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Huh? fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM


Actually, the books are law. Hasn't there been a situation where RJ said something, which was contradicted by one of the books, and where he later corrected himself?

That's the thing. He corrected himself. With this, RJ, Brandon and Maria have all confirmed the bell curve is true. Its not a single reference that could be mistaken.

Actually, this wraps up the discussion for me. If the probability of a randomly selected channeling woman being strong enough to become Aes Sedai is 62.5%, then the probability of the 1000 new novices only containing 200 women strong enough is 1.3*10^-163. And there is no reason to assume a bad sampling. I mean, by what mechanism could potentially strong people choose not to become Aes Sedai before the even know if they can channel? Hence, the books are inconsistent with the quotes, which means we don't have enough information to say anything about the distribution in the Age of Legends.

Why does there have to be a mechanism? Why do you expect the desire to be Aes Sedai to correlate in any way with the ability to be one? Those who can learn to channel don't have any sign that they possess this ability. Till they're told this, they're no different from normal people. It is not at all surprising then that there isn't a huge overlap between the sample set of women strong enough to be AS and the women who want to be AS.

Add to this DomA's point that Brandon actually saw graphs RJ had drawn, it becomes even more idiotic to question RJ on the mechanics of his own world.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3106 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 865 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1066 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1369 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1423 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1016 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1260 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1588 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1308 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1364 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1347 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1364 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1333 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1207 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1365 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 767 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1433 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1137 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1496 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1132 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1277 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1231 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1262 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1297 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1284 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1309 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1239 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1217 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1145 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1215 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1207 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1127 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1258 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1225 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1361 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1293 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1174 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1435 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1068 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1162 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1268 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1084 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1091 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1200 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1082 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1286 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1071 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1183 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1266 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1236 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1047 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1254 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1035 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1074 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1026 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1268 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1183 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1084 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1229 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1126 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1145 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1122 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1529 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1162 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1247 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1107 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1094 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1097 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1169 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1062 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1101 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1095 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1185 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1219 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1085 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1063 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1049 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1064 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1260 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1048 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1109 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1115 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1276 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1022 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1138 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1064 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1064 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1223 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1071 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1099 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1061 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1007 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1080 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1695 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1114 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1156 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1085 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1242 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1119 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1098 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1147 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1205 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1109 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1079 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1205 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1141 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1086 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1188 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1109 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1133 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1070 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1067 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1096 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1177 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1232 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1236 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 766 Views
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