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This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM


Firstly, channeling strength IS linked to genetics. It is blatantly incorrect to say that it is solely linked to the soul.

In fact, it is linked to both the soul and the body. If Lews Therin's soul was reborn into a body that does not have sufficient strength, he will be weaker in the One Power than in his previous incarnation.

So yes, a weaker channeling gene pool will serve to reduce average strength.

Can we get some evidence for this?
Secondly, great work in applying a Bell Curve to the estimated channeler strengths of known channelers. It indeed clearly shows that the curve now spikes way lower than it did in the Age of Legends.

How do you figure? His bell curve spikes at level 10. That's exactly where you'd expect it to, given that level 10 is around strength 50!

Furthermore, RJ has confirmed that 62.5% of female channelers are strong enough to pass the Aes Sedai test (meaning they are as strong as Daigian or stronger). This means that only 12.5% of channelers lie between Daigian and the average strength channeler.

Exactly. Which is why strong Aes Sedai like Moiraine don't fit in this range.
We know that Daigian is roughly one third as strong as Moiraine.

Lets revisit this. As I understand it, you're basing this on this quote from Leanne right?


If Nynaeve couldn't Heal us all the way the first time, maybe she'll only take us to two-thirds what
we were, or half. Even that would be better than now; but still most here would be as strong, and a good many stronger.

So, a "good many" Aes Sedai are stronger than half of Siuan's old strength. How does this say that Daigian is a third as strong as Siuan's old strength? Nowhere is Leanne saying that double their current strength would take them to a level where a good many Aes Sedai would be stronger, and most as strong. Nowhere is she saying that three times her current strength would see her restored as before.

And we know that Lanfear is FAR more than twice as strong as Moiraine (meaning that Moiraine has to lie below the average strength channeler).

How do we "know" this?
All of this tells us that all modern Aes Sedai come from less than 12.5% of the total female channeling population. This HAS to be the case, because if 37.5% lie below Daigian, then 12.5% lie between Daigian and the average strength, and if Moiraine lies BELOW the average strength, then all modern sisters who fall between Daigian and Moiraine come from LESS than 12.5% of the total channeling population.

Yes, but the problem is our absurd assumption that Moiraine is less than the average strength of the curve. What is your basis for that?
There it is. Irrefutable, if you believe in the Bell Curve hypothesis.

The bell curve is not a hypothesis. It is fact. Your failure to understand this is at the root of your completely outdated strength list.
This message last edited by fionwe1987 on 29/10/2012 at 03:00:50 AM
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3104 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 865 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1066 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1369 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1423 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1014 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1259 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1587 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1306 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1364 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1347 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1363 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1333 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1207 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1365 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 767 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1433 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1137 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1496 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1131 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1276 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1231 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1261 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1297 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1284 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1307 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1239 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1217 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1145 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1215 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1206 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1127 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1258 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1224 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1361 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1293 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1173 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1434 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1068 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1162 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1266 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1083 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1091 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1199 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1082 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1286 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1071 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1183 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1266 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1236 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1047 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1253 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1034 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1074 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1025 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1268 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1182 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1083 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1229 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1126 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1145 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1122 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1529 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1162 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1247 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1107 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1093 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1096 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1168 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1060 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1101 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1094 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1185 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1219 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1085 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1063 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1049 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1064 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1259 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1048 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1109 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1115 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1276 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1022 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1138 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1064 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1064 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1222 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1071 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1099 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1061 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1007 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1080 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1695 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1114 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1156 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1084 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1242 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1119 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1098 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1146 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1204 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1107 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1077 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1205 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1141 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1086 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1188 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1108 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1133 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1070 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1067 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1096 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1176 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1232 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1235 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 766 Views
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