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Nope... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM

Becaus if there isn't you would expect the 1000 novices to form a representative sample of the population. Because 1000 people is plenty enough to say something about the probability of only 200 of them being strong enough, and it's so unlikely as to be impossible.

No, no you don't. This is not a truly random sample. Which is why you're not seeing the statistical distribution expected of a random sample. Why a particular non-random sample doesn't fit the curve isn't a matter of some specific mechanism.

Take pre-election polls, for example. A truly random sampling would give you an estimate of the final voting trends. But if you make it non-random, but not by selecting for a particular demographic, you will get weird results. For example, if you condict the polling not by calling random people, but by having random people call you in, your results will be skewed. But it won't be skewed due to one particular mechanism. What is distinguishing this sample set from a random sample is that you're asking members of the set to call in. And people call in for a variety of reasons, all of which may skew results one way or another.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3007 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 800 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1032 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1307 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1299 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 944 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1198 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1484 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1244 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1294 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1291 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1301 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1269 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1145 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1285 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 716 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1360 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1052 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1412 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1084 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1203 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1158 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1207 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1204 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1217 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1207 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1119 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1134 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1081 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1153 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1130 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1056 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1198 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1165 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1229 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1224 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1003 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1313 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 998 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1088 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1161 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1024 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1033 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1121 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1010 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1226 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1010 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1119 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1198 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1154 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 983 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1144 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 973 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1015 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 963 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1169 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1122 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1023 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1112 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1035 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1073 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1053 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1442 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1079 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1186 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1036 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1021 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1038 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1072 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 993 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1024 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1035 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1087 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1116 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1020 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 997 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 984 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 986 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1165 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 990 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1037 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1046 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1190 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 970 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1066 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 995 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 964 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1152 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1000 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1048 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 991 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 940 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1029 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1588 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1018 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1068 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1023 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1150 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1061 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1004 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1050 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1124 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1048 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1020 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1109 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1049 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1014 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1107 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1039 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1072 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1008 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1012 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1033 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1074 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1167 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1153 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 714 Views
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