In the real world a global statistic could be that 30% of the world population is of Chinese decent ... But if you were to take a random sample of 1000 people in Sweden the odds are you will come up with far fewer people of Chinese decent. Further if you took 1000 people who were In Sweden and were Political Science majors looking to enter a Masters Program you may well have even fewer.
Do you seriously not see that "living in Sweden" is way more likely to be correlated with "not being Chinese" than "wanting to become Aes Sedai" to be correlated with "quite a lot weaker than average, even though I don't know I can channel yet"?
Ad I didn't say I believed genetics had nothing to do with strength. Clearly the Soul plays a part, but we've seen too many examples of breeding creating Channelers of strength... Talaan and her whole family for instance.
Ok, fair enough. So to return to the original point, isn't it then possible that the curve could have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?
Swedish people in general are also more likely to be much taller than Chinese people if you prefer to use height as the example, or have a higher percentage of blonde than etc.... The point being there are going to be regional variations based on genetics/breeding.
No the overall BC would not have shifted. Certainly it has in specific regions, making it possible for the TR to breed more Channelers and stronger Channelers and potentially the region where the AS picked up these 1000 to breed fewer and/or weaker. But in the overall scheme the Curve is the Curve, RJ was speaking of the present day when he was quoted on the 62.5% and he made no caveats about current day strength etc ...
You can believe that 1000 is not a tiny sample, but no statistician would ever tell you that a regionally confined sample representing such a small % of a population is reliably projectable as a sample. Things we can assume about the WoT populacation. There are a dozen or so cities of significant size representing in the ballpark of 8-10MM people. With the population being heavily skewed outside of the cities we can assume a total population in the Westlands of maybe 50M. This means in just this population there should be roughly 250k women with the ability. Factor in Seanchan Aiel, Sea Folk and Shara, and we may be looking at a channeling population of over 1M and from vastly varied regions and genetic circumstances. Sharans from what we know actively breed the trait so it's possible they have increased the % of the population to 3% or maybe higher if that is possible. Seanchan effectively eliminate all Sparkers from the breeding pool, but nearly all female non-Spakers are found and are given places of high standing and likely breed normally. We've seen more strong women among the Aiel and SF than maybe we should have (I'll leave that to speculation since the author tended to put stronger Channelers at the forefront of his story lines).
Net result is we don't have anywhere close to a representative sample with what amounts to about 1% of 1% and that number is heavily regionally skewed. It would be like trying to project something on a global scale based only on the population on Topeka Kansas. Some things will likely work out, but the regional bias will have a heavy effect.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 30/10/2012 at 02:52:30 PM
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
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Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
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Androl did. *NM*
25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
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But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
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Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
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Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
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Travelling
25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
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Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
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Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
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How strong Pevara is...
25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
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I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
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Agreed
25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
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That was disproved long ago...
26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
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But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
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Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
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But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
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The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
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Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
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The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
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Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
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You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
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I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
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Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
- 755 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
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Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
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So what's your conclusion?
29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
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you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
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Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
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Re: Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
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You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
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I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
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He drew graphs!
30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
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Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
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Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
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Huh?
29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
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Re: Huh?
29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
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You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
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Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
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Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
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Geography alone can do this
30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
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Re: Geography alone can do this
30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM
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Not really
30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM
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Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
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Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
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Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
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Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
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Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
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Nope...
30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
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Re: Nope...
30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
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Oh my...
30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
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Thought experment time! Hurrah!
30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
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But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
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Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
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Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
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The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
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Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
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The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
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The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
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Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
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There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
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How is this fact?
29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
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Re: How is this fact?
29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
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Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
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Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
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Are you blind man?
30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
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Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
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Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
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On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
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