In the real world a global statistic could be that 30% of the world population is of Chinese decent ... But if you were to take a random sample of 1000 people in Sweden the odds are you will come up with far fewer people of Chinese decent. Further if you took 1000 people who were In Sweden and were Political Science majors looking to enter a Masters Program you may well have even fewer.
Do you seriously not see that "living in Sweden" is way more likely to be correlated with "not being Chinese" than "wanting to become Aes Sedai" to be correlated with "quite a lot weaker than average, even though I don't know I can channel yet"?
Ad I didn't say I believed genetics had nothing to do with strength. Clearly the Soul plays a part, but we've seen too many examples of breeding creating Channelers of strength... Talaan and her whole family for instance.
Ok, fair enough. So to return to the original point, isn't it then possible that the curve could have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?
Swedish people in general are also more likely to be much taller than Chinese people if you prefer to use height as the example, or have a higher percentage of blonde than etc.... The point being there are going to be regional variations based on genetics/breeding.
No the overall BC would not have shifted. Certainly it has in specific regions, making it possible for the TR to breed more Channelers and stronger Channelers and potentially the region where the AS picked up these 1000 to breed fewer and/or weaker. But in the overall scheme the Curve is the Curve, RJ was speaking of the present day when he was quoted on the 62.5% and he made no caveats about current day strength etc ...
You can believe that 1000 is not a tiny sample, but no statistician would ever tell you that a regionally confined sample representing such a small % of a population is reliably projectable as a sample. Things we can assume about the WoT populacation. There are a dozen or so cities of significant size representing in the ballpark of 8-10MM people. With the population being heavily skewed outside of the cities we can assume a total population in the Westlands of maybe 50M. This means in just this population there should be roughly 250k women with the ability. Factor in Seanchan Aiel, Sea Folk and Shara, and we may be looking at a channeling population of over 1M and from vastly varied regions and genetic circumstances. Sharans from what we know actively breed the trait so it's possible they have increased the % of the population to 3% or maybe higher if that is possible. Seanchan effectively eliminate all Sparkers from the breeding pool, but nearly all female non-Spakers are found and are given places of high standing and likely breed normally. We've seen more strong women among the Aiel and SF than maybe we should have (I'll leave that to speculation since the author tended to put stronger Channelers at the forefront of his story lines).
Net result is we don't have anywhere close to a representative sample with what amounts to about 1% of 1% and that number is heavily regionally skewed. It would be like trying to project something on a global scale based only on the population on Topeka Kansas. Some things will likely work out, but the regional bias will have a heavy effect.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 30/10/2012 at 02:52:30 PM
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
3188 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
- 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
912 Views
Androl did. *NM*
- 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
1103 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
- 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
1415 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
- 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
1541 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
- 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
1684 Views
Travelling
- 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
1397 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
1411 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
1375 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
- 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
1256 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
- 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
1219 Views
How strong Pevara is...
- 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
1585 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
- 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
1183 Views
Agreed
- 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
1325 Views
That was disproved long ago...
- 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
1374 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
- 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
1330 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
- 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
1396 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
- 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
1315 Views
The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
1261 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
1256 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
1176 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
1308 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
1275 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained...
- 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
1466 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
1540 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
1112 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
- 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
1217 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
1347 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
1131 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
1142 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
- 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
1240 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
1130 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
- 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
1333 Views
So what's your conclusion?
- 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
1111 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
- 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
1311 Views
Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
1100 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
1324 Views
You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
1084 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
1126 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
- 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
1071 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
1346 Views
Re: You seem confused.
- 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
1226 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1127 Views
He drew graphs!
- 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
1127 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
1201 Views
Re: Excellent points...
- 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
1177 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
1158 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
- 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
1151 Views
Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
1244 Views
Re: Huh?
- 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
1106 Views
You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
1149 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
1142 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
1270 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
- 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
1302 Views
Geography alone can do this
- 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
1131 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this
- 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM
1111 Views
Not really
- 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM
1109 Views
Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
1109 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
1336 Views
Re: Here's why its not random...
- 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
1097 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
1070 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
- 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
1187 Views
Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
1139 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
- 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
1139 Views
Nope...
- 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
1272 Views
Re: Nope...
- 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
1115 Views
Oh my...
- 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
1141 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah!
- 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
1113 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
1060 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
- 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
1136 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
- 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
1195 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
1223 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
- 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
1129 Views
The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
1319 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
1166 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
- 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
1171 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
- 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
1223 Views
How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
1281 Views
Re: How is this fact?
- 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
1163 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
1133 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
- 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
1236 Views
Are you blind man?
- 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
1159 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
- 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
1139 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
- 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
1261 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
- 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
1281 Views
