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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
I'm sure a full list of channelers exists in RJ's notes. I doubt we'll ever see it.

And I don't see why you would want to make a curve. Its not like what RJ said was a hypothesis that has to be proved. This is his world. His word is law.


Actually, the books are law. Hasn't there been a situation where RJ said something, which was contradicted by one of the books, and where he later corrected himself?

It is 62.5%. And the reason we don't see large numbers of Aes Sedai is that they haven't been actively recruiting, like the Black Tower. As we see with the 1000 novices who join the Rebels in response to Egwene's call (only about 200 of them are strong enough to be Aes Sedai), the subset of the population interested in becoming Aes Sedai is a bad sampling for the subset of the population that can become Aes Sedai. And the traditional Tower consisted mostly of women exclusively from the first type of sample.


Actually, this wraps up the discussion for me. If the probability of a randomly selected channeling woman being strong enough to become Aes Sedai is 62.5%, then the probability of the 1000 new novices only containing 200 women strong enough is 1.3*10^-163. And there is no reason to assume a bad sampling. I mean, by what mechanism could potentially strong people choose not to become Aes Sedai before the even know if they can channel? Hence, the books are inconsistent with the quotes, which means we don't have enough information to say anything about the distribution in the Age of Legends.
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3283 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 967 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1170 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1465 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1667 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1112 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1409 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1768 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1413 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1496 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1439 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1453 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1428 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1317 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1483 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 880 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1538 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1298 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1659 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1226 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1388 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1350 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1363 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1459 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1387 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1479 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1385 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1367 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1270 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1319 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1303 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1230 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1366 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1330 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1573 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1419 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1450 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1649 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1161 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1272 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1440 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1185 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1199 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1288 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1188 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1391 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1161 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1294 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1365 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1389 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1162 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1415 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1136 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1174 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1126 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1423 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1287 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1178 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1442 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1242 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1261 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1230 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1709 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1268 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1350 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1216 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1216 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1217 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1338 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1162 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1195 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1198 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1358 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1385 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1189 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1159 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1161 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1158 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1431 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1151 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1203 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1211 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1430 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1121 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1238 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1191 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1219 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1326 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1171 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1200 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1169 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1119 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1183 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1857 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1306 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1321 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1184 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1400 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1214 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1255 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1303 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1373 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1224 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1178 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1373 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1320 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1192 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1290 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1215 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1232 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1162 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1191 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1186 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1343 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1329 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1412 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 864 Views
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