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Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
in the bucket. We know that about 1% of the population has the ability. Which could mean something like 500,000 women have the ability which means 312,500 could be AS and 187,500 are too weak. Picking up a random 1000 women from a specific region who came without active recruitment isn't a representative sample of female channelers. For all we know Northern Altaran women are generally weak in the power.


There is no reason to assume that the 1000 novices are not a random sample. If you were sampling something like income or political opinion or longevity, it would make sense to look at it more carefully, as where you live can be correlated with these things. However, I don't see any plausible way that channeling strength among people who don't yet know they can channel could in any way be correlated with things like where you live or whether you would like to become Aes Sedai.

And with the potential channeling population being that large, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that each of the novices has a 62.5% chance of being strong enough to become Aes Sedai. And if this is the case, it is flat out impossible that only 200 out of 1000 are strong enough.

And what do you mean by Northern Altaran women being generally weak in the power? Didn't you just yesterday say that strength in channeling isn't genetic, and that it is unreasonable that genetics could cause a general drop in channeling strength since the Age of Legends?
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2692 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 654 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 905 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1015 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 956 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 686 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 981 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1182 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1019 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1069 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1041 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1037 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 956 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 905 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 991 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 578 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1089 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 799 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1111 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 862 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 944 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 892 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 945 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 899 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 951 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 901 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 830 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 830 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 846 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 895 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 897 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 790 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 909 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 879 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 933 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 989 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 691 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 927 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 824 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 864 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 867 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 786 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 768 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 764 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 948 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 720 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 859 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 955 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 725 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 828 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 748 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 763 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 743 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 867 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 861 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 759 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 808 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 783 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 788 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 817 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1161 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 832 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 903 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 823 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 799 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 770 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 767 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 783 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 782 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 816 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 820 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 841 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 791 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 775 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 737 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 740 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 881 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 748 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 806 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 761 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 890 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 746 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 782 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 747 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 697 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 890 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 738 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 833 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 750 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 699 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 787 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1317 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 767 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 794 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 777 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 849 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 792 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 820 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 793 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 757 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 845 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 721 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 758 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 783 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 801 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 827 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 776 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 771 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 772 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 920 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 903 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 570 Views

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