), and starting to use mix gender works a lot. No doubt Logain has spread that knowledge among the men who've not gone with Rand to Arad Doman, and has continued to train the Dedicated.
A problem is that mixed gender works hasn't remained long an exclusivity of the Light, and Taim has turned women, possibly has access to far many more BA than turned women (if the BA is at the BT, they are hidden kept somewhere else for now, and they won't come out until the lightsiders are dealt with) . It's very likely all his faction is trained at leading circles now, while Logain has too few women, and we don't know if he's "loaned" the bonded AS so most men can learn to work in links with women. It's becoming rather urgent Logain's faction (incl. his Aes Sedai) spend time with the WT/WO/Windfinders, that the bonded sisters in particular return to teach AS all they've learned. Channelers seems to pick on fast on mixed gender works, at least as long as it's not too subtle work (like finding ways to use the other half to make weaves they know incredibly more powerful. The AS will have mighty hot and big fireballs now
).This is for now offset, only to an extent, by the fact the Light has a far, far larger capacity for large circles (it's got 1000+ novices, the WO and Windfinders to add to the total of AS), and Taim's forces are more unbalanced, having far from an optimal men to women ratio. Then, the Light is bound to have a fairly large pile of male and female angreal and less san'angreal, but some like Vora's Wand are pretty mighty.
So right now it's pretty much that in brute strength and effectives, the Light is ahead of the Shadow, but the Shadow likely has better trained and nastier fighters. Some of the drealords may even have access to the True Power.
So basically, Rand's absolutely right they mustn't wait long before striking at SG, but Egwene's right too. A compromise must be found to give a few weeks for Rand's channellers to train together and increase their combat skills for the big frontal face off with dreadlords (which at best will happen at SG itself), otherwise they might be easy meat wherever a large group of Dreadlords with hundreds of thousand Shadowspawn in support goes on the attack.
The thing that mustn't happen, what might completely unbalance things, is the Shadow managing to capture a huge amount of damane early on in the LB. And for the Shadow, it's a bit the reverse: the damane mustn't join the LB in Rand's forces, especially not with Mat in command... The Shadow has to hold off/distract the stronger enemy (Rand), wipe the Seanchan then regroup under Demandred to this time assault Rand's forces for real. Won't work, because the Pattern has sent Mat to Ebou Dar to take command of the Seanchan armies and interfere with Demandred's plans.
This message last edited by DomA on 26/10/2012 at 08:53:37 PM
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
3106 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
- 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
865 Views
Androl did. *NM*
- 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
1066 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
- 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
1369 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
- 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
1423 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
1589 Views
Travelling
- 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
1348 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
1365 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
1335 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
1208 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM
1367 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM
1434 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
- 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
1139 Views
How strong Pevara is...
- 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
1498 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
- 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
1133 Views
Agreed
- 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
1278 Views
That was disproved long ago...
- 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
1297 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
- 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
1286 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
- 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
1311 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
- 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
1241 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
1218 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
1208 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
1127 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
1259 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
1227 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
1364 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
1436 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
1068 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
1163 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
1269 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
1085 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
1092 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
1201 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
1085 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
1286 Views
So what's your conclusion?
- 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
1073 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
- 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
1236 Views
Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
1048 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
1256 Views
You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
1037 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
1076 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
- 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
1028 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
1270 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
1184 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1085 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1085 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
1146 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
1122 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
1096 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
1098 Views
Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
1170 Views
Re: Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
1064 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
1101 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
1096 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
1188 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
1219 Views
Geography alone can do this
- 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
1086 Views
Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
1064 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
1261 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
1049 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
1024 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
1138 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
1064 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
1065 Views
Nope...
- 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
1224 Views
Re: Nope...
- 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
1071 Views
Oh my...
- 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
1099 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
- 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
1062 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
1007 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
1081 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
1114 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
1156 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
1086 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
1244 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
1120 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
1099 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
- 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
1149 Views
How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
1207 Views
Re: How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
1111 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
1086 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
1188 Views
Are you blind man?
- 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
1111 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
1097 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
- 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
1177 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
- 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
1232 Views
