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Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
in the bucket. We know that about 1% of the population has the ability. Which could mean something like 500,000 women have the ability which means 312,500 could be AS and 187,500 are too weak. Picking up a random 1000 women from a specific region who came without active recruitment isn't a representative sample of female channelers. For all we know Northern Altaran women are generally weak in the power.


There is no reason to assume that the 1000 novices are not a random sample. If you were sampling something like income or political opinion or longevity, it would make sense to look at it more carefully, as where you live can be correlated with these things. However, I don't see any plausible way that channeling strength among people who don't yet know they can channel could in any way be correlated with things like where you live or whether you would like to become Aes Sedai.

And with the potential channeling population being that large, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that each of the novices has a 62.5% chance of being strong enough to become Aes Sedai. And if this is the case, it is flat out impossible that only 200 out of 1000 are strong enough.

And what do you mean by Northern Altaran women being generally weak in the power? Didn't you just yesterday say that strength in channeling isn't genetic, and that it is unreasonable that genetics could cause a general drop in channeling strength since the Age of Legends?
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3190 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 912 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1103 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1417 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1541 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1063 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1330 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1684 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1361 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1419 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1399 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1412 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1377 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1257 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1425 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 821 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1483 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1219 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1586 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1184 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1326 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1287 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1311 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1375 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1330 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1396 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1316 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1286 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1207 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1262 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1258 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1178 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1309 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1276 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1466 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1358 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1316 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1541 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1113 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1217 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1348 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1132 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1143 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1131 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1334 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1113 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1238 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1312 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1101 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1325 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1085 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1126 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1072 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1348 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1227 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1129 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1336 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1189 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1202 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1179 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1622 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1211 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1293 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1162 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1158 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1152 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1246 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1107 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1150 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1144 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1271 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1303 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1132 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1112 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1109 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1111 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1336 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1098 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1158 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1169 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1345 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1071 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1187 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1141 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1140 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1274 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1116 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1142 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1114 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1062 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1137 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1775 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1196 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1224 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1131 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1321 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1168 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1281 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1164 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1121 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1282 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1238 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1134 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1238 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1159 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1180 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1115 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1129 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1141 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1282 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1316 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 815 Views

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