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Not really darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM
In the real world a global statistic could be that 30% of the world population is of Chinese decent ... But if you were to take a random sample of 1000 people in Sweden the odds are you will come up with far fewer people of Chinese decent. Further if you took 1000 people who were In Sweden and were Political Science majors looking to enter a Masters Program you may well have even fewer.


Do you seriously not see that "living in Sweden" is way more likely to be correlated with "not being Chinese" than "wanting to become Aes Sedai" to be correlated with "quite a lot weaker than average, even though I don't know I can channel yet"?

Ad I didn't say I believed genetics had nothing to do with strength. Clearly the Soul plays a part, but we've seen too many examples of breeding creating Channelers of strength... Talaan and her whole family for instance.


Ok, fair enough. So to return to the original point, isn't it then possible that the curve could have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?


Swedish people in general are also more likely to be much taller than Chinese people if you prefer to use height as the example, or have a higher percentage of blonde than etc.... The point being there are going to be regional variations based on genetics/breeding.

No the overall BC would not have shifted. Certainly it has in specific regions, making it possible for the TR to breed more Channelers and stronger Channelers and potentially the region where the AS picked up these 1000 to breed fewer and/or weaker. But in the overall scheme the Curve is the Curve, RJ was speaking of the present day when he was quoted on the 62.5% and he made no caveats about current day strength etc ...

You can believe that 1000 is not a tiny sample, but no statistician would ever tell you that a regionally confined sample representing such a small % of a population is reliably projectable as a sample. Things we can assume about the WoT populacation. There are a dozen or so cities of significant size representing in the ballpark of 8-10MM people. With the population being heavily skewed outside of the cities we can assume a total population in the Westlands of maybe 50M. This means in just this population there should be roughly 250k women with the ability. Factor in Seanchan Aiel, Sea Folk and Shara, and we may be looking at a channeling population of over 1M and from vastly varied regions and genetic circumstances. Sharans from what we know actively breed the trait so it's possible they have increased the % of the population to 3% or maybe higher if that is possible. Seanchan effectively eliminate all Sparkers from the breeding pool, but nearly all female non-Spakers are found and are given places of high standing and likely breed normally. We've seen more strong women among the Aiel and SF than maybe we should have (I'll leave that to speculation since the author tended to put stronger Channelers at the forefront of his story lines).

Net result is we don't have anywhere close to a representative sample with what amounts to about 1% of 1% and that number is heavily regionally skewed. It would be like trying to project something on a global scale based only on the population on Topeka Kansas. Some things will likely work out, but the regional bias will have a heavy effect.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 30/10/2012 at 02:52:30 PM
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2689 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 653 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 904 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1012 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 953 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 683 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 978 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1179 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1016 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1065 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1038 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1034 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 953 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 902 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 988 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 577 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1086 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 796 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1108 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 859 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 940 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 889 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 942 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 896 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 948 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 898 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 827 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 826 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 842 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 892 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 893 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 787 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 906 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 876 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 930 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 985 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 688 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 923 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 821 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 861 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 864 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 783 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 765 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 760 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 945 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 717 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 856 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 952 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 722 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 825 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 744 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 760 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 739 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 864 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 858 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 756 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 806 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 780 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 785 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 814 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1158 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 829 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 899 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 820 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 796 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 767 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 763 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 780 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 779 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 813 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 816 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 838 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 789 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 772 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 734 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 738 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 877 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 745 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 803 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 759 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 888 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 743 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 780 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 745 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 694 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 888 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 735 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 831 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 747 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 697 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 784 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1315 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 764 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 792 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 775 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 847 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 789 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 818 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 791 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 755 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 843 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 719 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 756 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 781 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 798 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 825 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 774 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 769 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 770 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 918 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 901 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 570 Views

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